Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

River ecosystems at risk

Worldwide water managers are increasingly challenged to allocate sufficient and affordable water supplies to different water use sectors without further degrading river ecosystems and their valuable services to mankind. Since 1950 human population almost tripled, water abstractions increased by a factor of four, and the number of large dam constructions is about eight times higher today. From a hydrological perspective, the alteration of river flows (temporally and spatially) is one of the main consequences of global change and further impairments can be expected given growing population pressure and projected climate change. Implications have been addressed in numerous hydrological studies, but with a clear focus on human water demands. Ecological water requirements have often been neglected or addressed in a very simplistic manner, particularly from the large-scale perspective. With his PhD thesis, Christof Schneider took up the challenge to assess direct (dam operation and water abstraction) and indirect (climate change) impacts of human activities on river flow regimes and evaluate the consequences for river ecosystems by using a modeling approach. The global hydrology model WaterGAP3 (developed at CESR) was applied and further developed within this thesis to carry out several model experiments and assess anthropogenic river flow regime modifications and their effects on river ecosystems. To address the complexity of ecological water requirements the assessment is based on three main ideas: (i) the natural flow paradigm, (ii) the perception that different flows have different ecological functions, and (iii) the flood pulse concept. The thesis shows that WaterGAP3 performs well in representing ecologically relevant flow characteristics on a daily time step, and therefore justifies its application within this research field. For the first time a methodology was established to estimate bankfull flow on a 5 by 5 arc minute grid cell raster globally, which is a key parameter in eFlow assessments as it marks the point where rivers hydraulically connect to adjacent floodplains. Management of dams and water consumption pose a risk to floodplains and riparian wetlands as flood volumes are significantly reduced. The thesis highlights that almost one-third of 93 selected Ramsar sites are seriously affected by modified inundation patterns today, and in the future, inundation patterns are very likely to be further impaired as a result of new major dam initiatives and climate change. Global warming has been identified as a major threat to river flow regimes as rising temperatures, declining snow cover, changing precipitation patterns and increasing climate variability are expected to seriously modify river flow regimes in the future. Flow regimes in all climate zones will be affected, in particular the polar zone (Northern Scandinavia) with higher river flows during the year and higher flood peaks in spring. On the other side, river flows in the Mediterranean are likely to be even more intermittent in the future because of strong reductions in mean summer precipitation as well as a decrease in winter precipitation, leading to an increasing number of zero flow events creating isolated pools along the river and transitions from lotic to lentic waters. As a result, strong impacts on river ecosystem integrity can be expected. Already today, large amounts of water are withdrawn in this region for agricultural irrigation and climate change is likely to exacerbate the current situation of water shortages.

Analyzing Gene Centres with the Help of the Checklist Method – the Case of Syria

The present survey of species diversity of cultivated plants is the first for Syria. Some cultivated species will be added in the future, because due to the civil war in Syria, it was not possible to visit the country in the frame of the present work, as initially planned. Checklists proved to be a useful tool for overviewing the cultivated plants of selected areas and allow a characterization of the state of plant genetic resources of Syria. Syria has experienced several civilizations. Man settled in this productive land since ancient times and used its resources. However, such use has led to changes in vegetation and decline of wildlife through the country, in seashore areas, interior, mountains, and grassland. Plant domestication and growing started more than 10,000 years ago in West Asia. Since then, plentiful of economic plant species were present and used by man and his domesticated animals. Forming a part of the Fertile Crescent, where many of the world’s agricultural plants have evolved, Syria is extremely rich in agrobiodiversity. Wild progenitors of wheat and barley and wild relatives of many fruit trees such as almonds and pistachio as well as forage species are still found in marginal lands and less disturbed areas. These are threatened by a wide range of human activities, notably modern, extensive agriculture, overgrazing, overcutting and urban expansion. Syria is also considered as part of one of the main centres of origin, according to Vavilov, who had collected in Syria in 1926. The first expeditions to crop fields showed the exclusive nature of cultivated plants in Syria with a high number of endemic forms. Furthermore, Syria is a part of a biodiversity hotspot. Several studies have been performed to study agrobiodiversity in different parts of Syria, but usually on wild species. Many collections have been carried out; however, they focussed preferably on cereals and pulses, and particularly on wheat, like Vavilov’s expedition. Only 30 crops make up the major part of the conserved Syrian crop plant material in the genebank, indicating that most of the remaining 7,000 species of cultivated plants and many other valuable genetic resources species have only been included on a limited scale in the genebank collections. Although a small country (185,180 km2), Syria accommodates numerous ecosystems that allow for a large diversity of plant genetic resources for agriculture ranging from cold-requiring to subtropical crops to live and thrive. Only few references are available in this respect. The aim of the present study was to complete a checklist of Syria’s cultivated plants of agriculture and horticulture excluding plants only grown as ornamental or for forestry. Furthermore, plants taken for reforestation have not been included, if they do not have also agricultural or horticultural uses. Therefore, the inclusion of plants into the checklist follows the same principles as “Mansfeld’s Encyclopedia”. Main sources of information were published literature, floras of Syria, Lebanon and the Mediterranean, as well as Syrian printed sources in Arabic and/or English, reports from FAO on agricultural statistics in Syria, and data from ICARDA and Bioversity International. In addition, personal observations gathered during professional work in the General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR) in Syria (since 1989) and participation in projects were taken into account. These were: (1) A project on “Conservation and Sustainable Use of Dry Land Agrobiodiversity in the Near East” with participation of Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinian Authority, focussing on landraces and wild relatives of barley, wheat, lentil, alliums, feed legumes, and fruit trees (1999–2005). (2) A project for vegetable landraces (1993–1995) in collaboration with the former International Plant Genetic Resources Institute and the UN Development Programme, in which 380 local vegetable accessions were evaluated. For medicinal plants and fruit trees I was in personal contact with departments of GCSAR and the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, as well as with private organizations. The resulting checklist was compared with the catalogues of crop plants of Italy and a checklist of cultivated plants of Iraq. The cultivated plant species are presented in alphabetical order according to their accepted scientific names. Each entry consists of a nomenclatural part, folk names, details of plant uses, the distribution in Syria (by provinces), a textual description, and references to literature. In total, 262 species belonging to 146 genera and 57 families were identified. Within-species (intraspecific) diversity is a significant measure of the biodiversity. Intraspecific diversity for wild plants has been and remains to be well studied, but for crop plants there are only few results. Mansfeld’s method is an actual logical contribution to such studies. Among the families, the following have the highest number of crop species: Leguminosae (34 spp.), Rosaceae (24), Gramineae (18), Labiatae (18), Compositae (14), Cruciferae (14), Cucurbitaceae (11), Rutaceae (10), Malvaceae (9), Alliaceae (7), and Anacardiaceae (7). The establishment of an effective programme for the maintenance of plant genetic resources in Syria started in the mid-1970s. This programme considered ex situ and in situ collection of the genetic resources of various field crops, fruit trees and vegetables. From a plant genetic resources viewpoint, it is clear that the homegarden is an important location for the cultivation of so-called neglected and underutilized species (neglected from a research side and underutilized from a larger economic side). Such species have so far not received much care from ecologists, botanists and agronomists, and they are considerably under-represented in genebanks.