Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Higher Education Governance in Vietnam: University Action, the State and Changing Relationships

Diese Dissertation stellt eine Studie da, welche sich mit den Änderungen in der Governance der Hochschulbildung in Vietnam beschäftigt. Das zentrale Ziel dieser Forschungsarbeit ist die Untersuchung der Herkunft und Änderung in der Beziehung der Mächte zwischen dem vietnamesischen Staat und den Hochschulbildungsinstituten (HI), welche hauptsächlich aus der Interaktion dieser beiden Akteure resultiert. Die Macht dieser beiden Akteure wurde im sozialen Bereich konstruiert und ist hauptsächlich durch ihre Nützlichkeit und Beiträge für die Hochschulbildung bestimmt. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich dabei besonders mit dem Aspekt der Lehrqualität. Diese Studie nimmt dabei die Perspektive einer allgemeinen Governance ein, um die Beziehung zwischen Staat und HI zu erforschen. Zudem verwendet sie die „Resource Dependence Theory“ (RDT), um das Verhalten der HI in Bezug auf die sich verändernde Umgebung zu untersuchen, welche durch die Politik und eine abnehmende Finanzierung charakterisiert ist. Durch eine empirische Untersuchung der Regierungspolitik sowie der internen Steuerung und den Praktiken der vier führenden Universitäten kommt die Studie zu dem Schluss, dass unter Berücksichtigung des Drucks der Schaffung von Einkommen die vietnamesischen Universitäten sowohl Strategien als auch Taktiken entwickelt haben, um Ressourcenflüsse und Legitimität zu kontrollieren. Die Entscheidungs- und Zielfindung der Komitees, die aus einer Mehrheit von Akademikern bestehen, sind dabei mächtiger als die der Manager. Daher werden bei initiativen Handlungen der Universitäten größtenteils Akademiker mit einbezogen. Gestützt auf die sich entwickelnden Muster der Ressourcenbeiträge von Akademikern und Studierenden für die Hochschulbildung prognostiziert die Studie eine aufstrebende Governance Konfiguration, bei der die Dimensionen der akademischen Selbstverwaltung und des Wettbewerbsmarktes stärker werden und die Regulation des Staates rational zunimmt. Das derzeitige institutionelle Design und administrative System des Landes, die spezifische Gewichtung und die Koordinationsmechanismen, auch als sogenanntes effektives Aufsichtssystem zwischen den drei Schlüsselakteuren - der Staat, die HI/Akademiker und die Studierenden – bezeichnet, brauchen eine lange Zeit zur Detektion und Etablierung. In der aktuellen Phase der Suche nach einem solchen System sollte die Regierung Management-Tools stärken, wie zum Beispiel die Akkreditierung, belohnende und marktbasierte Instrumente und das Treffen informations-basierter Entscheidungen. Darüber hinaus ist es notwendig die Transparenz der Politik zu erhöhen und mehr Informationen offenzulegen.

Prevalence of intestinal parasites in small ruminants and their senstivity to treatments with ethnobotanical remedies in Cholistan, Pakistan

Livestock production contributes substantially to the livelihoods of poor rural farmers in Pakistan; strengthening pastoral communities plays an imperative role in the country’s thrive for poverty alleviation. Intestinal helminths constitute a major threat for pastoral livestock keepers in the whole country because chronic infestation leads to distinct losses in livestock productivity, particularly the growth of young animals. Synthetic anthelmintics have long been considered the only effective way of controlling this problem but high prices, side effects and chemical residues/toxicity problems, or development of resistance, lead to their very limited use in many pastoral systems. Additionally, poor pastoralists in remote areas of Pakistan hardly have access to appropriate anthelmintic drugs, which are also relatively expensive due to the long routes of transportation. The search for new and more sustainable ways of supporting livestock keepers in remote areas has given rise to studies of ethno-botanicals or traditional plant-based remedies to be used in livestock health care. Plant-based remedies are cheap or free of cost, environmentally safe and generally create no problem of drug resistance; they thus might substitute allopathic drugs. Furthermore, these remedies are easily available in remote areas and simple to prepare and/or administer. Cholistan desert is a quite poor region of Pakistan and the majority of its inhabitants are practicing a nomadic life. The region’s total livestock population (1.29 million heads) is almost twice that of the human population. Livestock husbandry is the primordial occupation of the communities and traditionally wealth assessment was based on the number of animals, especially goats and sheep, owned by an individual. Fortunately, about 60% of this desert region is richly endowed with highly adapted grasses, shrubs and trees. This natural flora has a rich heritage of scientifically unexplored botanical pharmacopoeia. Against this background, the present research project that was conducted under the umbrella of the International Center for Development and Decent Work at Kassel University, focused on a development aspect: in the Cholistan desert region it was firstly examined how pastoralists manage their livestock, which major health problems they face for the different animal species, and which of the naturally occurring plants they use for the treatment of animal diseases (Chapter 2). For this purpose, a baseline survey was carried out across five locations in Cholistan, using a structured questionnaire to collect data from 100 livestock farmers (LF) and 20 local healers (LH). Most of LF and LH were illiterate (66%; 70%). On average, LH had larger herds (109 animals) than LF (85 animals) and were more experienced in livestock husbandry and management. On average LF spent about 163 Euro per year on the treatment of their livestock, with a huge variability in expenditures. Eighty-six traditional remedies based on 64 plants belonging to 43 families were used. Capparaceae was the botanical family with the largest number of species used (4), followed by Chenopodiaceae, Poaceae, Solanaceae and Zygophyllaceae (3). The plants Capparis decidua (n=55 mentions), Salsola foetida (n=52), Suaeda fruticosa (n=46), Haloxylon salicornicum (n=42) and Haloxylon recurvum (n=39) were said to be most effective against the infestations with gastrointestinal parasites. Aerial parts (43%), leaves (26%), fruits (9%), seeds and seed oils (9%) were the plant parts frequently used for preparation of remedies, while flowers, roots, bulbs and pods were less frequently used (<5%). Common preparations were decoction, jaggery and ball drench; oral drug administration was very common. There was some variation in the doses used for different animal species depending on age, size and physical condition of the animal and severity of the disease. In a second step the regionally most prevalent gastrointestinal parasites of sheep and goats were determined (Chapter 3) in 500 animals per species randomly chosen from pastoral herds across the previously studied five localities. Standard parasitological techniques were applied to identify the parasites in faecal samples manually collected at the rectum. Overall helminth prevalence was 78.1% across the 1000 animals; pure nematode infestations were most prevalent (37.5%), followed by pure trematode (7.9%), pure cestode (2.6%) and pure protozoa infestations (0.8%). Mixed infestations with nematodes and trematodes occurred in 6.4% of all animals, mixed nematode-cestode infestations in 3.8%, and all three groups were found in 19.1% of the sheep and goats. In goats more males (81.1%) than females (77.0%) were infested, the opposite was found in sheep (73.6% males, 79.5% females). Parasites were especially prevalent in suckling goats (85.2%) and sheep (88.5%) and to a lesser extent in young (goats 80.6%, sheep 79.3%) and adult animals (goats 72.8%, sheep 73.8%). Haemonchus contortus, Trichuris ovis and Paramphistomum cervi were the most prevalent helminths. In a third step the in vitro anthelmintic activity of C. decidua, S. foetida, S. fruticosa, H. salicornicum and H. recurvum (Chapter 2) was investigated against adult worms of H. contortus, T. ovis and P. cervi (Chapter 3) via adult motility assay (Chapter 4). Various concentrations ranging from 7.8 to 500 mg dry matter/ml of three types of extracts of each plant, i.e. aqueous, methanol, and aqueous-methanol (30:70), were used at different time intervals to access their anthelmintic activity. Levamisol (0.55 mg/ml) and oxyclozanide (30 mg/ml) served as positive and phosphate-buffered saline as negative control. All extracts exhibited minimum and maximum activity at 2 h and 12 h after parasite exposure; the 500 mg/ml extract concentrations were most effective. Plant species (P<0.05), extract type (P<0.01), parasite species (P<0.01), extract concentration (P<0.01), time of exposure (P<0.01) and their interactions (P<0.01) had significant effects on the number of immobile/dead helminths. From the comparison of LC50 values it appeared that the aqueous extract of C. decidua was more potent against H. contortus and T. ovis, while the aqueous extract of S. foetida was effective against P. cervi. The methanol extracts of H. recurvum were most potent against all three types of parasites, and its aqueous-methanol extract was also very effective against T. ovis and P. cervi. Based on these result it is concluded that the aqueous extract of C. decidua, as well as the methanol and aqueous-methanol extract of H. recurvum have the potential to be developed into plant-based drugs for treatment against H. contortus, T. ovis and P. cervi infestations. Further studies are now needed to investigate the in vivo anthelmintic activity of these plants and plant extracts, respectively, in order to develop effective, cheap and locally available anthelmintics for pastoralists in Cholistan and neighboring desert regions. This will allow developing tangible recommendations for plant-based anthelminthic treatment of sheep and goat herds, and by this enable pastoralists to maintain healthy and productive flocks at low costs and probably even manufacture herbal drugs for marketing on a regional scale.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.