Diversity, local uses and availability of medicinal plants and wild yams in the Mahafaly region of south-western Madagascar

Short summary: This study was undertaken to assess the diversity of plant resources utilized by the local population in south-western Madagascar, the social, ecological and biophysical conditions that drive their uses and availability, and possible alternative strategies for their sustainable use in the region. The study region, ‘Mahafaly region’, located in south-western Madagascar, is one of the country’s most economically, educationally and climatically disadvantaged regions. With an arid steppe climate, the agricultural production is limited by low water availability and a low level of soil nutrients and soil organic carbon. The region comprises the recently extended Tsimanampetsotsa National Park, with numerous sacred and communities forests, which are threatened by slash and burn agriculture and overexploitation of forests resources. The present study analyzed the availability of wild yams and medicinal plants, and their importance for the livelihood of the local population in this region. An ethnobotanical survey was conducted recording the diversity, local knowledge and use of wild yams and medicinal plants utilized by the local communities in five villages in the Mahafaly region. 250 households were randomly selected followed by semi-structured interviews on the socio-economic characteristics of the households. Data allowed us to characterize sociocultural and socioeconomic factors that determine the local use of wild yams and medicinal plants, and to identify their role in the livelihoods of local people. Species-environment relationships and the current spatial distribution of the wild yams were investigated and predicted using ordination methods and a niche based habitat modelling approach. Species response curves along edaphic gradients allowed us to understand the species requirements on habitat conditions. We thus investigated various alternative methods to enhance the wild yam regeneration for their local conservation and their sustainable use in the Mahafaly region. Altogether, six species of wild yams and a total of 214 medicinal plants species from 68 families and 163 genera were identified in the study region. Results of the cluster and discriminant analysis indicated a clear pattern on resource, resulted in two groups of household and characterized by differences in livestock numbers, off-farm activities, agricultural land and harvests. A generalized linear model highlighted that economic factors significantly affect the collection intensity of wild yams, while the use of medicinal plants depends to a higher degree on socio-cultural factors. The gradient analysis on the distribution of the wild yam species revealed a clear pattern for species habitats. Species models based on NPMR (Nonparametric Multiplicative Regression analysis) indicated the importance of vegetation structure, human interventions, and soil characteristics to determine wild yam species distribution. The prediction of the current availability of wild yam resources showed that abundant wild yam resources are scarce and face high harvest intensity. Experiments on yams cultivation revealed that germination of seeds was enhanced by using pre-germination treatments before planting, vegetative regeneration performed better with the upper part of the tubers (corms) rather than the sets of tubers. In-situ regeneration was possible for the upper parts of the wild tubers but the success depended significantly on the type of soil. The use of manure (10-20 t ha¹) increased the yield of the D. alata and D. alatipes by 40%. We thus suggest the promotion of other cultivated varieties of D. alata found regions neighbouring as the Mahafaly Plateau.

The role of Ken&Barbie in JAK/STAT signalling during development of Drosophila melanogaster

Cell-cell interactions during embryonic development are crucial in the co-ordination of growth, differentiation and maintenance of many different cell types. To achieve this co-ordination each cell must properly translate signals received from neighbouring cells, into spatially and temporally appropriate developmental responses. A surprisingly limited number of signal pathways are responsible for the differentiation of enormous variety of cell types. As a result, pathways are frequently 'reused' during development. Thus, in mammals the JAK/STAT pathway is required during early embryogenesis, mammary gland formation, hematopoiesis and, finally, plays a pivotal role in immune response. In the canonical way, the JAK/STAT pathway is represented by a transmembrane receptor associated with a Janus kinase (JAK), which upon stimulation by an extra-cellular ligand, phosphorylates itself, the receptor and, finally, the signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) molecules. Phosphorylated STATs dimerise and translocate to the nucleus where they activate transcription of target genes. The JAK/STAT pathway has been conserved throughout evolution, and all known components are present in the genome of Drosophila melanogaster. Besides hematopoietic and immunity functions, the pathway is also required during development for processes including embryonic segmentation, tracheal morphogenesis, posterior spiracle formation etc. This study describes Drosophila Ken&Barbie (Ken) as a selective regulator of JAK/STAT signalling. ken mutations identified in a screen for modulators of an eye overgrowth phenotype, caused by over-expression of the pathway ligand unpaired, also interact genetically with the pathway receptor domeless (dome) and the transcription factor stat92E. Over-expression of Ken can phenocopy developmental defects known to be caused by the loss of JAK/STAT signalling. These genetic interactions suggest that Ken may function as a negative regulator of the pathway. Ken has C-terminal Zn-finger domain, presumably for DNA binding, and N-terminal BTB/POZ domain, often found in transcriptional repressors. Using EGFP-fused construct expressed in vivo revealed nuclear accumulation of Ken. Therefore, it is proposed that Ken may act as a suppresser of STAT92E target genes. An in vitro assay, termed SELEX, determined that Ken specifically binds to a DNA sequence, with the essential for DNA recognition core overlapping that of STAT92E. This interesting observation suggests that not all STAT92E sites may also allow Ken binding. Strikingly, when effects of ectopic Ken on the expression of putative JAK/STAT pathway target genes were examined, only a subset of the genes tested, namely vvl, trh and kni, were down-regulated by Ken, whereas some others, such as eve and fj, appeared to be unresponsive. Further analysis of vvl, one of the genes susceptible to ectopic Ken, was undertaken. In the developing hindgut, expression of vvl is JAK/STAT pathway dependent, but remains repressed in the posterior spiracles, despite the stimulation of STAT92E by Upd in their primordia. Importantly, ken is also expressed in the developing posterior spiracles. Strikingly, up-regulation of vvl is observed in these tissues in ken mutant embryos. These imply that while ectopic Ken is sufficient to repress the expression of vvl in the hindgut, endogenous Ken is also necessary to prevent its activation in the posterior spiracles. It is therefore conceivable that ectopic vvl expression in the posterior spiracles of the ken mutants may be the result of de-repression of endogenous STAT92E activity. Another consequence of these observations is a fine balance that must exist between STAT92E and Ken activities. Apparently, endogenous level of Ken is sufficient to repress vvl, but not other, as yet unidentified, JAK/STAT pathway targets, whose presumable activation by STAT92E is required for posterior spiracle development as the embryos mutant for dome, the receptor of the pathway, show severe spiracle defects. These defects are also observed in the embryos mis-expressing Ken. Though it is possible that the posterior spiracle phenotype caused by higher levels of Ken results from a JAK/STAT pathway independent activity, it seems to be more likely that Ken acts in a dosage dependent manner, and extra Ken is able to further antagonise JAK/STAT pathway target genes. While STAT92E binding sites required for target gene expression have been poorly characterised, the existence of genome data allows the prediction of candidate STAT92E sites present in target genes promoters to be attempted. When a 6kb region containing the putative regulatory domains flanking the vvl locus are examined, only a single potential STAT92E binding site located 825bp upstream of the translational start can be detected. Strikingly, this site also includes a perfect Ken binding sequence. Such an in silico observation, though consistent with both Ken DNA binding assay in vitro and regulation of STAT92E target genes in vivo, however, requires further analysis. The JAK/STAT pathway is implicated in a variety of processes during embryonic and larval development as well as in imago. In each case, stimulation of the same transcription factor results in different developmental outcomes. While many potential mechanisms have been proposed and demonstrated to explain such pleiotropy, the present study indicates that Ken may represent another mechanism, with which signal transduction pathways are controlled. Ken selectively down-regulates a subset of potential target genes and so modifies the transcriptional profile generated by activated STAT92E - a mechanism, which may be partially responsible for differences in the morphogenetic processes elicited by JAK/STAT signalling during development.

Parameter identification of structural dynamic models by inverse statistical analysis

Auf dem Gebiet der Strukturdynamik sind computergestützte Modellvalidierungstechniken inzwischen weit verbreitet. Dabei werden experimentelle Modaldaten, um ein numerisches Modell für weitere Analysen zu korrigieren. Gleichwohl repräsentiert das validierte Modell nur das dynamische Verhalten der getesteten Struktur. In der Realität gibt es wiederum viele Faktoren, die zwangsläufig zu variierenden Ergebnissen von Modaltests führen werden: Sich verändernde Umgebungsbedingungen während eines Tests, leicht unterschiedliche Testaufbauten, ein Test an einer nominell gleichen aber anderen Struktur (z.B. aus der Serienfertigung), etc. Damit eine stochastische Simulation durchgeführt werden kann, muss eine Reihe von Annahmen für die verwendeten Zufallsvariablengetroffen werden. Folglich bedarf es einer inversen Methode, die es ermöglicht ein stochastisches Modell aus experimentellen Modaldaten zu identifizieren. Die Arbeit beschreibt die Entwicklung eines parameter-basierten Ansatzes, um stochastische Simulationsmodelle auf dem Gebiet der Strukturdynamik zu identifizieren. Die entwickelte Methode beruht auf Sensitivitäten erster Ordnung, mit denen Parametermittelwerte und Kovarianzen des numerischen Modells aus stochastischen experimentellen Modaldaten bestimmt werden können.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.