Asymptotics of number fields and the Cohen-Lenstra heuristics

We study the asymptotics conjecture of Malle for dihedral groups Dl of order 2l, where l is an odd prime. We prove the expected lower bound for those groups. For the upper bounds we show that there is a connection to class groups of quadratic number fields. The asymptotic behavior of those class groups is predicted by the Cohen-Lenstra heuristics. Under the assumption of this heuristic we are able to prove the expected upper bounds.

Zur Metapsychologie des Autismus

Autistische Phänomene haben seit ihrer Entdeckung (Kanner 1943, Asperger 1944) Wissenschaftler verschiedener Disziplinen immer wieder beschäftigt: Psychiater, Neurowissenschaftler, kognitive Psychologen, Säuglingsforscher, Evolutionspsychologen und Psychoanalytiker haben sich sowohl mit der Beschreibung des Krankheitsbildes wie auch mit den psychischen Prozessen, die bei autistischen Phänomenen vorhanden sind, befasst. Wenn man von einem globalen interdisziplinären Ergebnis der Autismus-Forschung sprechen wollte, könnte man behaupten, dass diese sich als eine Möglichkeit anbot, ein umfassenderes Verständnis für psychische Vorgänge im Allgemeinen zu entwickeln. Die Psychoanalyse als eine „Wissenschaft der Subjektivität“ (Meissner 1983) hat eine lange Tradition in der Entwicklung von Theorie- und Behandlungsansätzen entwickelt. Die kognitiv-psychologischen Untersuchungen haben sich ebenfalls ausführlich mit autistischen Phänomenen befasst. Diese Arbeit stellt einen Versuch dar, eine Fragestellung zu entwickeln, die das psychoanalytische Verständnis autistischer Phänomene mit Auffassungen kognitions-psychologischer Autoren zu verbinden und zu vergleichen sucht. Aus der Sichtweise der Psychoanalyse ist das ein Versuch, die interne bzw. narrative Kohärenz (Leuzinger-Bohleber 1995) psychoanalytischen Verständnisses durch die externe Kohärenz des interdisziplinären Dialoges mit einer anderen Wissenschaft her zu stellen. Zugrunde liegt der Versuch einer Vernetzung verschiedener Erkenntnisse im Sinne verschiedener Modelle, die sich gegenseitig bereichern können. Dem Begriff der Theory of Mind, deren Beeinträchtigung von Kognitionswissenschaftlern (Baron-Cohen 1993, 1995; Baron-Cohen et.al. 1985; Hobson 1993, 2007; Frith 1989, 2003) in der Autismusforschung als grundlegendes Merkmal betrachtet wird, werde ich die psychodynamische Betrachtung (Tustin 1972, 1995; 1981, 1989; 1991; Meltzer 1975; Bion 1962, 1992) gegenüber stellen, die eher von einer Dysfunktion projektiv-identifikatorischer Prozesse (-PI) ausgeht, die sich in einem scheinbaren Mangel an diesen Prozessen äußert. Den von Baron-Cohen entwickelten Parametern, die eine phänomenologische Betrachtung autistischer Phänomene ermöglichen, werde ich die intrapsychische und objektbezogene psychoanalytische Betrachtungsweise gegenüberstellen, die postuliert, dass die Projektive Identifizierung als psychisches Phänomen, das der unbewussten averbalen Kommunikation zugrunde liegt, in autistischen Manifestationen beeinträchtig zu sein scheint. Da die Fähigkeit, psychische Phänomene in sich selbst und in anderen wahrzunehmen, der Psyche immanenteste Eigenschaft und gerade in autistischen Phänomenen beeinträchtigt ist, kann die psychoanalytische Konzeptbildung, die sich mit der Struktur des Psychischen und deren prozesshaftem Charakter befasst, den verschiedenen Disziplinen und auch der Autismus Forschung wichtige Anregungen geben. Anhand einer Einzelfalldarstellung, aus der sich psychodynamische Hypothesen entwickelten, die zu einem psychoanalytischen Verständnis führten, versuche ich, eine gewisse Korrespondenz mit Hypothesen aus der „embodied“ kognitiven Psychologie, wie z.B. die Rolle der Projektiven Identifizierung in der Bildung einer „Theory of Mind“ und ihre Beeinträchtigung (-PI) bei autistischen Phänomenen (Mindblindness, Baron-Cohen) herzustellen.

Modellbasierte Diagnose am Beispiel der Zylinderdrucksensorik von Ottomotoren

Die Diagnose von Fehlern des Zylinderdrucksensors wird anhand eines Ottomotors mit Saugrohreinspritzung (MPI) vorgestellt. Die physikalischen Zusammenhänge und die Einflussgrößen auf das Drehmoment des Motors werden erläutert. Hierzu werden verschiedene Modellansätze vorgestellt sowie eine Variation der Modelleingangsgrößen durchgeführt. Anhand des Verfahrens der analytischen Redundanz werden Residuen abgeleitet und die Empfindlichkeit gegenüber bestimmten Fehlertypen aufgezeigt. Dadurch ist eine Trennung von Fehlern des Zylinderdrucksensors gegenüber motorischen Toleranzen oder nicht zylinderdrucksensorbasierten Fehlern möglich. Handelt es sich bei dem verwendeten Motorkonzept um einen Ottomotor mit quantitätsbasierter Laststeuerung, d.h. mit gleichbleibender Gemischzusammensetzung (i.d.R. Luft-/Kraftstoffverhältnis =1), so kann bei erkanntem Fehler des Zylinderdrucksensors eine weitere Aufteilung nach verschiedenen Fehlertypen erfolgen (z.B. Hysterese, Verstärkungsfehler). Auf diese Weise können Sensortoleranzen wie der Verstärkungsfehler des Zylinderdrucksensors durch eine Adaption korrigiert werden. Die Diagnosefunktion und die Verstärkungsadaption wurde erfolgreich an einem 2,0l-Ottomotor (MPI) ohne externe Abgasrückführung (AGR) und ohne kontinuierliche Nockenwellenverstellung (KNWE) durchgeführt, wobei die erwähnten Einschränkungen in Bezug auf die Betriebsbereiche zu berücksichtigen sind. Anhand der Modellstreuungen und Modellungenauigkeiten sind die Grenzen der Diagnose und der Adaption aufgezeigt worden. Die auf einem Prototypensteuergerät implementierten Algorithmen sind echtzeitfähig, wenngleich für die Zylinderdruck- und Drehzahlauswertung eine hohe Rechenleistung erforderlich ist.

Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

From evolution to co-evolution – An empirical study of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics

In the past decades since Schumpeter’s influential writings economists have pursued research to examine the role of innovation in certain industries on firm as well as on industry level. Researchers describe innovations as the main trigger of industry dynamics, while policy makers argue that research and education are directly linked to economic growth and welfare. Thus, research and education are an important objective of public policy. Firms and public research are regarded as the main actors which are relevant for the creation of new knowledge. This knowledge is finally brought to the market through innovations. What is more, policy makers support innovations. Both actors, i.e. policy makers and researchers, agree that innovation plays a central role but researchers still neglect the role that public policy plays in the field of industrial dynamics. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to learn more about the interdependencies of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. The overarching research question of this dissertation asks whether it is possible to analyze patterns of industry evolution – from evolution to co-evolution – based on empirical studies of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. This work starts with a hypothesis-based investigation of traditional approaches of industrial dynamics. Namely, the testing of a basic assumption of the core models of industrial dynamics and the analysis of the evolutionary patterns – though with an industry which is driven by public policy as example. Subsequently it moves to a more explorative approach, investigating co-evolutionary processes. The underlying questions of the research include the following: Do large firms have an advantage because of their size which is attributable to cost spreading? Do firms that plan to grow have more innovations? What role does public policy play for the evolutionary patterns of an industry? Are the same evolutionary patterns observable as those described in the ILC theories? And is it possible to observe regional co-evolutionary processes of science, innovation and industry evolution? Based on two different empirical contexts – namely the laser and the photovoltaic industry – this dissertation tries to answer these questions and combines an evolutionary approach with a co-evolutionary approach. The first chapter starts with an introduction of the topic and the fields this dissertation is based on. The second chapter provides a new test of the Cohen and Klepper (1996) model of cost spreading, which explains the relationship between innovation, firm size and R&D, at the example of the photovoltaic industry in Germany. First, it is analyzed whether the cost spreading mechanism serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry. This is related to the assumption that the incentives to invest in R&D increase with the ex-ante output. Furthermore, it is investigated whether firms that plan to grow will have more innovative activities. The results indicate that cost spreading serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry and, furthermore, growth plans lead to higher amount of innovative activities. What is more, the role public policy plays for industry evolution is not finally analyzed in the field of industrial dynamics. In the case of Germany, the introduction of demand inducing policy instruments stimulated market and industry growth. While this policy immediately accelerated market volume, the effect on industry evolution is more ambiguous. Thus, chapter three analyzes this relationship by considering a model of industry evolution, where demand-inducing policies will be discussed as a possible trigger of development. The findings suggest that these instruments can take the same effect as a technical advance to foster the growth of an industry and its shakeout. The fourth chapter explores the regional co-evolution of firm population size, private-sector patenting and public research in the empirical context of German laser research and manufacturing over more than 40 years from the emergence of the industry to the mid-2000s. The qualitative as well as quantitative evidence is suggestive of a co-evolutionary process of mutual interdependence rather than a unidirectional effect of public research on private-sector activities. Chapter five concludes with a summary, the contribution of this work as well as the implications and an outlook of further possible research.