A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Verfahren zur echtzeitfähigen Simulation dynamischer Emissionsverläufe ausgewählter Schadstoffe von Ottomotoren

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden Modellbildungsverfahren zur echtzeitfähigen Simulation wichtiger Schadstoffkomponenten im Abgasstrom von Verbrennungsmotoren vorgestellt. Es wird ein ganzheitlicher Entwicklungsablauf dargestellt, dessen einzelne Schritte, beginnend bei der Ver-suchsplanung über die Erstellung einer geeigneten Modellstruktur bis hin zur Modellvalidierung, detailliert beschrieben werden. Diese Methoden werden zur Nachbildung der dynamischen Emissi-onsverläufe relevanter Schadstoffe des Ottomotors angewendet. Die abgeleiteten Emissionsmodelle dienen zusammen mit einer Gesamtmotorsimulation zur Optimierung von Betriebstrategien in Hybridfahrzeugen. Im ersten Abschnitt der Arbeit wird eine systematische Vorgehensweise zur Planung und Erstellung von komplexen, dynamischen und echtzeitfähigen Modellstrukturen aufgezeigt. Es beginnt mit einer physikalisch motivierten Strukturierung, die eine geeignete Unterteilung eines Prozessmodells in einzelne überschaubare Elemente vorsieht. Diese Teilmodelle werden dann, jeweils ausgehend von einem möglichst einfachen nominalen Modellkern, schrittweise erweitert und ermöglichen zum Abschluss eine robuste Nachbildung auch komplexen, dynamischen Verhaltens bei hinreichender Genauigkeit. Da einige Teilmodelle als neuronale Netze realisiert werden, wurde eigens ein Verfah-ren zur sogenannten diskreten evidenten Interpolation (DEI) entwickelt, das beim Training einge-setzt, und bei minimaler Messdatenanzahl ein plausibles, also evidentes Verhalten experimenteller Modelle sicherstellen kann. Zum Abgleich der einzelnen Teilmodelle wurden statistische Versuchs-pläne erstellt, die sowohl mit klassischen DoE-Methoden als auch mittels einer iterativen Versuchs-planung (iDoE ) generiert wurden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden, nach Ermittlung der wichtigsten Einflussparameter, die Model-strukturen zur Nachbildung dynamischer Emissionsverläufe ausgewählter Abgaskomponenten vor-gestellt, wie unverbrannte Kohlenwasserstoffe (HC), Stickstoffmonoxid (NO) sowie Kohlenmono-xid (CO). Die vorgestellten Simulationsmodelle bilden die Schadstoffkonzentrationen eines Ver-brennungsmotors im Kaltstart sowie in der anschließenden Warmlaufphase in Echtzeit nach. Im Vergleich zur obligatorischen Nachbildung des stationären Verhaltens wird hier auch das dynami-sche Verhalten des Verbrennungsmotors in transienten Betriebsphasen ausreichend korrekt darge-stellt. Eine konsequente Anwendung der im ersten Teil der Arbeit vorgestellten Methodik erlaubt, trotz einer Vielzahl von Prozesseinflussgrößen, auch hier eine hohe Simulationsqualität und Ro-bustheit. Die Modelle der Schadstoffemissionen, eingebettet in das dynamische Gesamtmodell eines Ver-brennungsmotors, werden zur Ableitung einer optimalen Betriebsstrategie im Hybridfahrzeug ein-gesetzt. Zur Lösung solcher Optimierungsaufgaben bieten sich modellbasierte Verfahren in beson-derer Weise an, wobei insbesondere unter Verwendung dynamischer als auch kaltstartfähiger Mo-delle und der damit verbundenen Realitätsnähe eine hohe Ausgabequalität erreicht werden kann.

Large-Size AlGaN/GaN HEMT Large-Signal Electrothermal Characterization and Modeling for Wireless Digital Communications

The rapid growth in high data rate communication systems has introduced new high spectral efficient modulation techniques and standards such as LTE-A (long term evolution-advanced) for 4G (4th generation) systems. These techniques have provided a broader bandwidth but introduced high peak-to-average power ratio (PAR) problem at the high power amplifier (HPA) level of the communication system base transceiver station (BTS). To avoid spectral spreading due to high PAR, stringent requirement on linearity is needed which brings the HPA to operate at large back-off power at the expense of power efficiency. Consequently, high power devices are fundamental in HPAs for high linearity and efficiency. Recent development in wide bandgap power devices, in particular AlGaN/GaN HEMT, has offered higher power level with superior linearity-efficiency trade-off in microwaves communication. For cost-effective HPA design to production cycle, rigorous computer aided design (CAD) AlGaN/GaN HEMT models are essential to reflect real response with increasing power level and channel temperature. Therefore, large-size AlGaN/GaN HEMT large-signal electrothermal modeling procedure is proposed. The HEMT structure analysis, characterization, data processing, model extraction and model implementation phases have been covered in this thesis including trapping and self-heating dispersion accounting for nonlinear drain current collapse. The small-signal model is extracted using the 22-element modeling procedure developed in our department. The intrinsic large-signal model is deeply investigated in conjunction with linearity prediction. The accuracy of the nonlinear drain current has been enhanced through several issues such as trapping and self-heating characterization. Also, the HEMT structure thermal profile has been investigated and corresponding thermal resistance has been extracted through thermal simulation and chuck-controlled temperature pulsed I(V) and static DC measurements. Higher-order equivalent thermal model is extracted and implemented in the HEMT large-signal model to accurately estimate instantaneous channel temperature. Moreover, trapping and self-heating transients has been characterized through transient measurements. The obtained time constants are represented by equivalent sub-circuits and integrated in the nonlinear drain current implementation to account for complex communication signals dynamic prediction. The obtained verification of this table-based large-size large-signal electrothermal model implementation has illustrated high accuracy in terms of output power, gain, efficiency and nonlinearity prediction with respect to standard large-signal test signals.

Dynamic Injection of Scribble Features into Graphical Diagram Editors

Almost everyone sketches. People use sketches day in and day out in many different and heterogeneous fields, to share their thoughts and clarify ambiguous interpretations, for example. The media used to sketch varies from analog tools like flipcharts to digital tools like smartboards. Whereas analog tools are usually affected by insufficient editing capabilities like cut/copy/paste, digital tools greatly support these scenarios. Digital tools can be grouped into informal and formal tools. Informal tools can be understood as simple drawing environments, whereas formal tools offer sophisticated support to create, optimize and validate diagrams of a certain application domain. Most digital formal tools force users to stick to a concrete syntax and editing workflow, limiting the user’s creativity. For that reason, a lot of people first sketch their ideas using the flexibility of analog or digital informal tools. Subsequently, the sketch is "portrayed" in an appropriate digital formal tool. This work presents Scribble, a highly configurable and extensible sketching framework which allows to dynamically inject sketching features into existing graphical diagram editors, based on Eclipse GEF. This allows to combine the flexibility of informal tools with the power of formal tools without any effort. No additional code is required to augment a GEF editor with sophisticated sketching features. Scribble recognizes drawn elements as well as handwritten text and automatically generates the corresponding domain elements. A local training data library is created dynamically by incrementally learning shapes, drawn by the user. Training data can be shared with others using the WebScribble web application which has been created as part of this work.