Determination of the silvo-melliferous regions of Benin: a nationwide categorisation of the land based on melliferous plants suitable for timber production

Perennial plants are the main pollen and nectar sources for bees in the tropical areas where most of the annual flora are burned in dry seasons. Therefore perennial plants constitute the most reliable bio materials for determining and evaluating the beekeeping regions of the Republic of Benin. A silvo-melliferous region (S-MR) is a geographical area characterised by a particular set of homogenous melliferous plants that can produce timber. Using both the prevailing climatic and the agro-ecological conditions six S-MRs could be identified, i.e. the South region, the Common Central region, the Central West region, the Central North region, the Middle North region and the Extreme North region. At the country level, the melliferous plants were dominated by Vitellaria paradoxa which is common to all regions. The most diversified family was the Caesalpiniaceae (12 species) followed by the Combretaceae (10 species) and Combretum being the richest genus. The effect of dominance is particularly high in the South region where Elaeis guineensis alone represented 72.6% of the tree density and 140% of the total plant importance. The total melliferous plant density varied from 99.3 plants ha^(−1) in the Common Central region to 178.0 plants ha^(−1) in the Central West region. On the basis of nectar and pollen source, the best region for beekeeping is the CentralWest region with 46.7% of nectar producing trees, 9.4% of pollen producing trees and 40.6% of plants that issue both, this in opposition to the South region which was characterised by an unbalanced distribution of melliferous trees.

Soil fertility and nutrient status of traditional Gayo coffee agroforestry systems in the Takengon region, Aceh Province, Indonesia

Little is known about the traditional coffee cultivation systems in Central Aceh, Indonesia, where coffee production is a major source of income for local Gayo people. Based on field observations and farmer interviews, 14 representative agroforestry coffee plantations of different age classes (60-70 years, 30-40 years, and 20 years) as well as seven adjacent grassland and native forest sites were selected for this study, and soil and coffee leaf samples collected for nutrient analysis. Significant differences in soil and coffee leaf parameters were found between former native forest and Sumatran pine (Pinus merkusii) forest as previous land cover indicating the importance of the land use history for today’s coffee cultivation. Soil pH as well as exchangeable Na and Ca concentrations were significantly lower on coffee plantations compared to grassland and forest sites. Soil C, N, plant available P, exchangeable K, and Mg concentrations showed no consistent differences between land use groups. Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations of coffee leaves were in the sufficiency range, whereas zinc (Zn) contents were found to be consistently below the sufficiency threshold and significantly lower in coffee plantations of previous pine forest cover compared to those of previous native forest cover. While the results of this study provided insights into the nutrient status of coffee plantations in Central Aceh, the heterogeneity of site conditions, limited sampling size, and scarcity of reliable data about the land use history and initial soil conditions of sampled sites preclude more definitive conclusions about the sustainability of the studied systems.

Sustainability of Small Scale Farming in a Mountain Region: Case Study of the Khaling Rai Population of the Solukhumbu, Nepal

The Khaling Rai live in a remote area of the mountain region of Nepal. Subsistence farming is central to their livelihood strategy, the sustainability of which was examined in this study. The sustainable livelihood approach was identified as a suitable theoretical framework to analyse the assets of the Khaling Rai. A baseline study was conducted using indicators to assess the outcome of the livelihood strategies under the three pillars of sustainability – economic, social and environmental. Relationships between key factors were analysed. The outcome showed that farming fulfils their basic need of food security, with self-sufficiency in terms of seeds, organic fertilisers and tools. Agriculture is almost totally non-monitized: crops are grown mainly for household consumption. However, the crux faced by the Khaling Rai community is the need to develop high value cash crops in order to improve their livelihoods while at the same time maintaining food security. Institutional support in this regard was found to be lacking. At the same time there is declining soil fertility and an expanding population, which results in smaller land holdings. The capacity to absorb risk is inhibited by the small size of the resource base and access only to small local markets. A two-pronged approach is recommended. Firstly, the formation of agricultural cooperative associations in the area. Secondly, through them the selection of key personnel to be put forward for training in the adoption of improved low-cost technologies for staple crops and in the introduction of appropriate new cash crops.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Interrelatedness of grazing livestock with vegetation parameters and farmers’ livelihoods in the Mahafaly region, southwestern Madagascar

The study aims to get deeper insight into the highly extensive system of animal husbandry in the Mahafaly region of southwestern Madagascar. It tries to understand the major drivers for pastoral dynamics, land and resource use along a gradient in altitude and vegetation to consider the area’s high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The study also analyzes the reproductive performance of local livestock as well as the owners’ culling strategies to determine herd dynamics, opportunities for economic growth, and future potential for rural development. Across seasons, plateau herds from both livestock species covered longer distances (cattle 13.6±3.02 km, goats 12.3±3.48 km) and were found further away from the settlements (cattle 3.1±0.96 km, goats 2.8±0.98 km) than those from the coastal plain (walking_dist: cattle 9.5±3.25 km, goats 9.2±2.57 km; max_dist: cattle 2.6±1.28 km, goats 1.8±0.61 km). Transhumant cattle were detected more vulnerable through limited access to pasture land and water resources compared to local herds. Seasonal water shortage has been confirmed as a key constraint on the plateau while livestock keeping along the coast is more limited by dry season forage availability. However, recent security issues and land use conflicts with local crop farmers are gaining importance and force livestock owners to adapt their traditional grazing management, resulting in spatio-temporal variation of livestock numbers and in the impending risk of local overgrazing and degradation of rangelands. Among the 133 plant species consumed by livestock, 13 were determined of major importance for the animals’ nutrition. The nutritive value and digestibility of the natural forage, as well as its abundance in the coastal zone, substantially decreased over the course of the dry season and emphasized the importance of supplementary forage plants, in particular Euphorbia stenoclada. At the same time, an unsustainable utilization and overexploitation of its wild stocks may raise the pressure on the vegetation and pasture resources within the nearby Tsimanampetsotsa National Park. Age at first parturition was 40.5±0.59 months for cattle and 21.3±0.63 months for goats. Both species showed long parturition intervals (cattle 24.2±0.48 months, goats 12.4±0.30 months), mostly due to the maintenance of poorly performing breeding females within the herds. Reported offspring mortality, however, was low with 2.5% of cattle and 18.8% of goats dying before reaching maturity. The analysis of economic information revealed higher than expected market dynamics, especially for zebus, resulting in annual contribution margins of 33 € per cattle unit and 11 € per goat unit. The application of the PRY Herd Life model to simulate herd development for present management and two alternate scenarios confirmed the economic profitability of the current livestock system and showed potential for further productive and economic development. However, this might be clearly limited by the region’s restricted carrying capacity. Summarizing, this study illustrates the highly extensive and resources-driven character of the livestock system in the Mahafaly region, with herd mobility being a central element to cope with seasonal shortages in forage and water. But additional key drivers and external factors are gaining importance and increasingly affect migration decisions and grazing management. This leads to an increased risk of local overgrazing and overexploitation of natural pasture resources and intensifies the tension between pastoral and conservation interests. At the same time, it hampers the region’s agronomic development, which has not yet been fully exploited. The situation therefore demonstrates the need for practical improvement suggestions and implication measures, such as the systematic forestation of supplemental forage plant species in the coastal zone or a stronger integration of animal husbandry and crop production, to sustain the traditional livestock system without compromising peoples’ livelihoods while at the same time minimizing the pastoral impact on the area’s unique nature and environment.