A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Composition and stability of organic matter fractions in soils under different land use regimes

Soil organic matter (SOM) vitally impacts all soil functions and plays a key role in the global carbon (C) cycle. More than 70% of the terrestric C stocks that participate in the active C cycle are stored in the soil. Therefore, quantitative knowledge of the rates of C incorporation into SOM fractions of different residence time is crucial to understand and predict the sequestration and stabilization of soil organic carbon (SOC). Consequently, there is a need of fractionation procedures that are capable of isolating functionally SOM fractions, i.e. fractions that are defined by their stability. The literature generally refers to three main mechanisms of SOM stabilization: protection of SOM from decomposition by (i) its structural composition, i.e. recalcitrance, (ii) spatial inaccessibility and/or (iii) interaction with soil minerals and metal ions. One of the difficulties in developing fractionation procedures for the isolation of functional SOM fractions is the marked heterogeneity of the soil environment with its various stabilization mechanisms – often several mechanisms operating simultaneously – in soils and soil horizons of different texture and mineralogy. The overall objective of the present thesis was to evaluate present fractionation techniques and to get a better understanding of the factors of SOM sequestration and stabilization. The first part of this study is attended to the structural composition of SOM. Using 13C cross-polarization magic-angle spinning (CPMAS) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, (i) the effect of land use on SOM composition was investigated and (ii) examined whether SOM composition contributes to the different stability of SOM in density and aggregate fractions. The second part of the present work deals with the mineral-associated SOM fraction. The aim was (iii) to evaluate the suitability of chemical fractionation procedures used in the literature for the isolation of stable SOM pools (stepwise hydrolysis, treatments using oxidizing agents like Na2S2O8, H2O2, and NaOCl as well as demineralization of the residue obtained by the NaOCl treatment using HF (NaOCl+HF)) by pool sizes, 13C and 14C data. Further, (iv) the isolated SOM fractions were compared to the inert organic matter (IOM) pool obtained for the investigated soils using the Rothamsted Carbon Model and isotope data in order to see whether the tested chemical fractionation methods produce SOM fractions capable to represent this pool. Besides chemical fractionation, (v) the suitability of thermal oxidation at different temperatures for obtaining stable SOC pools was evaluated. Finally, (vi) the short-term aggregate dynamics and the factors that impact macroaggregate formation and C stabilization were investigated by means of an incubation study using treatments with and without application of 15N labeled maize straw of different degradability (leaves and coarse roots). All treatments were conducted with and without the addition of fungicide. Two study sites with different soil properties and land managements were chosen for these investigations. The first one, located at Rotthalmünster, is a Stagnic Luvisol (silty loam) under different land use regimes. The Ah horizons of a spruce forest and continuous grassland and the Ap and E horizons of two plots with arable crops (continuous maize and wheat cropping) were examined. The soil of the second study site, located at Halle, is a Haplic Phaeozem (loamy sand) where the Ap horizons of two plots with arable crops (continuous maize and rye cropping) were investigated. Both study sites had a C3-/C4-vegetational change on the maize plot for the purpose of tracing the incorporation of the younger, maize-derived C into different SOM fractions and the calculation of apparent C turnover times of these. The Halle site is located near a train station and industrial areas, which caused a contamination with high amounts of fossil C. The investigation of aggregate and density fractions by 13C CPMAS NMR spectroscopy revealed that density fractionation isolated SOM fractions of different composition. The consumption of a considerable part (10–20%) of the easily available O-alkyl-C and the selective preservation of the more recalcitrant alkyl-C when passing from litter to the different particulate organic matter (POM) fractions suggest that density fractionation was able to isolate SOM fractions with different degrees of decomposition. The spectra of the aggregate fractions resembled those of the mineral-associated SOM fraction obtained by density fractionation and no considerable differences were observed between aggregate size classes. Comparison of plant litter, density and aggregate size fractions from soil under different land use showed that the type of land use markedly influenced the composition of SOM. While SOM of the acid forest soil was characterized by a large content (> 50%) of POM, which contained high amounts of spruce-litter derived alkyl-C, the organic matter in the biologically more active grassland and arable soils was dominated by mineral-associated SOM (> 95%). This SOM fraction comprised greater proportions of aryl- and carbonyl-C and is considered to contain a higher amount of microbially-derived organic substances. Land use can alter both, structure and stability of SOM fractions. All applied chemical treatments induced considerable SOC losses (> 70–95% of mineral-associated SOM) in the investigated soils. The proportion of residual C after chemical fractionation was largest in the arable Ap and E horizons and increased with decreasing C content in the initial SOC after stepwise hydrolysis as well as after the oxidative treatments with H2O2 and Na2S2O8. This can be expected for a functional stable pool of SOM, because it is assumed that the more easily available part of SOC is consumed first if C inputs decrease. All chemical treatments led to a preferential loss of the younger, maize-derived SOC, but this was most pronounced after the treatments with Na2S2O8 and H2O2. After all chemical fractionations, the mean 14C ages of SOC were higher than in the mineral-associated SOM fraction for both study sites and increased in the order: NaOCl < NaOCl+HF ≤ stepwise hydrolysis << H2O2 ≈ Na2S2O8. The results suggest that all treatments were capable of isolating a more stable SOM fraction, but the treatments with H2O2 and Na2S2O8 were the most efficient ones. However, none of the chemical fractionation methods was able to fit the IOM pool calculated using the Rothamsted Carbon Model and isotope data. In the evaluation of thermal oxidation for obtaining stable C fractions, SOC losses increased with temperature from 24–48% (200°C) to 100% (500°C). In the Halle maize Ap horizon, losses of the young, maize-derived C were considerably higher than losses of the older C3-derived C, leading to an increase in the apparent C turnover time from 220 years in mineral-associated SOC to 1158 years after thermal oxidation at 300°C. Most likely, the preferential loss of maize-derived C in the Halle soil was caused by the presence of the high amounts of fossil C mentioned above, which make up a relatively large thermally stable C3-C pool in this soil. This agrees with lower overall SOC losses for the Halle Ap horizon compared to the Rotthalmünster Ap horizon. In the Rotthalmünster soil only slightly more maize-derived than C3-derived SOC was removed by thermal oxidation. Apparent C turnover times increased slightly from 58 years in mineral-associated SOC to 77 years after thermal oxidation at 300°C in the Rotthalmünster Ap and from 151 to 247 years in the Rotthalmünster E horizon. This led to the conclusion that thermal oxidation of SOM was not capable of isolating SOM fractions of considerably higher stability. The incubation experiment showed that macroaggregates develop rapidly after the addition of easily available plant residues. Within the first four weeks of incubation, the maximum aggregation was reached in all treatments without addition of fungicide. The formation of water-stable macroaggregates was related to the size of the microbial biomass pool and its activity. Furthermore, fungi were found to be crucial for the development of soil macroaggregates as the formation of water-stable macroaggregates was significantly delayed in the fungicide treated soils. The C concentration in the obtained aggregate fractions decreased with decreasing aggregate size class, which is in line with the aggregate hierarchy postulated by several authors for soils with SOM as the major binding agent. Macroaggregation involved incorporation of large amounts maize-derived organic matter, but macroaggregates did not play the most important role in the stabilization of maize-derived SOM, because of their relatively low amount (less than 10% of the soil mass). Furthermore, the maize-derived organic matter was quickly incorporated into all aggregate size classes. The microaggregate fraction stored the largest quantities of maize-derived C and N – up to 70% of the residual maize-C and -N were stored in this fraction.

Verfahren zur echtzeitfähigen Simulation dynamischer Emissionsverläufe ausgewählter Schadstoffe von Ottomotoren

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden Modellbildungsverfahren zur echtzeitfähigen Simulation wichtiger Schadstoffkomponenten im Abgasstrom von Verbrennungsmotoren vorgestellt. Es wird ein ganzheitlicher Entwicklungsablauf dargestellt, dessen einzelne Schritte, beginnend bei der Ver-suchsplanung über die Erstellung einer geeigneten Modellstruktur bis hin zur Modellvalidierung, detailliert beschrieben werden. Diese Methoden werden zur Nachbildung der dynamischen Emissi-onsverläufe relevanter Schadstoffe des Ottomotors angewendet. Die abgeleiteten Emissionsmodelle dienen zusammen mit einer Gesamtmotorsimulation zur Optimierung von Betriebstrategien in Hybridfahrzeugen. Im ersten Abschnitt der Arbeit wird eine systematische Vorgehensweise zur Planung und Erstellung von komplexen, dynamischen und echtzeitfähigen Modellstrukturen aufgezeigt. Es beginnt mit einer physikalisch motivierten Strukturierung, die eine geeignete Unterteilung eines Prozessmodells in einzelne überschaubare Elemente vorsieht. Diese Teilmodelle werden dann, jeweils ausgehend von einem möglichst einfachen nominalen Modellkern, schrittweise erweitert und ermöglichen zum Abschluss eine robuste Nachbildung auch komplexen, dynamischen Verhaltens bei hinreichender Genauigkeit. Da einige Teilmodelle als neuronale Netze realisiert werden, wurde eigens ein Verfah-ren zur sogenannten diskreten evidenten Interpolation (DEI) entwickelt, das beim Training einge-setzt, und bei minimaler Messdatenanzahl ein plausibles, also evidentes Verhalten experimenteller Modelle sicherstellen kann. Zum Abgleich der einzelnen Teilmodelle wurden statistische Versuchs-pläne erstellt, die sowohl mit klassischen DoE-Methoden als auch mittels einer iterativen Versuchs-planung (iDoE ) generiert wurden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden, nach Ermittlung der wichtigsten Einflussparameter, die Model-strukturen zur Nachbildung dynamischer Emissionsverläufe ausgewählter Abgaskomponenten vor-gestellt, wie unverbrannte Kohlenwasserstoffe (HC), Stickstoffmonoxid (NO) sowie Kohlenmono-xid (CO). Die vorgestellten Simulationsmodelle bilden die Schadstoffkonzentrationen eines Ver-brennungsmotors im Kaltstart sowie in der anschließenden Warmlaufphase in Echtzeit nach. Im Vergleich zur obligatorischen Nachbildung des stationären Verhaltens wird hier auch das dynami-sche Verhalten des Verbrennungsmotors in transienten Betriebsphasen ausreichend korrekt darge-stellt. Eine konsequente Anwendung der im ersten Teil der Arbeit vorgestellten Methodik erlaubt, trotz einer Vielzahl von Prozesseinflussgrößen, auch hier eine hohe Simulationsqualität und Ro-bustheit. Die Modelle der Schadstoffemissionen, eingebettet in das dynamische Gesamtmodell eines Ver-brennungsmotors, werden zur Ableitung einer optimalen Betriebsstrategie im Hybridfahrzeug ein-gesetzt. Zur Lösung solcher Optimierungsaufgaben bieten sich modellbasierte Verfahren in beson-derer Weise an, wobei insbesondere unter Verwendung dynamischer als auch kaltstartfähiger Mo-delle und der damit verbundenen Realitätsnähe eine hohe Ausgabequalität erreicht werden kann.

Effect of environmental conditions on the N uptake route of soil microorganisms and adaption of a method to determine amino acid oxidase in soil

Soil microorganisms have evolved two possible mechanisms for their uptake of organic N: the direct route and the mobilization-immobilization-turnover (MIT) route. In the direct route, simple organic molecules are taken up via various mechanisms directly into the cell. In the MIT route, the deamination occurs outside the cell and all N is mineralized to NH4+ before assimilation. A better understanding of the mechanisms controlling the different uptake routes of soil microorganisms under different environmental conditions is crucial for understanding mineralization processes of organic material in soil. For the first experiment we incubated soil samples from the long term trial in Bad Lauchstädt with corn residues with different C to N ratios and inorganic N for 21 days at 20 °C. Under the assumption that all added amino acids were taken up or mineralized, the direct uptake route was more important in soil amended with corn residues with a wide C to N ratio. After 21 days of incubation the direct uptake of added amino acids increased in the order addition of corn residue with a: “C to N ratio of 40 & (NH4)2SO4 and no addition (control)” (69% and 68%, respectively) < “C to N ratio of 20” (73%) < “C to N ratio of 40” (95%). In all treatments the proportion of the added amino acids that were mineralized increased with time, indicating that the MIT route became more important over time. To investigate the effects of soil depth on the N uptake route of soil microorganisms (experiment II), soil samples in two soil depths (0-5 cm; 30-40 cm) were incubated with corn residues with different C to N ratios and inorganic N for 21 days at 20 °C and 60% (WHC). The addition of corn residue resulted in a marked increase of protease activity in both depths due to the induction from the added substrate. Addition of corn residue with a wide C to N ratio resulted in a significantly greater part of the direct uptake (97% and 94%) than without the addition of residues (85% and 80%) or addition of residue with a small C to N ratio (90% and 84%) or inorganic N (91% and 79% in the surface soil and subsoil, respectively), suggesting that under conditions of sufficient mineralizable N (C to N ratio of 20) or increased concentrations of NH4+, the enzyme system involved in the direct uptake is slightly repressed. Substrate additions resulted in an initially significantly higher increase of the direct uptake in the surface soil than in the subsoil. As a large proportion of the organic N input into soil is in form of proteinaceous material, the deamination of amino acids is a key reaction of the MIT route. Therefore the enzyme amino acid oxidase contribute to the extracellular N mineralization in soil. The objective of experiment III was to adapt a method to determine amino acid oxidase in soil. The detection via synthetic fluorescent Lucifer Yellow derivatives of the amino acid lysine is possible in soil. However, it was not possible to find the substrate concentration at which the reaction rate is independent of substrate concentration and therefore we were not able to develop a valid soil enzyme assay.

Suppression of root-knot nematode through innovative mustard biofumigation

The nematicidal activity of mustard plant against hatching, migration and mortality of the root-knot nematode Meloidogyne javanica was investigated. In vitro test confirmed that mixing the sandy clay soil mixture with mustard as 4% as a biofumigant significantly reduce the percentage of egg hatching at all different incubation periods 24, 48, 72, 96 and 168 h, compared to control treatment (un-amended mixture soil and eggs in free water). Results indicate that the percentage of egg hatching reduction was 88.5, 90, 81.4, 74 and 69.4%, respectively. Mustard mixed with soil as a biofumigant led to high percentage of larval mortality at the different intervals periods in vitro. The percentage of larval mortality was 94, 100, 90.5, 90.5, and 79.4%, respectively compared to control. Laboratory results confirmed that the highest reduction in egg hatching and larval mortality was obtained after incubation period for 48 h. In vivo experiment reveals that the incorporation of the soil pots with mustard at all different doses used 3, 5% (48 h before nematode inoculation, or soil infestation with nematode), and 5% (one week before nematode inoculation or 7% of soil weight) significantly reduces all the nematode parameters compared to plant treated nematode alone. All nematode parameters i.e. the number of galls per root system, gall index, number of egg masses per root system, as well as number of juveniles per 250g soil showed high reduction with mixing the soil pots with mustard at 5% (one week before nematode inoculation), followed by the same treatment for 48h before nematode inoculation. Mustard application, one week before nematode inoculation, reduced the nematode parameters by 97, 64, 97, and 93%, respectively, compared to control. The percent of chemical components i.e. total sugars, total amino acids and total phenols were markedly enhanced compared to positive and negative control. The highest percentage was obtained with mustard at 5% one week before nematode inoculation by 68.7, 57.3 and 45%, respectively. Finally, we have to conclude that this modified technology is an innovative and can be used efficiently to control Root-knot nematode under organic agriculture and Global GAP agricultural systems instead of these carcinogenic nematicides.