Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Theoretical study of the structural dependence of nuclear quadrupole frequencies in high-T_c superconductors

The remarkable difference between the nuclear quadrupole frequencies v_Q of Cu(1) and Cu(2) in YBa_2Cu_3O_6 and YBa_2Cu_3O_7 is analyzed. We calculate the ionic contribution to the electric field gradients and estimate, by using experimental results for Cu_2O and La_2CuO_4, the contribution of the d valence electrons. Thus, we determine v_Q1, v_Q2, and the asymmetry parameter η for YBa_2Cu_3O_6 and YBa_2Cu_3O_7. The number of holes in dthe Cu-O planes and chains is found to be important for the different behavior of v_Q1 and v_Q2.

Theory for Optical Absorption in Small Clusters: Dependence on Atomic Structure and Cluster Size

We present a theory which permits for the first time a detailed analysis of the dependence of the absorption spectrum on atomic structure and cluster size. Thus, we determine the development of the collective excitations in small clusters and show that their broadening depends sensitively on the tomic structure, in particular at the surface. Results for Hg_n^+ clusters show that the plasmon energy is close to its jellium value in the case of spherical-like structures, but is in general between w_p/ \wurzel{3} and w_p/ \wurzel{2} for compact clusters. A particular success of our theory is the identification of the excitations contributing to the absorption peaks.

Prediction of the azimuth angle dependence of the quasimolecular anisotropy in heavy ion collisions

Within the quasimolecular (MO) kinematic dipole model we predict a strong dependence of the anisotropy of the MO radiation on the orientation of the heavy ion scattering plane relative to the direction of the photon detection plane.

Factors influencing a conversion to organic farming in Nepalese tea farms

Organic agriculture in developing countries has increased in past decades especially due to the high demand of organic products in developed countries. The rate of conversion to organic production in Nepal, however, is observed much slower than expected. This study investigates factors that determine the conversion to organic production using Nepalese tea producers as a case study. A survey of 181 farmers was conducted in the Ilam and Panchthar district of Nepal, among which 86 were organic farmers and 95 were conventional farmers. A discriminant analysis was used to identify socio-economic characteristics that distinguish conventional and organic farmers. Results from the estimated discriminant function suggest that farmers located in a distance from regional markets, older in age, better trained, affiliated with institutions and having larger farms are more likely to adopt organic production. Similarly, a factor analysis shows that environmental awareness, bright market prospects, observable economic benefit and health consciousness are the major factors influencing farmers’ decisions on the conversion to organic production. While planning programs for the development of the organic tea sector in Nepal, policy makers should consider the support of farmers’ institutions, provision of training to farmers and raise farmers’ awareness about the environmental, economic and health benefits of organic farming.

Effects of grassland conversion and tillage intensities on soil microbial biomass, residues and community structure

Agricultural intensification has a strong impact on level of soil organic matter (SOM), microbial biomass stocks and microbial community structure in agro-ecosystems. The size of the microbial necromass C pool could be about 40 times that of the living microbial biomass C pool in soils. Due to the specificity, amino sugar analysis gives more important information on the relative contribution of fungal and bacterial residues to C sequestration potential of soils. Meanwhile, the relationship between microbial biomass and microbial necromass in soil and its ecological significance on SOM are not fully understood and likely to be very complex in grassland soils. This thesis focuses on the effects of tillage, grassland conversion intensities and fertilisation on microbial biomass, residues and community structure. The combined analyses of microbial biomass and residue formation of both fungi and bacteria provided a unique opportunity to study the effect of tillage, grassland conversion and fertilisation on soil microbial dynamics. In top soil at 0-30 cm layer, a reduction in tillage intensity by the GRT and NT treatments increased the accumulation of saprotrophic fungi in comparison with the MBT treatment. In contrast, the GRT and NT treatments promoted AMF at the expense of saprotrophic fungi in the bottom soil layer at 30-40 cm depth. The negative relationship between the ergosterol to microbial biomass C ratio and the fungal C to bacterial C ratio points to the importance of the relationship between saprotrophic fungi and biotrophic AMF for tillage-induced changes in microbial turnover of SOC. One-season cultivation of winter wheat with two tillage events led to a significant loss in SOC and microbial biomass C stocks at 0-40 cm depth in comparison with the permanent grassland, even 5 years after the tillage event. However, the tillage induced loss in microbial biomass C was roughly 40% less in the long-term than in the short-term of the current experiment, indicating a recovery process during grassland restoration. In general, mould board tillage and grassland conversion to maize monoculture promoted saprotrophic fungi at the expense of biotrophic AMF and bacteria compared to undisturbed grassland soils. Slurry application promoted bacterial residues as indicated by the decreases in both, the ergosterol to microbial biomass C ratio and the fungal C to bacterial C ratio. In addition, the lost microbial functional diversity due to tillage and maize monoculture was restored by slurry application both in arable and grassland soils. I conclude that the microbial biomass C/S ratio can be used as an additional indicator for a shift in microbial community. The strong relationships between microbial biomass and necromass indices points to the importance of saprotrophic fungi and biotrophic AMF for agricultural management induced effects on microbial turnover and ecosystem C storage. Quantitative information on exact biomass estimates of these two important fungal groups in soil is inevitably necessary to understand their different roles in SOM dynamics.