Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Von den Markenteilungen bis zum Emscher Landschaftspark: Freiraumverluste und Freiraumschutz im Ruhrgebiet

In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Erfolge und Misserfolge der Freiraumpolitik im Ruhrgebiet untersucht. Ausgangspunkte sind der Freiraumschwund, der über einen Zeitraum von fast 200 Jahren dokumentiert wird, sowie die Gegenbewegungen, die sich für den Freiraumschutz einsetzen. Nach der Vorstellung einer Freiraumtypologie werden diese Entwicklungen in detaillierten historischen Abrissen für jeden Freiraumtyp dargestellt, woraus sich eine eigene Ruhrgebietsgeschichte - aus der Perspektive der Freiflächen und ihrer Nutzer - ergibt. Folgerichtig beginnt die vorliegende Arbeit nicht mit Kohle und Eisen, sondern mit der Land- und Forstwirtschaft. Anhand historischer Quellen wird die gängige Am-Anfang-war-die-Heide-These widerlegt, denn das Ruhrgebiet war waldreich und ein produktiver Agrarraum. Landwirtschaftliche Flächen- und Waldverluste sind die Basis der Siedlungstätigkeit. Ohne die Gemeinheitsteilungen im 19. Jahrhundert wären die Stadterweiterungen und Industrieansiedlungen im Ruhrgebiet nicht möglich gewesen. Die - in Grundzügen im Ersten Weltkrieg entwickelte - Agrarpolitik mit der Förderung von Produktivitätssteigerungen und Hofaufgaben erleichterte den weiteren Entzug von Agrarflächen, und genauso wirkt heute die Liberalisierung der Agrarmärkte. Alternative Ansätze (z.B. Direktvermarktung) konnten diesen Trend noch nicht aufhalten. Auch das Baumschutzgesetz von 1922 konnte die nationalsozialistischen Kahlschläge, die Waldverluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg und durch den Wiederaufbau nicht verhindern. Erst seit der Deindustrialisierung, der Aufforstung von Halden und der Umweltbewegung nehmen Wälder wieder zu. Demgegenüber treten Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts völlig neue Freiraumtypen auf. Die bürgerschaftliche Kleingartenbewegung wurde dank ihrer Bedeutung für die Ernährung in den Städten seit dem Ersten Weltkrieg vom Staat stark unterstützt, von den Nationalsozialisten gleichgeschaltet, konnte aber in den 1950er Jahren ihren bürgerschaftlichen Charakter und ihre Stärke wieder zurückgewinnen. Auch wenn Kleingärten als bauliche Reserveflächen missbraucht werden, geschieht dies nicht mehr ohne Ersatzland. Im Unterschied hierzu wurde die Stadtparkbewegung kommunalisiert. Sodann entstanden Volksparks mit Sportanlagen, ästhetisch ausgerichtete Gartenschauen, die breit gefächerten Revierparks der 1970er Jahre und neue Parktypen im Emscher Landschaftspark. 1920 wird der Siedlungsverband Ruhrkohlenbezirk gegründet, der mit den Verbandsgrünflächen ein eigenes Instrument zum Freiraumschutz und die Kompetenz zur Fluchtlinien- bzw. Bebauungsplanung erhielt. Inzwischen darf der Verband, vor einigen Jahren in den Regionalverband Ruhr umgewandelt, zu kommunalen Planungen nur noch Stellungnahmen abgeben. Schon früh versuchte der Verband, industrielles Ödland zu begrünen. Nach den Bahndammbegrünungen vor dem Zweiten Weltkrieg hat er seit den 1950er Jahren Halden aufgeforstet, bis in den 1990er Jahren der Aufbau des Emscher Landschaftsparks begann. Zechen- und Industriebrachen werden in neue Parks, Halden und Mülldeponien in Landmarken und Freizeitlandschaften verwandelt. Zu fragen ist, was aus diesen Geschichten für die Freiraumpolitik folgt. Zwei gegensätzliche Thesen werden diskutiert: die Tragedy of the Commons, die im Gemeineigentum die Ursache ökologischer Probleme sieht, während der Common-Property-Ansatz gerade in gemeinschaftlichen Nutzungen einen Ansatz für Problemlösungen sieht. Dabei liegt eine Besonderheit von Freiräumen in ihrem hohen Öffentlichkeitsgrad, d.h. dass sie von vielen Menschen genutzt werden und gleichzeitig mehrere, z.B. produktive, ökologische, politische oder berufliche Funktionen erfüllen. Untersucht wird, inwieweit erfolgreich gesicherte Freiflächen Merkmale von stabilen Common-Property-Institutionen tragen, d.h. welche Funktionen die Freiräume erfüllen, wie ihre Nutzung geregelt ist und vor allem welchen Einfluss die Nutzer auf Entscheidungen haben. Thesenhaft lässt sich zusammenfassen, dass ein Teil der Freiräume sein Wachstum einer derzeit unverzichtbaren Funktion verdankt, nämlich der Camouflage von Müll und Altlasten, die eine bauliche Nutzung ausschließen. Andere Freiräume verdanken ihren Bestand ihren vielfältigen Nutzungen, zur Erholung, durch Denkmäler, für Veranstaltungen, aber auch der Wertsteigerung für umliegende Wohngebiete. Ein kleiner Teil der Freiräume hat tatsächlich einen Common-Property-Charakter: Kleingartenanlagen, die von bürgerschaftlichen Gruppen gegründeten Parks sowie die Flächen, die durch Bürgerinitiativen o.ä. gegen eine bauliche Umnutzung verteidigt werden. Grund genug, um die Idee eines Netzwerks von Parkvereinen aufzugreifen, die sich von bürgerschaftlicher Seite aus für Freiräume einsetzen können.

Economic evaluation of proposed pure and mixed stands in Central Vietnam highlands

In comparison with mixed forest stands, the cultivation of pure plantations in Vietnam entails serious ecological consequences such as loss of biodiversity and higher rate of soil erosion. The economic evaluation is elaborated between pure plantations and mixed forests where the fast-growing tree species are mixed with slow growing tree species which are planted in stripes separating the segments with fast-growing tree species (Acacia sp.). For the evaluation, the input values were used from local costs of goods, services and labour. The results show that the internal rate of return is the highest in the case of pure plantation in comparison with mixed forests – 86% to 77%(first planting pattern: Acacia sp. + noble hardwood species) and 54% (second planting pattern: Acacia + Dipterocarpus sp. + Sindora sp.). The average profit per hectare and year is almost five times higher in the case of mixed stands. The first planting pattern reaches 2,650 $, the second planting pattern 2,280 $ and the pure acacia plantation only 460 $. From an economic point of view, the cultivation of mixed forests that corresponds to the principles of sustainable forestry generates a good economical profit while maintaining habitat complexity and biodiversity.

Determination of the silvo-melliferous regions of Benin: a nationwide categorisation of the land based on melliferous plants suitable for timber production

Perennial plants are the main pollen and nectar sources for bees in the tropical areas where most of the annual flora are burned in dry seasons. Therefore perennial plants constitute the most reliable bio materials for determining and evaluating the beekeeping regions of the Republic of Benin. A silvo-melliferous region (S-MR) is a geographical area characterised by a particular set of homogenous melliferous plants that can produce timber. Using both the prevailing climatic and the agro-ecological conditions six S-MRs could be identified, i.e. the South region, the Common Central region, the Central West region, the Central North region, the Middle North region and the Extreme North region. At the country level, the melliferous plants were dominated by Vitellaria paradoxa which is common to all regions. The most diversified family was the Caesalpiniaceae (12 species) followed by the Combretaceae (10 species) and Combretum being the richest genus. The effect of dominance is particularly high in the South region where Elaeis guineensis alone represented 72.6% of the tree density and 140% of the total plant importance. The total melliferous plant density varied from 99.3 plants ha^(−1) in the Common Central region to 178.0 plants ha^(−1) in the Central West region. On the basis of nectar and pollen source, the best region for beekeeping is the CentralWest region with 46.7% of nectar producing trees, 9.4% of pollen producing trees and 40.6% of plants that issue both, this in opposition to the South region which was characterised by an unbalanced distribution of melliferous trees.