Multi-Scale Governance of Sustainable Natural Resource Use—Challenges and Opportunities for Monitoring and Institutional Development at the National and Global Level

In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an “inspiration cycle” between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.

Exact algorithms for p-adic fields and epsilon constant conjectures

We develop several algorithms for computations in Galois extensions of p-adic fields. Our algorithms are based on existing algorithms for number fields and are exact in the sense that we do not need to consider approximations to p-adic numbers. As an application we describe an algorithmic approach to prove or disprove various conjectures for local and global epsilon constants.

Generic Finite Element Model for Mechanically Consistent Scaling of Composite Beam-to-column Joint with Welded Connection

To study the behaviour of beam-to-column composite connection more sophisticated finite element models is required, since component model has some severe limitations. In this research a generic finite element model for composite beam-to-column joint with welded connections is developed using current state of the art local modelling. Applying mechanically consistent scaling method, it can provide the constitutive relationship for a plane rectangular macro element with beam-type boundaries. Then, this defined macro element, which preserves local behaviour and allows for the transfer of five independent states between local and global models, can be implemented in high-accuracy frame analysis with the possibility of limit state checks. In order that macro element for scaling method can be used in practical manner, a generic geometry program as a new idea proposed in this study is also developed for this finite element model. With generic programming a set of global geometric variables can be input to generate a specific instance of the connection without much effort. The proposed finite element model generated by this generic programming is validated against testing results from University of Kaiserslautern. Finally, two illustrative examples for applying this macro element approach are presented. In the first example how to obtain the constitutive relationships of macro element is demonstrated. With certain assumptions for typical composite frame the constitutive relationships can be represented by bilinear laws for the macro bending and shear states that are then coupled by a two-dimensional surface law with yield and failure surfaces. In second example a scaling concept that combines sophisticated local models with a frame analysis using a macro element approach is presented as a practical application of this numerical model.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Interrelatedness of grazing livestock with vegetation parameters and farmers’ livelihoods in the Mahafaly region, southwestern Madagascar

The study aims to get deeper insight into the highly extensive system of animal husbandry in the Mahafaly region of southwestern Madagascar. It tries to understand the major drivers for pastoral dynamics, land and resource use along a gradient in altitude and vegetation to consider the area’s high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The study also analyzes the reproductive performance of local livestock as well as the owners’ culling strategies to determine herd dynamics, opportunities for economic growth, and future potential for rural development. Across seasons, plateau herds from both livestock species covered longer distances (cattle 13.6±3.02 km, goats 12.3±3.48 km) and were found further away from the settlements (cattle 3.1±0.96 km, goats 2.8±0.98 km) than those from the coastal plain (walking_dist: cattle 9.5±3.25 km, goats 9.2±2.57 km; max_dist: cattle 2.6±1.28 km, goats 1.8±0.61 km). Transhumant cattle were detected more vulnerable through limited access to pasture land and water resources compared to local herds. Seasonal water shortage has been confirmed as a key constraint on the plateau while livestock keeping along the coast is more limited by dry season forage availability. However, recent security issues and land use conflicts with local crop farmers are gaining importance and force livestock owners to adapt their traditional grazing management, resulting in spatio-temporal variation of livestock numbers and in the impending risk of local overgrazing and degradation of rangelands. Among the 133 plant species consumed by livestock, 13 were determined of major importance for the animals’ nutrition. The nutritive value and digestibility of the natural forage, as well as its abundance in the coastal zone, substantially decreased over the course of the dry season and emphasized the importance of supplementary forage plants, in particular Euphorbia stenoclada. At the same time, an unsustainable utilization and overexploitation of its wild stocks may raise the pressure on the vegetation and pasture resources within the nearby Tsimanampetsotsa National Park. Age at first parturition was 40.5±0.59 months for cattle and 21.3±0.63 months for goats. Both species showed long parturition intervals (cattle 24.2±0.48 months, goats 12.4±0.30 months), mostly due to the maintenance of poorly performing breeding females within the herds. Reported offspring mortality, however, was low with 2.5% of cattle and 18.8% of goats dying before reaching maturity. The analysis of economic information revealed higher than expected market dynamics, especially for zebus, resulting in annual contribution margins of 33 € per cattle unit and 11 € per goat unit. The application of the PRY Herd Life model to simulate herd development for present management and two alternate scenarios confirmed the economic profitability of the current livestock system and showed potential for further productive and economic development. However, this might be clearly limited by the region’s restricted carrying capacity. Summarizing, this study illustrates the highly extensive and resources-driven character of the livestock system in the Mahafaly region, with herd mobility being a central element to cope with seasonal shortages in forage and water. But additional key drivers and external factors are gaining importance and increasingly affect migration decisions and grazing management. This leads to an increased risk of local overgrazing and overexploitation of natural pasture resources and intensifies the tension between pastoral and conservation interests. At the same time, it hampers the region’s agronomic development, which has not yet been fully exploited. The situation therefore demonstrates the need for practical improvement suggestions and implication measures, such as the systematic forestation of supplemental forage plant species in the coastal zone or a stronger integration of animal husbandry and crop production, to sustain the traditional livestock system without compromising peoples’ livelihoods while at the same time minimizing the pastoral impact on the area’s unique nature and environment.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.