3D Simultaneous Inversion for Seismic Structure and Local Hypocenters in Germany under Consideration of Seismic Anisotropy in the Upper Mantel

The main task of this work has been to investigate the effects of anisotropy onto the propagation of seismic waves along the Upper Mantle below Germany and adjacent areas. Refraction- and reflexion seismic experiments proved the existence of Upper Mantle anisotropy and its influence onto the propagation of Pn-waves. By the 3D tomographic investigations that have been done here for the crust and the upper mantle, considering the influence of anisotropy, a gap for the investigations in Europe has been closed. These investigations have been done with the SSH-Inversionprogram of Prof. Dr. M. Koch, which is able to compute simultaneously the seismic structure and hypocenters. For the investigation, a dataset has been available with recordings between the years 1975 to 2003 with a total of 60249 P- and 54212 S-phase records of 10028 seismic events. At the beginning, a precise analysis of the residuals (RES, the difference between calculated and observed arrivaltime) has been done which confirmed the existence of anisotropy for Pn-phases. The recognized sinusoidal distribution has been compensated by an extension of the SSH-program by an ellipse with a slow and rectangular fast axis with azimuth to correct the Pn-velocities. The azimuth of the fast axis has been fixed by the application of the simultaneous inversion at 25° - 27° with a variation of the velocities at +- 2.5 about an average value at 8 km/s. This new value differs from the old one at 35°, recognized in the initial residual analysis. This depends on the new computed hypocenters together with the structure. The application of the elliptical correction has resulted in a better fit of the vertical layered 1D-Model, compared to the results of preceding seismological experiments and 1D and 2D investigations. The optimal result of the 1D-inversion has been used as initial starting model for the 3D-inversions to compute the three dimensional picture of the seismic structure of the Crust and Upper Mantle. The simultaneous inversion has showed an optimization of the relocalization of the hypocenters and the reconstruction of the seismic structure in comparison to the geology and tectonic, as described by other investigations. The investigations for the seismic structure and the relocalization have been confirmed by several different tests. First, synthetic traveltime data are computed with an anisotropic variation and inverted with and without anisotropic correction. Further, tests with randomly disturbed hypocenters and traveltime data have been proceeded to verify the influence of the initial values onto the relocalization accuracy and onto the seismic structure and to test for a further improvement by the application of the anisotropic correction. Finally, the results of the work have been applied onto the Waldkirch earthquake in 2004 to compare the isotropic and the anisotropic relocalization with the initial optimal one to verify whether there is some improvement.

Impact of sward type, cutting date and conditioning temperature on mass and energy flows in the integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from semi-natural grassland

Energy production from biomass and the conservation of ecologically valuable grassland habitats are two important issues of agriculture today. The combination of a bioenergy production, which minimises environmental impacts and competition with food production for land with a conversion of semi-natural grasslands through new utilization alternatives for the biomass, led to the development of the IFBB process. Its basic principle is the separation of biomass into a liquid fraction (press fluid, PF) for the production of electric and thermal energy after anaerobic digestion to biogas and a solid fraction (press cake, PC) for the production of thermal energy through combustion. This study was undertaken to explore mass and energy flows as well as quality aspects of energy carriers within the IFBB process and determine their dependency on biomass-related and technical parameters. Two experiments were conducted, in which biomass from semi-natural grassland was conserved as silage and subjected to a hydrothermal conditioning and a subsequent mechanical dehydration with a screw press. Methane yield of the PF and the untreated silage was determined in anaerobic digestion experiments in batch fermenters at 37°C with a fermentation time of 13-15 and 27-35 days for the PF and the silage, respectively. Concentrations of dry matter (DM), ash, crude protein (CP), crude fibre (CF), ether extract (EE), neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF), acid detergent ligning (ADL) and elements (K, Mg, Ca, Cl, N, S, P, C, H, N) were determined in the untreated biomass and the PC. Higher heating value (HHV) and ash softening temperature (AST) were calculated based on elemental concentration. Chemical composition of the PF and mass flows of all plant compounds into the PF were calculated. In the first experiment, biomass from five different semi-natural grassland swards (Arrhenaterion I and II, Caricion fuscae, Filipendulion ulmariae, Polygono-Trisetion) was harvested at one late sampling (19 July or 31 August) and ensiled. Each silage was subjected to three different temperature treatments (5°C, 60°C, 80°C) during hydrothermal conditioning. Based on observed methane yields and HHV as energy output parameters as well as literature-based and observed energy input parameters, energy and green house gas (GHG) balances were calculated for IFBB and two reference conversion processes, whole-crop digestion of untreated silage (WCD) and combustion of hay (CH). In the second experiment, biomass from one single semi-natural grassland sward (Arrhenaterion) was harvested at eight consecutive dates (27/04, 02/05, 09/05, 16/05, 24/05, 31/05, 11/06, 21/06) and ensiled. Each silage was subjected to six different treatments (no hydrothermal conditioning and hydrothermal conditioning at 10°C, 30°C, 50°C, 70°C, 90°C). Energy balance was calculated for IFBB and WCD. Multiple regression models were developed to predict mass flows, concentrations of elements in the PC, concentration of organic compounds in the PF and energy conversion efficiency of the IFBB process from temperature of hydrothermal conditioning as well as NDF and DM concentration in the silage. Results showed a relative reduction of ash and all elements detrimental for combustion in the PC compared to the untreated biomass of 20-90%. Reduction was highest for K and Cl and lowest for N. HHV of PC and untreated biomass were in a comparable range (17.8-19.5 MJ kg-1 DM), but AST of PC was higher (1156-1254°C). Methane yields of PF were higher compared to those of WCD when the biomass was harvested late (end of May and later) and in a comparable range when the biomass was harvested early and ranged from 332 to 458 LN kg-1 VS. Regarding energy and GHG balances, IFBB, with a net energy yield of 11.9-14.1 MWh ha-1, a conversion efficiency of 0.43-0.51, and GHG mitigation of 3.6-4.4 t CO2eq ha-1, performed better than WCD, but worse than CH. WCD produces thermal and electric energy with low efficiency, CH produces only thermal energy with a low quality solid fuel with high efficiency, IFBB produces thermal and electric energy with a solid fuel of high quality with medium efficiency. Regression models were able to predict target parameters with high accuracy (R2=0.70-0.99). The influence of increasing temperature of hydrothermal conditioning was an increase of mass flows, a decrease of element concentrations in the PC and a differing effect on energy conversion efficiency. The influence of increasing NDF concentration of the silage was a differing effect on mass flows, a decrease of element concentrations in the PC and an increase of energy conversion efficiency. The influence of increasing DM concentration of the silage was a decrease of mass flows, an increase of element concentrations in the PC and an increase of energy conversion efficiency. Based on the models an optimised IFBB process would be obtained with a medium temperature of hydrothermal conditioning (50°C), high NDF concentrations in the silage and medium DM concentrations of the silage.

Das Einzugsgebiet der Fulda - Untersuchung der Methoden der Hochwasserstatistik im Zeichen des Klimawandels

Numerous studies have proven an effect of a probable climate change on the hydrosphere’s different subsystems. In the 21st century global and regional redistribution of water has to be expected and it is very likely that extreme weather phenomenon will occur more frequently. From a global view the flood situation will exacerbate. In contrast to these discoveries the classical approach of flood frequency analysis provides terms like “mean flood recurrence interval”. But for this analysis to be valid there is a need for the precondition of stationary distribution parameters which implies that the flood frequencies are constant in time. Newer approaches take into account extreme value distributions with time-dependent parameters. But the latter implies a discard of the mentioned old terminology that has been used up-to-date in engineering hydrology. On the regional scale climate change affects the hydrosphere in various ways. So, the question appears to be whether in central Europe the classical approach of flood frequency analysis is not usable anymore and whether the traditional terminology should be renewed. In the present case study hydro-meteorological time series of the Fulda catchment area (6930 km²), upstream of the gauging station Bonaforth, are analyzed for the time period 1960 to 2100. At first a distributed catchment area model (SWAT2005) is build up, calibrated and finally validated. The Edertal reservoir is regulated as well by a feedback control of the catchments output in case of low water. Due to this intricacy a special modeling strategy has been necessary: The study area is divided into three SWAT basin models and an additional physically-based reservoir model is developed. To further improve the streamflow predictions of the SWAT model, a correction by an artificial neural network (ANN) has been tested successfully which opens a new way to improve hydrological models. With this extension the calibration and validation of the SWAT model for the Fulda catchment area is improved significantly. After calibration of the model for the past 20th century observed streamflow, the SWAT model is driven by high resolution climate data of the regional model REMO using the IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, to generate future runoff time series for the 21th century for the various sub-basins in the study area. In a second step flood time series HQ(a) are derived from the 21st century runoff time series (scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Then these flood projections are extensively tested with regard to stationarity, homogeneity and statistical independence. All these tests indicate that the SWAT-predicted 21st-century trends in the flood regime are not significant. Within the projected time the members of the flood time series are proven to be stationary and independent events. Hence, the classical stationary approach of flood frequency analysis can still be used within the Fulda catchment area, notwithstanding the fact that some regional climate change has been predicted using the IPCC scenarios. It should be noted, however, that the present results are not transferable to other catchment areas. Finally a new method is presented that enables the calculation of extreme flood statistics, even if the flood time series is non-stationary and also if the latter exhibits short- and longterm persistence. This method, which is called Flood Series Maximum Analysis here, enables the calculation of maximum design floods for a given risk- or safety level and time period.

Characteristics, socioeconomic benefits and household livelihoods of beef buffalo and beef cattle farming in Northeast Thailand

Since the Thai economy experiences rapid growth, agricultural systems, i.e. crop-livestock systems, are changing rapidly. On account of these changes, buffalo and cattle production has to be re-examined in terms of performance characteristics and roles of livestock for farm households in order to initiate suitable development programmes. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the present characteristics of beef buffalo and beef cattle farms in Northeast Thailand. Using a semi-structured questionnaire, 121 randomly selected beef buffalo and beef cattle farms were interviewed in Nakhon Ratchasima province between October 2007 and May 2008. Both buffaloes and cattle were mostly integrated in mixed crop-livestock systems with medium to large farm sizes (7.9 ha), whereof less than half of the area was used for livestock. Family members were mainly responsible for the different activities of livestock farming and salaried labourers were only found on large-scale farms. The dominant roles of livestock were income generation to build up wealth or savings, the coverage of expected and unexpected expenses and earning of regular and additional income. Another important issue was the improvement of the social status, which increased with herd size. In order to improve farmers’ livelihoods and develop sustainable farming systems in Northeast Thailand the changing economic circumstances of cattle and especially buffalo production should receive more attention of researchers, governmental institutions and stakeholders.

Gewerbeaufsicht im 21. Jahrhundert.

Während zum Genehmigungsrecht zahlreiche Abhandlungen in der juristischen Literatur und eine große Zahl von Urteilen veröffentlicht sind, hält sich die Forschung und praktische Behandlung zum Aufsichtsrecht in Grenzen. Diese Arbeit vertieft das Verständnis, für die spezifische Verknüpfung und gegenseitige Abhängigkeit der Eröffnungskontrollen und der begleitenden Kontrollen im deutschen Arbeits-, Umwelt- und Verbraucherschutzrecht. Zentraler Punkt dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung von Grundlinien der begleitenden Aufsicht im Gewerbeaufsichtsrecht. Dazu ist es erforderlich die verschiedenen Randbedingungen gewerbeaufsichtlichen Handelns in den Blick zu nehmen. Es ist ein Blick auf die zu erwartende Ausbildung eines neuen Rationalitätstyps der gesellschaftlichen Entwicklung (2.), auf die Typisierung von Staats-, Gewerbe- und Wirtschaftsaufsicht und deren spezifischen Handlungsmustern, den festgestellten Defiziten des Aufsichtsrechts und des Aufsichtshandelns der begleitenden Kontrollen und den festgestellten tatsächlichen Wirkungen des Aufsichtssystems (3.) zu werfen. Weitere Einflüsse auf das Aufsichtsmodell der Zukunft kommen aus der erwarteten und wünschenswerten Entwicklung des Genehmigungsrechts (4.), der Art und Weise wie die begleitende Aufsicht gehandhabt werden kann und soll (5.) und den Privatisierungstypen und deren verfassungsrechtlichen Grenzen (6.). Die Arbeit schließt mit der Formulierung eines Zukunftsmodells, dass die Gewichte zwischen der Eröffnungs- und der begleitender Kontrolle, sowie das Verhältnis zwischen Staat, Privaten Dritten und Unternehmen, neu ordnet. Insgesamt wird in dieser Arbeit für ein Aufsichtsmodell plädiert, indem der Staat stärker in die Verantwortung für eine risikoorientierte begleitende Aufsicht genommen wird. Maßstäbe für die Risikoregelung sind künftig komplett vom Staat aufzustellen. Staatliche Aufsicht kann sich zukünftig auf Rahmenregelungen und Rahmenprüfungen bei den risikoreichsten Anlagen, Tätigkeiten und Produkten beschränken. Private Dritte können die Detailermittlungen und Freigaben bearbeiten. Private Sachverständige können künftig die Hauptlast detaillierter und zeitintensiver Kontrolltätigkeiten bei Anlagen, Tätigkeiten und Produkten mit mittlerem Risiko übernehmen. Anlagen, Tätigkeiten und Produkte mit geringem Risiko können der Eigenüberwachung überlassen werden. Im Gegenzug muss der Staat in deutlich stärkeren Maß die Aufsicht über die Kontrolleure anhand einheitlicher Maßstäbe organisieren und durchführen. Die Anforderungen an die Kontrolleure müssen künftig allgemein, sowohl für die externen Kontrollpersonen als auch für die internen Aufsichtspersonen, gelten und überprüft werden.

Femtosecond probing of sodium cluster ion Na_n ^+ fragmentation

We report on the first femtosecond time-resolved experiments in cluster physics. The photofragmentation dynamics of small sodium cluster ions Na_n ^+ have been studied with pump-probe techniques. Ultrashort laser pulses of 60-fs duration are employed to photoionize the sodium clusters and to probe the photofragments. We find that the ejection of neutral dimer Na_2 and, observed for the first time, neutral trimer Na_3 photofragments occur on ultrashort time scales of 2.5 and 0.4 ps, respectively. This and the absence of cluster heating reveals that direct photoinduced fragmentation processes are important at short times rather than the statistical unimolecular decay.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

Numerical Feasibility Study for Treated Wastewater Recharge as a Tool to Impede Saltwater Intrusion in the Coastal Aquifer of Gaza – Palestine

The ongoing depletion of the coastal aquifer in the Gaza strip due to groundwater overexploitation has led to the process of seawater intrusion, which is continually becoming a serious problem in Gaza, as the seawater has further invaded into many sections along the coastal shoreline. As a first step to get a hold on the problem, the artificial neural network (ANN)-model has been applied as a new approach and an attractive tool to study and predict groundwater levels without applying physically based hydrologic parameters, and also for the purpose to improve the understanding of complex groundwater systems and which is able to show the effects of hydrologic, meteorological and anthropogenic impacts on the groundwater conditions. Prediction of the future behaviour of the seawater intrusion process in the Gaza aquifer is thus of crucial importance to safeguard the already scarce groundwater resources in the region. In this study the coupled three-dimensional groundwater flow and density-dependent solute transport model SEAWAT, as implemented in Visual MODFLOW, is applied to the Gaza coastal aquifer system to simulate the location and the dynamics of the saltwater–freshwater interface in the aquifer in the time period 2000-2010. A very good agreement between simulated and observed TDS salinities with a correlation coefficient of 0.902 and 0.883 for both steady-state and transient calibration is obtained. After successful calibration of the solute transport model, simulation of future management scenarios for the Gaza aquifer have been carried out, in order to get a more comprehensive view of the effects of the artificial recharge planned in the Gaza strip for some time on forestall, or even to remedy, the presently existing adverse aquifer conditions, namely, low groundwater heads and high salinity by the end of the target simulation period, year 2040. To that avail, numerous management scenarios schemes are examined to maintain the ground water system and to control the salinity distributions within the target period 2011-2040. In the first, pessimistic scenario, it is assumed that pumping from the aquifer continues to increase in the near future to meet the rising water demand, and that there is not further recharge to the aquifer than what is provided by natural precipitation. The second, optimistic scenario assumes that treated surficial wastewater can be used as a source of additional artificial recharge to the aquifer which, in principle, should not only lead to an increased sustainable yield of the latter, but could, in the best of all cases, revert even some of the adverse present-day conditions in the aquifer, i.e., seawater intrusion. This scenario has been done with three different cases which differ by the locations and the extensions of the injection-fields for the treated wastewater. The results obtained with the first (do-nothing) scenario indicate that there will be ongoing negative impacts on the aquifer, such as a higher propensity for strong seawater intrusion into the Gaza aquifer. This scenario illustrates that, compared with 2010 situation of the baseline model, at the end of simulation period, year 2040, the amount of saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer will be increased by about 35 %, whereas the salinity will be increased by 34 %. In contrast, all three cases of the second (artificial recharge) scenario group can partly revert the present seawater intrusion. From the water budget point of view, compared with the first (do nothing) scenario, for year 2040, the water added to the aquifer by artificial recharge will reduces the amount of water entering the aquifer by seawater intrusion by 81, 77and 72 %, for the three recharge cases, respectively. Meanwhile, the salinity in the Gaza aquifer will be decreased by 15, 32 and 26% for the three cases, respectively.