Bayes quadratic unbiased estimator of spatial covariance parameters

This work presents Bayes invariant quadratic unbiased estimator, for short BAIQUE. Bayesian approach is used here to estimate the covariance functions of the regionalized variables which appear in the spatial covariance structure in mixed linear model. Firstly a brief review of spatial process, variance covariance components structure and Bayesian inference is given, since this project deals with these concepts. Then the linear equations model corresponding to BAIQUE in the general case is formulated. That Bayes estimator of variance components with too many unknown parameters is complicated to be solved analytically. Hence, in order to facilitate the handling with this system, BAIQUE of spatial covariance model with two parameters is considered. Bayesian estimation arises as a solution of a linear equations system which requires the linearity of the covariance functions in the parameters. Here the availability of prior information on the parameters is assumed. This information includes apriori distribution functions which enable to find the first and the second moments matrix. The Bayesian estimation suggested here depends only on the second moment of the prior distribution. The estimation appears as a quadratic form y'Ay , where y is the vector of filtered data observations. This quadratic estimator is used to estimate the linear function of unknown variance components. The matrix A of BAIQUE plays an important role. If such a symmetrical matrix exists, then Bayes risk becomes minimal and the unbiasedness conditions are fulfilled. Therefore, the symmetry of this matrix is elaborated in this work. Through dealing with the infinite series of matrices, a representation of the matrix A is obtained which shows the symmetry of A. In this context, the largest singular value of the decomposed matrix of the infinite series is considered to deal with the convergence condition and also it is connected with Gerschgorin Discs and Poincare theorem. Then the BAIQUE model for some experimental designs is computed and compared. The comparison deals with different aspects, such as the influence of the position of the design points in a fixed interval. The designs that are considered are those with their points distributed in the interval [0, 1]. These experimental structures are compared with respect to the Bayes risk and norms of the matrices corresponding to distances, covariance structures and matrices which have to satisfy the convergence condition. Also different types of the regression functions and distance measurements are handled. The influence of scaling on the design points is studied, moreover, the influence of the covariance structure on the best design is investigated and different covariance structures are considered. Finally, BAIQUE is applied for real data. The corresponding outcomes are compared with the results of other methods for the same data. Thereby, the special BAIQUE, which estimates the general variance of the data, achieves a very close result to the classical empirical variance.

Systematics and evolution of the genus Deuterocohnia Mez (Bromeliaceae)

The present study investigates the systematics and evolution of the Neotropical genus Deuterocohnia Mez (Bromeliaceae). It provides a comprehensive taxonomic revision as well as phylogenetic analyses based on chloroplast and nuclear DNA sequences and presents a hypothesis on the evolution of the genus. A broad morphological, anatomical, biogeographical and ecological overview of the genus is given in the first part of the study. For morphological character assessment more than 700 herbarium specimens from 39 herbaria as well as living plant material in the field and in the living collections of botanical gardens were carefully examined. The arid habitats, in which the species of Deuterocohnia grow, are reflected by the morphological and anatomical characters of the species. Important characters for species delimitation were identified, like the length of the inflorescence, the branching order, the density of flowers on partial inflorescences, the relation of the length of the primary bracts to that of the partial inflorescence, the sizes of floral bracts, sepals and petals, flower colour, the presence or absence of a pedicel, the curvature of the stamina and the petals during anthesis. After scrutinizing the nomenclatural history of the taxa belonging to Deuterocohnia – including the 1992 syonymized genus Abromeitiella – 17 species, 4 subspecies and 4 varieties are accepted in the present revision. Taxonomic changes were made in the following cases: (I) New combinations: A. abstrusa (A. Cast.) N. Schütz is re-established – as defined by Castellanos (1931) – and transfered to D. abstrusa; D. brevifolia (Griseb.) M.A. Spencer & L.B. Sm. includes accessions of the former D. lorentziana (Mez) M.A. Spencer & L.B. Sm., which are not assigned to D. abstrusa; D. bracteosa W. Till is synonymized to D. strobilifera Mez; D. meziana Kuntze ex Mez var. carmineo-viridiflora Rauh is classified as a subspecies of D. meziana (ssp. carmineo-viridiflora (Rauh) N. Schütz); D. pedicellata W. Till is classified as a subspecies of D. meziana (ssp. pedicellata (W. Till) N. Schütz); D. scapigera (Rauh & L. Hrom.) M.A. Spencer & L.B. Sm ssp. sanctae-crucis R. Vásquez & Ibisch is classified as a species (D. sanctae-crucis (R. Vásquez & Ibisch) N. Schütz); (II) New taxa: a new subspecies of D. meziana Kuntze ex Mez is established; a new variety of D. scapigera is established; (the new taxa will be validly published elsewhere); (III) New type: an epitype for D. longipetala was chosen. All other species were kept according to Spencer and Smith (1992) or – in the case of more recently described species – according to the protologue. Beside the nomenclatural notes and the detailed descriptions, information on distribution, habitat and ecology, etymology and taxonomic delimitation is provided for the genus and for each of its species. An key was constructed for the identification of currently accepted species, subspecies and varieties. The key is based on easily detectable morphological characters. The former synonymization of the genus Abromeitiella into Deuterocohnia (Spencer and Smith 1992) is re-evalutated in the present study. Morphological as well as molecular investigations revealed Deuterocohnia incl. Abromeitiella as being monophyletic, with some indications that a monophyletic Abromeitiella lineage arose from within Deuterocohnia. Thus the union of both genera is confirmed. The second part of the present thesis describes and discusses the molecular phylogenies and networks. Molecular analyses of three chloroplast intergenic spacers (rpl32-trnL, rps16-trnK, trnS-ycf3) were conducted with a sample set of 119 taxa. This set included 103 Deuterocohnia accessions from all 17 described species of the genus and 16 outgroup taxa from the remainder of Pitcairnioideae s.str. (Dyckia (8 sp.), Encholirium (2 sp.), Fosterella (4 sp.) and Pitcairnia (2 sp.)). With its high sampling density, the present investigation by far represents the most comprehensive molecular study of Deuterocohnia up till now. All data sets were analyzed separately as well as in combination, and various optimality criteria for phylogenetic tree construction were applied (Maximum Parsimony, Maximum Likelihood, Bayesian inferences and the distance method Neighbour Joining). Congruent topologies were generally obtained with different algorithms and optimality criteria, but individual clades received different degrees of statistical support in some analyses. The rps16-trnK locus was the most informative among the three spacer regions examined. The results of the chloroplast DNA analyses revealed a highly supported paraphyly of Deuterocohnia. Thus, the cpDNA trees divide the genus into two subclades (A and B), of which Deuterocohnia subclade B is sister to the included Dyckia and Encholirium accessions, and both together are sister to Deuterocohnia subclade A. To further examine the relationship between Deuterocohnia and Dyckia/Encholirium at the generic level, two nuclear low copy markers (PRK exon2-5 and PHYC exon1) were analysed with a reduced taxon set. This set included 22 Deuterocohnia accessions (including members of both cpDNA subclades), 2 Dyckia, 2 Encholirium and 2 Fosterella species. Phylogenetic trees were constructed as described above, and for comparison the same reduced taxon set was also analysed at the three cpDNA data loci. In contrast to the cpDNA results, the nuclear DNA data strongly supported the monophyly of Deuterocohnia, which takes a sister position to a clade of Dyckia and Encholirium samples. As morphology as well as nuclear DNA data generated in the present study and in a former AFLP analysis (Horres 2003) all corroborate the monophyly of Deuterocohnia, the apparent paraphyly displayed in cpDNA analyses is interpreted to be the consequence of a chloroplast capture event. This involves the introgression of the chloroplast genome from the common ancestor of the Dyckia/ Encholirium lineage into the ancestor of Deuterocohnia subclade B species. The chloroplast haplotypes are not species-specific in Deuterocohnia. Thus, one haplotype was sometimes shared by several species, where the same species may harbour different haplotypes. The arrangement of haplotypes followed geographical patterns rather than taxonomic boundaries, which may indicate some residual gene flow among populations from different Deuteroccohnia species. Phenotypic species coherence on the background of ongoing gene flow may then be maintained by sets of co-adapted alleles, as was suggested by the porous genome concept (Wu 2001, Palma-Silva et al. 2011). The results of the present study suggest the following scenario for the evolution of Deuterocohnia and its species. Deuterocohnia longipetala may be envisaged as a representative of the ancestral state within the genus. This is supported by (1) the wide distribution of this species; (2) the overlap in distribution area with species of Dyckia; (3) the laxly flowered inflorescences, which are also typical for Dyckia; (4) the yellow petals with a greenish tip, present in most other Deuterocohnia species. The following six extant lineages within Deuterocohnia might have independently been derived from this ancestral state with a few changes each: (I) D. meziana, D. brevispicata and D. seramisiana (Bolivia, lowland to montane areas, mostly reddish-greenish coloured, very laxly to very densely flowered); (II) D. strobilifera (Bolivia, high Andean mountains, yellow flowers, densely flowered); (III) D. glandulosa (Bolivia, montane areas, yellow-greenish flowers, densely flowered); (IV) D. haumanii, D. schreiteri, D. digitata, and D. chrysantha (Argentina, Chile, E Andean mountains and Atacama desert, yellow-greenish flowers, densely flowered); (V) D. recurvipetala (Argentina, foothills of the Andes, recurved yellow flowers, laxly flowered); (VI) D. gableana, D. scapigera, D. sanctae-crucis, D. abstrusa, D. brevifolia, D. lotteae (former Abromeitiella species, Bolivia, Argentina, higher Andean mountains, greenish-yellow flowers, inflorescence usually simple). Originating from the lower montane Andean regions, at least four lineages of the genus (I, II, IV, VI) adapted in part to higher altitudes by developing densely flowered partial inflorescences, shorter flowers and – in at least three lineages (II, IV, VI) – smaller rosettes, whereas species spreading into the lowlands (I, V) developed larger plants, laxly flowered, amply branched inflorescences and in part larger flowers (I).

Alley cropping of willows and grassland for bioenergy provision: productivity, tree-crop interactions and energy balance

The demand for biomass for bioenergy has increased rapidly in industrialized countries in the recent years. Biogenic energy carriers are known to reduce CO2 emissions. However, the resource-inefficient production of biomass often caused negative impacts on the environment, e.g. biodiversity losses, nitrate leaching, and erosion. The detrimental effects evolved mainly from annual crops. Therefore, the aim of modern bioenergy cropping systems is to combine yield stability and environmental benefits by the establishment of mixed-cropping systems. A particular emphasis is on perennial crops which are perceived as environmentally superior to annual crops. Agroforestry systems represent such mixed perennial cropping systems and consist of a mix of trees and arable crops or grassland within the same area of land. Agroforestry practices vary across the globe and alley cropping is a type of agroforestry system which is well adapted to the temperate zone, with a high degree of mechanization. Trees are planted in rows and crops are planted in the alleyways, which facilitates their management by machinery. This study was conducted to examine a young alley cropping system of willows and two grassland mixtures for bioenergy provision under temperate climate conditions. The first part of the thesis identified possible competition effects between willows and the two grassland mixtures. Since light seemed to be the factor most affecting the yield performance of the understory in temperate agroforestry systems, a biennial in situ artificial shade experiment was established over a separate clover-grass stand to quantify the effects of shade. Data to possible below- and aboveground interactions among willows and the two grassland mixtures and their effects on productivity, sward composition, and quality were monitored along a tree-grassland interface within the alleys. In the second part, productivity of the alley cropping system was examined on a triennial time frame and compared to separate grassland and willow stands as controls. Three different conversion technologies (combustion of hay, integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass, whole crop digestion) were applied to grassland biomass as feedstock and analyzed for its energetic potential. The energetic potential of willow wood chips was calculated by applying combustion as conversion technique. Net energy balances of separate grassland stands, agroforestry and pure willow stands evaluated their energy efficiency. Results of the biennial artificial shade experiment showed that severe shade (80 % light reduction) halved grassland productivity on average compared to a non-shaded control. White clover as heliophilous plant responded sensitively to limited radiation and its dry matter contribution in the sward decreased with increasing shade, whereas non-leguminous forbs (mainly segetal species) benefited. Changes in nutritive quality could not be confirmed by this experiment. Through the study on interactions within the alleys of the young agroforestry system it was possible to outline changes of incident light, soil temperature and sward composition of clover-grass along the tree-grassland interface. Nearly no effects of trees on precipitation, soil moisture and understory productivity occurred along the interface during the biennial experiment. Considering the results of the productivity and the net energy yield alley cropping system had lower than pure grassland stands, irrespective of the grassland seed mixture or fertilization, but was higher than that for pure willow stands. The comparison of three different energetic conversion techniques for the grassland biomass showed highest net energy yields for hay combustion, whereas the integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass (IFBB) and whole crop digestion performed similarly. However, due to the low fuel quality of hay, its direct combustion cannot be recommended as a viable conversion technique, whereas IFBB fuels were of a similar quality to wood chip from willow.

On Solution Sets of Information Inequalities

We investigate solution sets of a special kind of linear inequality systems. In particular, we derive characterizations of these sets in terms of minimal solution sets. The studied inequalities emerge as information inequalities in the context of Bayesian networks. This allows to deduce important properties of Bayesian networks, which is important within causal inference.

Vegetation changes in a river oasis on the southern rim of the Taklamakan Desert in China between 1956 and 2000

The indigenous vegetation surrounding the river oases on the southern rim of the Taklamakan Desert has drastically diminished due to overexploitation as a source of fodder, timber and fuel for the human population. The change in the spatial extent of landscape forms and vegetation types around the Qira oasis was analyzed by comparing SPOT satellite images from 1998 with aerial photographs from 1956. The analysis was supplemented by field surveys in 1999 and 2000. The study is part of a joint Chinese-European project with the aim of assessing the current state of the foreland vegetation, of gathering information on the regeneration potential and of suggesting procedures for a sustainable management. With 33 mm of annual precipitation, plants can only grow if they have access to groundwater, lakes or rivers. Most of the available water comes into the desert via rivers in the form of seasonal flooding events resulting from snow melt in the Kun Lun Mountains. This water is captured in canal systems and used for irrigation of arable fields. Among the eight herbaceous and woody vegetation types and the type of open sand without any plant life that were mapped in 2000 in the oasis foreland, only the latter, the oasis border between cultivated land and open Populus euphratica forests and Tamarix ramosissima-Phragmites australis riverbed vegetation could be clearly identified on the photographs from 1956. The comparison of the images revealed that the oasis increased in area between 1956 and 2000. Shifting sand was successfully combated near to the oasis borders but increased in extent at the outward border of the foreland vegetation. In contrast to expectations, the area covered with Populus trees was smaller in 1956 than today due to some new forests in the north of the oasis that have grown up since 1977. Subfossil wood and leaf remnants of Populus euphratica that were found in many places in the foreland must have originated from forests destroyed before 1956. In the last 50 years, the main Qira River has shifted its bed significantly northward and developed a new furcation with a large new bed in 1986. The natural river dynamics are not only an important factor in forming the oasis’ landscape but also in providing the only possible regeneration sites for all occurring plant species. The conclusion of the study is that the oasis landscape has changed considerably in the last 50 years due to natural floodings and to vegetation degradation by human overexploitation. The trend towards decreasing width of the indigenous vegetation belt resulting from the advancing desert and the expansion of arable land is particularly alarming because a decrease in its protective function against shifting sand can be expected in the future.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Effects of transformation processes in 'jubraka' agroforestry systems of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, on plant diversity

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

Effects of changing water availability on land use in irrigated mountain oases of Al Jabal Al Akhdar, northern Oman

In Oman, during the last three decades, agricultural water use and groundwater extraction has dramatically increased to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population and major changes in lifestyle. This has triggered agricultural land-use changes which have been poorly investigated. In view of this our study aimed at analysing patterns of shortterm land-use changes (2007-2009) in the five irrigated mountain oases of Ash Sharayjah, Al’Ayn, Al’Aqr, Qasha’ and Masayrat ar Ruwajah situated in the northern Oman Hajar mountains of Al Jabal Al Akhdar where competitive uses of irrigation water are particularly apparent. Comprehensive GIS-based field surveys were conducted over three years to record changes in terrace use in these five oases where farmers have traditionally adapted to rain-derived variations of irrigation water supply, e.g. by leaving agricultural terraces of annual crops uncultivated in drought years. Results show that the area occupied with field crops decreased in the dry years of 2008 and 2009 for all oases. In Ash Sharayjah, terrace areas grown with field crops declined from 4.7 ha (32.4 % of total terrace area) in 2007 to 3.1 ha (21.6 %) in 2008 and 3.0 ha (20.5 %) in 2009. Similarly, the area proportion of field crops shrunk in Al’Ayn, Qasha’ and Masayrat from 35.2, 36.3 and 49.6 % in 2007 to 19.8, 8.5 and 41.3 % in 2009, respectively. In Al’Aqr, the area of field crops slightly increased from 0.3 ha (17.0 %) in 2007 to 0.7 (39.1 %) in 2008, and decreased to 0.5 ha (28.8 %) in 2009. During the same period annual dry matter yields of the cash crop garlic in Ash Sharayjah increased from 16.3 t ha-1 in 2007 to 19.8 t ha-1 in 2008 and 18.3 t ha-1 in 2009, while the same crop yielded only 0.4, 1.6 and 1.1 t ha-1 in Masayrat. In 2009, the total estimated agricultural area of the new town of Sayh Qatanah above the five oases was around 13.5 ha. Our results suggest that scarcity of irrigation water as a result of low precipitation and increased irrigation and home water consumption in the new urban settlements above the five oases have led to major shifts in the land-use pattern and increasingly threaten the centuries-long tradition and drought-resilience of agriculture in the oases of the studied watershed.

Poverty targeting and income impact of subsidised credit on accessed households in the Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam

This paper uses the data of 1338 rural households in the Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam to examine the extent to which subsidised credit targets the poor and its impacts. Principal Component Analysis and Propensity Score Matching were used to evaluate the depth of outreach and the income impact of credit. To address the problem of model uncertainty, the approach of Bayesian Model Average applied to the probit model was used. Results showed that subsidised credit successfully targeted the poor households with 24.10% and 69.20% of clients falling into the poorest group and the three bottom groups respectively. Moreover, those who received subsidised credit make up 83% of ethnic minority households. These results indicate that governmental subsidies are necessary to reach the poor and low income households, who need capital but are normally bypassed by commercial banks. Analyses also showed that ethnicity and age of household heads, number of helpers, savings, as well as how affected households are by shocks were all factors that further explained the probability at which subsidised credit has been assessed. Furthermore, recipients obtained a 2.61% higher total income and a 5.93% higher farm income compared to non-recipients. However, these small magnitudes of effects are statistically insignificant at a 5% level. Although the subsidised credit is insufficient to significantly improve the income of the poor households, it possibly prevents these households of becoming even poorer.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.