Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

Nitrogen and carbon dynamics in grassland soils and plants after application of digestate

A better understanding of effects after digestate application on plant community, soil microbial community as well as nutrient and carbon dynamics is crucial for a sustainable grassland management and the prevention of species and functional diversity loss. The specific research objectives of the thesis were: (i) to investigate effects after digestate application on grass species and soil microbial community, especially focussing on nitrogen dynamic in the plant-soil system and to examine the suitability of the digestate from the “integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass” (IFBB) system as fertilizer (Chapter 3). (ii) to investigate the relationship between plant community and functionality of soil microbial community of extensively managed meadows, taking into account temporal variations during the vegetation period and abiotic soil conditions (Chapter 4). (iii) to investigate the suitability of IFBB-concept implementation as grassland conservation measure for meadows and possible associated effects of IFBB digestate application on plant and soil microbial community as well as soil microbial substrate utilization and catabolic evenness (Chapter 5). Taken together the results indicate that the digestate generated during the IFBB process stands out from digestates of conventional whole crop digestion on the basis of higher nitrogen use efficiency and that it is useful for increasing harvestable biomass and the nitrogen content of the biomass, especially of L. perenne, which is a common species of intensively used grasslands. Further, a medium application rate of IFBB digestate (50% of nitrogen removed with harvested biomass, corresponding to 30 50 kg N ha-1 a-1) may be a possibility for conservation management of different meadows without changing the functional above- and belowground characteristic of the grasslands, thereby offering an ecologically worthwhile alternative to mulching. Overall, the soil microbial biomass and catabolic performance under planted soil was marginally affected by digestate application but rather by soil properties and partly by grassland species and legume occurrence. The investigated extensively managed meadows revealed a high soil catabolic evenness, which was resilient to medium IFBB application rate after a three-year period of application.

Diversity, local uses and availability of medicinal plants and wild yams in the Mahafaly region of south-western Madagascar

Short summary: This study was undertaken to assess the diversity of plant resources utilized by the local population in south-western Madagascar, the social, ecological and biophysical conditions that drive their uses and availability, and possible alternative strategies for their sustainable use in the region. The study region, ‘Mahafaly region’, located in south-western Madagascar, is one of the country’s most economically, educationally and climatically disadvantaged regions. With an arid steppe climate, the agricultural production is limited by low water availability and a low level of soil nutrients and soil organic carbon. The region comprises the recently extended Tsimanampetsotsa National Park, with numerous sacred and communities forests, which are threatened by slash and burn agriculture and overexploitation of forests resources. The present study analyzed the availability of wild yams and medicinal plants, and their importance for the livelihood of the local population in this region. An ethnobotanical survey was conducted recording the diversity, local knowledge and use of wild yams and medicinal plants utilized by the local communities in five villages in the Mahafaly region. 250 households were randomly selected followed by semi-structured interviews on the socio-economic characteristics of the households. Data allowed us to characterize sociocultural and socioeconomic factors that determine the local use of wild yams and medicinal plants, and to identify their role in the livelihoods of local people. Species-environment relationships and the current spatial distribution of the wild yams were investigated and predicted using ordination methods and a niche based habitat modelling approach. Species response curves along edaphic gradients allowed us to understand the species requirements on habitat conditions. We thus investigated various alternative methods to enhance the wild yam regeneration for their local conservation and their sustainable use in the Mahafaly region. Altogether, six species of wild yams and a total of 214 medicinal plants species from 68 families and 163 genera were identified in the study region. Results of the cluster and discriminant analysis indicated a clear pattern on resource, resulted in two groups of household and characterized by differences in livestock numbers, off-farm activities, agricultural land and harvests. A generalized linear model highlighted that economic factors significantly affect the collection intensity of wild yams, while the use of medicinal plants depends to a higher degree on socio-cultural factors. The gradient analysis on the distribution of the wild yam species revealed a clear pattern for species habitats. Species models based on NPMR (Nonparametric Multiplicative Regression analysis) indicated the importance of vegetation structure, human interventions, and soil characteristics to determine wild yam species distribution. The prediction of the current availability of wild yam resources showed that abundant wild yam resources are scarce and face high harvest intensity. Experiments on yams cultivation revealed that germination of seeds was enhanced by using pre-germination treatments before planting, vegetative regeneration performed better with the upper part of the tubers (corms) rather than the sets of tubers. In-situ regeneration was possible for the upper parts of the wild tubers but the success depended significantly on the type of soil. The use of manure (10-20 t ha¹) increased the yield of the D. alata and D. alatipes by 40%. We thus suggest the promotion of other cultivated varieties of D. alata found regions neighbouring as the Mahafaly Plateau.

Determination of the silvo-melliferous regions of Benin: a nationwide categorisation of the land based on melliferous plants suitable for timber production

Perennial plants are the main pollen and nectar sources for bees in the tropical areas where most of the annual flora are burned in dry seasons. Therefore perennial plants constitute the most reliable bio materials for determining and evaluating the beekeeping regions of the Republic of Benin. A silvo-melliferous region (S-MR) is a geographical area characterised by a particular set of homogenous melliferous plants that can produce timber. Using both the prevailing climatic and the agro-ecological conditions six S-MRs could be identified, i.e. the South region, the Common Central region, the Central West region, the Central North region, the Middle North region and the Extreme North region. At the country level, the melliferous plants were dominated by Vitellaria paradoxa which is common to all regions. The most diversified family was the Caesalpiniaceae (12 species) followed by the Combretaceae (10 species) and Combretum being the richest genus. The effect of dominance is particularly high in the South region where Elaeis guineensis alone represented 72.6% of the tree density and 140% of the total plant importance. The total melliferous plant density varied from 99.3 plants ha^(−1) in the Common Central region to 178.0 plants ha^(−1) in the Central West region. On the basis of nectar and pollen source, the best region for beekeeping is the CentralWest region with 46.7% of nectar producing trees, 9.4% of pollen producing trees and 40.6% of plants that issue both, this in opposition to the South region which was characterised by an unbalanced distribution of melliferous trees.