A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Short-term effects of human urine fertiliser and wood ash on soil pH and electrical conductivity

The fertiliser value of human urine has been examined on several crops, yet little is known about its effects on key soil properties of agronomic significance. This study investigated temporal soil salinization potential of human urine fertiliser (HUF). It further looked at combined effects of human urine and wood ash (WA) on soil pH, urine-NH_3 volatilisation, soil electrical conductivity (EC), and basic cation contents of two Acrisols (Adenta and Toje series) from the coastal savannah zone of Ghana. The experiment was a factorial design conducted in the laboratory for 12 weeks. The results indicated an increase in soil pH by 1.2 units for Adenta series and 1 unit for Toje series after one week of HUF application followed by a decline by about 2 pH units for both soil types after twelve weeks. This was attributed to nitrification of ammonium to nitrate leading to acidification. The EC otherwise increased with HUF application creating slightly saline conditions in Toje series and non-saline conditions in Adenta series. When WA was applied with HUF, both soil pH and EC increased. In contrast, the HUF alone slightly salinized Toje series, but both soils remained non-saline whenWA and HUF were applied together. The application ofWA resulted in two-fold increase in Ca, Mg, K, and Na content compared to HUF alone. Hence, WA is a promising amendment of acid soils and could reduce the effect of soluble salts in human urine fertilizer, which is likely to cause soil salinity.

Microbial response to restoration of tantalite mine soils in western Rwanda

Artisanal columbite-tantalite (coltan) mining has had negative effects on the rural economy in the great Lakes region of Africa through labor deficits, degradation and loss of farmland, food insecurity, high cost of living, and reduced traditional export crop production alongside secondary impacts that remotely affect the quality of air, water, soil, plants, animals, and human wellbeing. The situation is multifaceted and calls for a holistic approach for short and long-term mitigation of such negative effects. This study focuses on the effects of mine land restoration on soil microbiological quality in the Gatumba Mining District of western Rwanda. Some coltan mine wastelands were afforested with pine and eucalyptus trees while farmers directly cultivated others due to land scarcity. Farmyard manure (FYM) is the sole fertilizer applied on the wastelands although it is insufficient to achieve the desired crop yields. Despite this, several multi-purpose plants such as Tithonia diversifolia, Markhamia lutea, and Canavalia brasiliensis thrive in the area and could supplement FYM. The potential for these “new” amendments to improve soil microbial properties, particularly in the tantalite mine soils was investigated. The specific objectives of the study were to: (a) evaluate the effects of land use on soil microbial indices of the tantalite mine soils; (b) investigate the restorative effects of organic amendments on a Technosol; and (c) estimate the short-term N and P supply potential of the soil amendments in the soils. Fresh soils (0-20 cm) from an unmined native forest, two mine sites afforested with pine and eucalyptus forests (pine and eucalyptus Technosols), an arable land, and two cultivated Technosols (Kavumu and Kirengo Technosols) were analyzed for the physicochemical properties. Afterwards, a 28-day incubation (22oC) experiment was conducted followed by measurements of mineral N, soil microbial biomass C, N, P, and fungal ergosterol contents using standard methods. This was followed by a 12-week incubation study of the arable soil and the Kavumu Technosol amended with FYM, Canavalia and Tithonia biomass, and Markhamia leaf litter after which soil microbial properties were measured at 2, 8, and 12 weeks of incubation. Finally, two 4-week incubation experiments each were conducted in soils of the six sites to estimate (i) potential mineralizable N using a soil-sand mixture (1:1) amended with Canavalia and goat manure and (ii) P mineralization mixtures (1:1) of soil and anion exchange resins in bicarbonate form amended with Tithonia biomass and goat manure. In study one, afforestation increased soil organic carbon and total N contents in the pine and eucalyptus Technosols by 34-40% and 28-30%, respectively of that in the native forest soil. Consequently, the microbial biomass and activity followed a similar trend where the cultivated Technosols were inferior to the afforested ones. The microbial indices of the mine soils were constrained by soil acidity, dithionite-extractable Al, and low P availability. In study two, the amendments substantially increased C and N mineralization, microbial properties compared with non-amended soils. Canavalia biomass increased CO2 efflux by 340%, net N mineralization by 30-140%, and microbial biomass C and N by 240-600% and 240-380% (P < 0.01), respectively after four weeks of incubation compared with the non-amended soils. Tithonia biomass increased ergosterol content by roughly 240%. The Kavumu Technosol showed a high potential for quick restoration of its soil quality due to its major responses to the measured biological parameters. In study three, Canavalia biomass gave the highest mineralizable N (130 µg g-1 soil, P < 0.01) in the Kavumu Technosol and the lowest in the native forest soil (-20 µg g-1 soil). Conversely, the mineralizable N of goat manure was negative in all soils ranging from -2.5 µg N g-1 to -7.7 µg N g-1 soil except the native forest soil. However, the immobilization of goat manure N in the “cultivated soils” was 30-70% lower than in the “forest soils” signifying an imminent recovery of the amended soils from N immobilization. The mineralization of goat manure P was three-fold that of Tithonia, constituting 61-71% of total P applied. Phosphorus mineralization slightly decreased after four weeks of incubation due to sulfate competition as reflected in a negative correlation, which was steeper in the Tithonia treatment. In conclusion, each amendment used in this research played a unique role in C, N, and P mineralization and contributed substantially to microbial properties in the tantalite mine soils. Interestingly, the “N immobilizers” exhibited potentials for P release and soil organic carbon storage. Consequently, the combined use of the amendments in specific ratios, or co-composting prior to application is recommended to optimize nutrient release, microbial biomass dynamics and soil organic matter accrual. Transport of organic inputs seems more feasible for smallholder farmers who typically manage small field sizes. To reduce acidity in the soils, liming with wood ash was recommended to also improve P availability and enhance soil biological quality, even if it may only be possible on small areas. Further, afforestation with mixed-species of fast-growing eucalyptus and legume or indigenous tree species are suggested to restore tantalite mine wastelands. It is emphasized most of this research was conducted under controlled laboratory conditions, which exclude interaction with environmental variables. Also fine fractions of the amendments were used compared with the usual practice of applying a mixture of predominantly coarser fractions. Therefore, the biological dynamics reported in the studies here may not entirely reflect those of farmers’ field conditions.