Interannual and interdecadal oscillations in hydrological variables: Sources and modeling of the persistence in the Elbe River Basin

Wenn man die Existenz von physikalischen Mechanismen ignoriert, die für die Struktur hydrologischer Zeitreihen verantwortlich sind, kann das zu falschen Schlussfolgerungen bzgl. des Vorhandenseins möglicher Gedächtnis (memory) -Effekte, d.h. von Persistenz, führen. Die hier vorgelegte Doktorarbeit spürt der niedrigfrequenten klimatischen Variabilität innerhalb den hydrologischen Zyklus nach und bietet auf dieser "Reise" neue Einsichten in die Transformation der charakteristischen Eigenschaften von Zeitreihen mit einem Langzeitgedächtnis. Diese Studie vereint statistische Methoden der Zeitreihenanalyse mit empirisch-basierten Modelltechniken, um operative Modelle zu entwickeln, die in der Lage sind (1) die Dynamik des Abflusses zu modellieren, (2) sein zukünftiges Verhalten zu prognostizieren und (3) die Abflusszeitreihen an unbeobachteten Stellen abzuschätzen. Als solches präsentiert die hier vorgelegte Dissertation eine ausführliche Untersuchung zu den Ursachen der niedrigfrequenten Variabilität von hydrologischen Zeitreihen im deutschen Teil des Elbe-Einzugsgebietes, den Folgen dieser Variabilität und den physikalisch basierten Reaktionen von Oberflächen- und Grundwassermodellen auf die niedrigfrequenten Niederschlags-Eingangsganglinien. Die Doktorarbeit gliedert sich wie folgt: In Kapitel 1 wird als Hintergrundinformation das Hurst Phänomen beschrieben und ein kurzer Rückblick auf diesbezügliche Studien gegeben. Das Kapitel 2 diskutiert den Einfluss der Präsenz von niedrigfrequenten periodischen Zeitreihen auf die Zuverlässigkeit verschiedener Hurst-Parameter-Schätztechniken. Kapitel 3 korreliert die niedrigfrequente Niederschlagsvariabilität mit dem Index der Nord-Atlantischen Ozillations (NAO). Kapitel 4-6 sind auf den deutschen Teil des Elbe-Einzugsgebietes fokussiert. So werden in Kapitel 4 die niedrigfrequenten Variabilitäten der unterschiedlichen hydro-meteorologischen Parameter untersucht und es werden Modelle beschrieben, die die Dynamik dieser Niedrigfrequenzen und deren zukünftiges Verhalten simulieren. Kapitel 5 diskutiert die mögliche Anwendung der Ergebnisse für die charakteristische Skalen und die Verfahren der Analyse der zeitlichen Variabilität auf praktische Fragestellungen im Wasserbau sowie auf die zeitliche Bestimmung des Gebiets-Abflusses an unbeobachteten Stellen. Kapitel 6 verfolgt die Spur der Niedrigfrequenzzyklen im Niederschlag durch die einzelnen Komponenten des hydrologischen Zyklus, nämlich dem Direktabfluss, dem Basisabfluss, der Grundwasserströmung und dem Gebiets-Abfluss durch empirische Modellierung. Die Schlussfolgerungen werden im Kapitel 7 präsentiert. In einem Anhang werden technische Einzelheiten zu den verwendeten statistischen Methoden und die entwickelten Software-Tools beschrieben.

The Corticiaceae (Basidiomycetes) in Taiwan

Geographically, Taiwan is an Island and situated in the northeast of Asia, on the western side of the Pacific Basin, at the southeast of main China, south of Japan, and north of the Philippines. The main topographic character is the longitudinally oriented mountainous area. More than 200 peaks rise above 3000 m. They departed Taiwan into two lowland areas, an eastern and western plain. Taiwan is departed into subtropical (north area) and tropical zone (south area), which have a warm and humid climate, due to the Tropic of Cancer passing through. The average annual temperature in the lowland amounts to 28°C (7~38°C). The temperate climate also presents in the mountainous areas. The tropical typhoons usually come in summer and bring heavy rain, while the monsoon seasons have an important effect on the regional rainfall distribution. The mean annual rainfall of Taiwan is about 2600 mm (1000~6700 mm); the mountainous areas receive more rain than the lowlands. In Taiwan, according to different temperature and vegetation, the ecological environments were given rise to vertical biotic zonations, and form five major types: highland snowfield, highland meadow, coniferous forest, deciduous forest, and tropical forest. Six National Parks in Taiwan are located in the mountainous areas, in the north, the south, and on Jinmen Island. The National Parks represent about 8.4% of the country area. In this study, the collection sites are situated in Yangmingshan, Shei-Pa, Yushan, and Kenting National Park. Due to the island isolation, the proportions of endemic species are great in Taiwan, which also presents a high biodiversity. There are 4255 species of vascular plants including 1133 endemic. 5936 species in 1276 genera of fungi are hitherto reported in Taiwan. Among them, 233 Corticiaceae species were recorded, over one third (79 species) of them are known only from Taiwan. The first fungal report in Taiwan is about Phytophthora cyperi, published by the Japanese researcher T. Kawakami in 1904. Therefore, the history of research about fungi in Taiwan is more than one hundred years old. An eminent Japanese mycologist K. Sawada made an intensive survey from 1919 to 1959, and reported 2464 fungi species in his eleven volumes of “Descriptive Catalogue of Formosan Fungi”. However, only a few species (21 species in 9 genera) of Corticiaceae were recorded. From 1973, Chen and Lin resumed the study on Corticiaceae, and also some other foreign mycologists contributed for this field after 1980. The German research group lead by Franz Oberwinkler from Tübingen University collected in Taiwan several times. They published a number of new species and new records. Since 1989, S. H. Wu, a Taiwanese mycologist, has published a great amount of reports on corticioid fungi from Taiwan. Corticioid fungi were made up by the large and heterogeneous unnatural family Corticiaceae and other resupinate fungi belonging to other natural families in the Agaricomycetes. Molecular studies have shown that corticioid genera are distributed across all major clades of Agaricomycetes indicating that the corticioid fungi represent a polyphyletic group. They have resupinate fruitbodies and similar habitats. Species are characterized by simple fruitbody, more or less effused, and present smooth, porioid, grandinioid to odontioid hymenial surface. The fruitbodies are differently colored and usually soft to tough. Most of the Corticiaceae species are wood-saprobic organisms and gain the energy from the decomposing of wood-substrate such as cellulose or lignin. Materials for this study were collected by the author and other mycologists in Taiwan during surveys in April and May 1996, and March 2007, using the spring season with its high humidity and warm climate which are optimal conditions for the development of fungi. For assembling, the convenience sampling method was used in this study. This approach was chosen because it enables to detect a high biodiversity in a short time, and also to find species with rare or patchy distribution. The collecting sites from the North to the South include four National Parks and some preserved forests. They cover many different habitats such as low lands and high mountains. Fresh specimens were dried and analysed with a light microscope. 265 specimens belonging to Corticiaceae were studied in this research. Among them, 50 species in 21 genera including 11 new records and 10 new species were described with text and drawing. Four new species are belonging to Hyphodontia (H. sp. nov. 1, H. sp. nov. 2, H. sp. nov. 3, and H. sp. nov. 4), four to Schizopora (Sch. sp. nov. 1, Sch. sp. nov. 2, Sch. sp. nov. 3, and Sch. sp. nov. 4), one in Trechispora (T. sp. nov. 1), and one in Tubulicrinis (T. sp. nov. 1). Species recorded as new are Aleurodiscus amorphus, Botryohypochnus isabellinus, Hyphodontia cineracea, Hyphodontia palmae, Hypochnicium vellereum, Merulius tremellosus, Metulodontia nivea, Paullicorticium ansatum, Phlebia radiata, Phlebiella ardosiaca, and Xylobolus frustulatus. Besides, Botryohypochnus, Merulius, Metulodontia, Paullicorticium, and Xylobolus are also newly recorded genera in Taiwan. The genus Hyphodontia presents the highest diversity with 20 out of 50 species recorded. The second important genus is Hyphoderma, however with only 5 species. This indicates that Hyphodontia and Hyphoderma have a higher ability to develop in variable environments and approximately shows the predominance of these two genera in Taiwanese Corticiaceae. There are 11 new records out of the 50 species recorded, representing 22%. Some species, e.g. Hypochnicium vellereum and Paullicorticium ansatum were in the past recorded only in Europe and North America with cold and temperate climate. The samples of them are for the first time found in the subtropical belt, and display some difference from those of temperate regions. These collections should be molecularly investigated to clarify if they represent the same species of temperate areas. Patchily distributed species, for example Phlebiella ardosiaca, previously known only in Europe, and Hyphodontia palmae collected only in Brazil, were first recorded in different continents. Two possibilities are indicated by these new records: they are worldwide species but very rare to be found, or the Taiwanese specimens are taxonomically different. More survey from other continents and molecular study for these collections should be done in the future to solve this question. The distribution of Corticiaceae in Taiwan presents the variations in the north, central, and south areas and shows the diversity in lowlands and high mountains. The results of this study provide the evidence that the temperate Corticiaceae species displays a wider distribution. Subtropical and tropical taxa probably have also high dispersal capacities, and could possibly be found in the future in neighboring areas such as China, Japan, Korea or South Asia, but this needs further researches. In the total of 50 species, 10 new taxa were described in this study, giving about 20%. Some new species (e.g. Hyphodontia sp. 1, Hyphodontia sp. 2, and Hyphodontia sp. 3) are very similar to known species (Hyphodontia sambuci and Hyphodontia formosana), and the distinctive characters of Schizopora sp. nov. 1 are intermediate between those of Schizopora paradoxa and Hyphodontia flavipora. Thus, these small differences between the new and known species, suggest that the speciation occurred when the fungi migrated into Taiwan, due to the high diversity of environment, and amounts of the endemic plants. Taiwan is an intermediate place for the south (tropical) fungal species to migrate and adapt to north (temperate) regions. The middle and high altitude environments in Taiwan offer good conditions for the fungal speciation and possibly the occurrence of physiological changes to adapt to the temperate climate. Thus Taiwan has an important position for the biogeography of Asia mycobiota. 5936 known species in Taiwan represent about only 20% of the estimated number (24000) of Taiwanese fungal taxa. In this study, the findings (22% new records and 20% new species) indicate that amounts of unknown fungi species are expected in Taiwan. The lack of knowledge indicates that many new species are awaiting description, and fungal survey in Taiwan remains in a Pioneer phase. The last three wide surveys of Corticiaceae researches took place 20 years before this study (Chen & Lin 1977, Lin & Chen 1989, Wu 1990). After previous important contributions, the present taxonomic study comprising 21 genera is the most extensive on Corticiaceae of Taiwan.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Effects of transformation processes in 'jubraka' agroforestry systems of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, on nutrient fluxes

Intensification processes in homegardens of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, raise concerns about strongly positive carbon (C) and nutrient balances which are expected to lead to substantial element losses from these agroecosystems, in particular via soil gaseous emissions. Therefore, this thesis aimed at the quantification of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) input and output fluxes with a special focus on soil gaseous losses, and the calculation of respective element balances. A further focus in this thesis was rainfall, a valuable resource for rain-fed agriculture in the Nuba Mountains. To minimize negative consequences of the high variability of rainfall, risk reducing mechanisms were developed by rain-fed farmers that may lose their efficacy in the course of climate change effects predicted for East Africa. Therefore, the second objective of this study was to examine possible changes in rainfall amounts during the last 60 years and to provide reliable risk and probability statements of rainfall-induced events of agricultural importance to rain-fed farmers in the Nuba Mountains. Soil gaseous emissions of C (in form of CO2) and N (in form of NH3 and N2O) of two traditional and two intensified homegardens were determined with a portable dynamic closed chamber system. For C gaseous emission rates reached their peak at the onset of the rainy season (2,325 g CO2-C ha-1 h-1 in an intensified garden type) and for N during the rainy season (16 g NH3-N ha-1 h-1 and 11.3 g N2O-N ha-1 h-1, in a traditional garden type). Data indicated cumulative annual emissions of 5,893 kg CO2-C ha-1, 37 kg NH3-N ha-1, and 16 kg N2O-N ha-1. For the assessment of the long-term productivity of the two types of homegardens and the identification of pathways of substantial element losses, a C and nutrient budget approach was used. In three traditional and three intensified homegardens observation plots were selected. The following variables were quantified on each plot between June and December in 2010: soil amendments, irrigation, biomass removal, symbiotic N2 fixation, C fixation by photosynthesis, atmospheric wet and dry deposition, leaching and soil gaseous emissions. Annual balances for C and nutrients amounted to -21 kg C ha-1, -70 kg N ha-1, 9 kg P ha-1 and -117 kg K ha-1 in intensified homegardens and to -1,722 kg C ha-1, -167 kg N ha-1, -9 kg P ha-1 and -74 kg K ha-1 in traditional homegardens. For the analysis of rainfall data, the INSTAT+ software allowed to aggregate long-term daily rainfall records from the Kadugli and Rashad weather stations into daily, monthly and annual intervals and to calculate rainfall-induced events of agricultural importance. Subsequently, these calculated values and events were checked for possible monotonic trends by Mann-Kendall tests. Over the period from 1970 to 2009, annual rainfall did not change significantly for either station. However, during this period an increase of low rainfall events coinciding with a decline in the number of medium daily rainfall events was observed in Rashad. Furthermore, the availability of daily rainfall data enabled frequency and conditional probability calculations that showed either no statistically significant changes or trends resulting only in minor changes of probabilities.

Effects of transformation processes in 'jubraka' agroforestry systems of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, on plant diversity

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

Wild food trees in Eastern Nuba Mountains, Sudan: Use diversity and threatening factors

This study was conducted in 2010 in Eastern Nuba Mountains, Sudan to investigate ethnobotanical food and non-food uses of 16 wild edible fruit producing trees. Quantitative and qualitative information was collected from 105 individuals distributed in 7 villages using a semi-structured questionnaire. Also gathering of data was done using a number of rapid rural appraisal techniques, including key informant interviews, group discussion, secondary data sources and direct observations. Data was analysed using fidelity level and informant consensus factor methods to reveal the cultural importance of species and use category. Utilizations for timber products were found of most community importance than food usages, especially during cultivated food abundance. Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus spina-christi and Tamarindus indica fruits were asserted as most preferable over the others and of high marketability in most of the study sites. Harvesting for timber-based utilizations in addition to agricultural expansion and overgrazing were the principal threats to wild edible food producing trees in the area. The on and off prevailing armed conflict in the area make it crucial to conserve wild food trees which usually play a more significant role in securing food supply during emergency times, especially in times of famine and wars. Increasing the awareness of population on importance of wild food trees and securing alternative income sources, other than wood products, is necessary in any rural development programme aiming at securing food and sustaining its resources in the area.