Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Short-term poverty dynamics of rural households: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

The understanding of poverty dynamics is crucial for the design of appropriate poverty reduction strategies. Taking the case of Central Sulawesi, we investigate the determinants of both chronic and transitory poverty using data from 264 randomly selected households interviewed in 2005 and 2007. Regarding the US 1$/day poverty line, the headcount index declined from 19.3% in 2005 to 18.2% in 2007. However, we observed an increasing number of people living on less than US 2$/day expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP). The results of the estimated multinomial logit model applied in this study indicate that a lack of non-agricultural employment opportunities and low endowment of social capital are major determinants of chronic as well as transitory poverty in this province of Indonesia. These results are used to draw policy conclusions with respect to the alleviation of transitory and chronic poverty in Central Sulawesi.

Economic evaluation of proposed pure and mixed stands in Central Vietnam highlands

In comparison with mixed forest stands, the cultivation of pure plantations in Vietnam entails serious ecological consequences such as loss of biodiversity and higher rate of soil erosion. The economic evaluation is elaborated between pure plantations and mixed forests where the fast-growing tree species are mixed with slow growing tree species which are planted in stripes separating the segments with fast-growing tree species (Acacia sp.). For the evaluation, the input values were used from local costs of goods, services and labour. The results show that the internal rate of return is the highest in the case of pure plantation in comparison with mixed forests – 86% to 77%(first planting pattern: Acacia sp. + noble hardwood species) and 54% (second planting pattern: Acacia + Dipterocarpus sp. + Sindora sp.). The average profit per hectare and year is almost five times higher in the case of mixed stands. The first planting pattern reaches 2,650 $, the second planting pattern 2,280 $ and the pure acacia plantation only 460 $. From an economic point of view, the cultivation of mixed forests that corresponds to the principles of sustainable forestry generates a good economical profit while maintaining habitat complexity and biodiversity.

Influence of education levels on dissemination of soil fertility management information in the central highlands of Kenya

Inadequate links between researchers and farmers has resulted in low uptake of research advances recommended to improve food security in the central highlands of Kenya. Access to timely and accurate information by extension agents and farmers is paramount in dissemination of soil fertility management practices. Hence, the study sought to investigate the effect of education levels on communication channels used to disseminate soil fertility technologies in the Central highlands of Kenya. Questionnaires were used to elicit information from 105 extension agents and 240 farmers. About 50.5% of the extension officers were certificate holders while 29.5% were diploma holders from agricultural institutes. Majority of the farmers had attained primary education (59.6%) while 25.8% and 9.2% had attained secondary and post secondary education, respectively. Research institutions were the most accessible sources of information on soil fertility management practices by extension agents while internet and scientific conferences were the least scored as accessible sources of soil fertility management information by extension agents. Education levels significantly influenced preference of individual approach methods by farmers. There was a significant positive relationship between education and accessibility of internet as a source of information on green manure. The implication of the study was that education levels influenced the mode of communication used in the transfer of soil fertility research outputs to the end users. Consequently, it is extremely important to consider education levels in selection of dissemination pathways used in agriculture.

An integrated assessment of resource use strategies in the Borana pastoral system of southern Ethiopia

In the pastoral production systems, mobility remains the main technique used to meet livestock’s fodder requirements. Currently, with growing challenges on the pastoral production systems, there is urgent need for an in-depth understanding of how pastoralists continue to manage their grazing resources and how they determine their mobility strategies. This study examined the Borana pastoralists’ regulation of access to grazing resources, mobility practices and cattle reproductive performances in three pastoral zones of Borana region of southern Ethiopia. The central objective of the study was to contribute to the understanding of pastoral land use strategies at a scale relevant to their management. The study applied a multi-scalar methodological approach that allowed zooming in from communal to individual herd level. Through participatory mapping that applied Google Earth image print out as visual aid, the study revealed that the Borana pastoralists conceptualized their grazing areas as distinctive grazing units with names, borders, and specific characteristics. This knowledge enables the herders to communicate the condition of grazing resources among themselves in a precise way which is important in management of livestock mobility. Analysis of grazing area use from the participatory maps showed that the Borana pastoralists apportion their grazing areas into categories that are accessed at different times of the year (temporal use areas). This re-organization is an attempt by the community to cope with the prevailing constraints which results in fodder shortages especially during the dry periods. The re-organization represents a shift in resource use system, as the previous mobility practice across the ecologically varied zones of the rangelands became severely restricted. Grazing itineraries of 91 cattle herds for over 16 months obtained using the seasonal calendar interviews indicated that in the areas with the severest mobility constraints, the herders spent most of their time in the year round use areas that are within close proximity to the settlements. A significant change in mobility strategy was the disallowing of foora practice by the communities in Dirre and Malbe zones in order to reduce competition. With the reduction in mobility practices, there is a general decline in cattle reproductive parameters with the areas experiencing the severest constraints showing the least favourable reproductive performances. The study concludes that the multi-scalar methodology was well suited to zoom into pastoral grazing management practices from communal to individual herd levels. Also the loss of mobility in the Borana pastoral system affects fulfilment of livestock feed requirements thus resulting in reduced reproductive performances and herd growth potentials. While reversal of the conditions of the situations in the Borana rangelands is practically unfeasible, the findings from this research underscore the need to protect the remaining pastoral lands since the pastoral production system remains the most important livelihood option for the majority of the Borana people. In this regards the study emphasises the need to adopt and domesticate regional and international policy frameworks such as that proposed by the African Union in 2010.

Perception of quality in certified organic pineapples by farmers in Kayunga district, Central Uganda: Implications for food security

In East Africa, Uganda is one of the major producers of organic pineapples for export. These pineapples are mainly produced in central Uganda and have to meet stringent quality standards before they can be allowed on international markets. These quality standards may put considerable strain on farmers and may not be wholly representative of their quality interpretation. The aim of this paper is therefore, to determine the Ugandan organic pineapple farmers’ quality perception, the activities they carry out in order to attain that quality and challenges (production, postharvest & marketing) faced on the same. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were carried out among 28 organic pineapple farmers in Kayunga district, central Uganda. Findings suggest that quality of organic pineapples is mainly perceived in terms of product attributes particularly appearance followed by food security provision. Certification plays a minor role in what farmers describe as organic quality. High production input costs (labour and coffee husks) coupled with a stagnant premium are some of the major challenges faced by farmers in attaining organic quality. The paper argues that currently there are concealed negative food security effects embroiled in these pineapple schemes. It is recommended that the National Organic Agricultural Movement of Uganda (NOGAMU) works with all relevant stakeholders to have the farmer premium price raised and an official organic policy enacted.

Climate change adaptation strategies of maize producers of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The impacts of climate change are considered to be strong in countries located in tropical Africa that depend on agriculture for their food, income and livelihood. Therefore, a better understanding of the local dimensions of adaptation strategies is essential to develop appropriate measures that will mitigate adverse consequences. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the most commonly used adaptation strategies that farm households practice among a set of options to withstand the effects of climate change and to identify factors that affect the choice of climate change adaptation strategies in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. To address this objective, Multivariate Probit model was used. The results of the model indicated that the likelihood of households to adapt improved varieties of crops, adjust planting date, crop diversification and soil conservation practices were 58.73%, 57.72%, 35.61% and 41.15%, respectively. The Simulated Maximum Likelihood estimation of the Multivariate Probit model results suggested that there was positive and significant interdependence between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and using improved varieties of crops; and between adjusting planting date and using improved varieties of crops. The results also showed that there was a negative and significant relationship between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and soil conservation practices. The paper also recommended household, socioeconomic, institutional and plot characteristics that facilitate and impede the probability of choosing those adaptation strategies.

Use of farmer-prioritized vertisol management options for enhanced green gram and tomato production in central Kenya

Green grams (Phaseolus aures L.) and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L) are widely grown in the vertisols of the Mwea Irrigation Scheme alongside the rice fields. Green grams can fix nitrogen (biological nitrogen fixation) and are grown for its highly nutritious and curative seeds while tomatoes are grown for its fruit rich in fibres, minerals and vitamins. The two can be prepared separately or together in a variety of ways including raw salads and/or cooked/fried. They together form significant delicacies consumed with rice which is the major cash crop grown in the black cotton soils. The crops can grow well in warm conditions but tomato is fairly adaptable except under excessive humidity and temperatures that reduce yields. Socio-economic prioritization by the farming community and on-farm demonstrations of soil management options were instituted to demonstrate enhanced green gram and tomato production in vertisol soils of lower parts of Kirinyaga County (Mwea East and Mwea West districts). Drainage management was recognized by the farming community as the best option although a reduced number of farmers used drainage and furrows/ridges, manure, fertilizer and shifting options with reducing order of importance. Unavailability of labour and/or financial cost for instituting these management options were indicated as major hindrances to adopt the yield enhancing options. Labour force was contributed to mainly by the family alongside hiring (64.2%) although 28% and 5.2% respectively used hired or family labour alone. The female role in farming activities dominated while the male role was minimal especially at weeding. The youth role remained excessively insignificant and altogether absent at marketing. Despite the need for labour at earlier activities (especially when management options needed to be instituted) it was at the marketing stage that this force was directed. Soils were considered infertile by 60% but 40% indicated that their farms had adequate fertility. Analysis showed that ridging and application of farm yard manure and fertilizer improved fertility, crop growth and income considerably. Phosphate and zinc enhancement reduced alkalinity and sodicity. Green gram and tomato yields increased under ridges and farm yard manure application by 17-25% which significantly enhanced household income.