Hedge-Fonds und Finanzmarktinstabilität

In der Arbeit wird ein Ansatz für die destabilisierende Wirkung von adaptiven Hedge-Fonds Aktivitäten diskutiert und mit einer konkreten Implementation für den USD-JPY Carry Trade illustriert. Die sich dabei entwickelnde Marktdynamik wird systemtheoretisch durch den Prozess einer kollektiven Selbstorganisation erklärt. Die Neuerung des vorgestellten Ansatzes liegt darin, dass durch die Kombination von Fallstudien-/Simulations- und systemtheoretischer Methodik ein besserer Zugang zur Erklärung der Entstehung exzessiver Preisentwicklungen in Währungsmärkten gefunden werden konnte, als bisher mit traditionellen Ansätzen möglich war. In der Dissertation wird gezeigt, dass Hedge-Fonds nicht die alleinige Schuld für das Entstehen von Finanzmarktinstabilitäten trifft.

Digital image analysis as a tool to estimate legume contributions in legume-grass swards

Summary: Productivity and forage quality of legume-grass swards are important factors for successful arable farming in both organic and conventional farming systems. For these objectives the botanical composition of the swards is of particular importance, especially, the content of legumes due to their ability to fix airborne nitrogen. As it can vary considerably within a field, a non-destructive detection method while doing other tasks would facilitate a more targeted sward management and could predict the nitrogen supply of the soil for the subsequent crop. This study was undertaken to explore the potential of digital image analysis (DIA) for a non destructive prediction of legume dry matter (DM) contribution of legume-grass mixtures. For this purpose an experiment was conducted in a greenhouse, comprising a sample size of 64 experimental swards such as pure swards of red clover (Trifolium pratense L.), white clover (Trifolium repens L.) and lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) as well as binary mixtures of each legume with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.). Growth stages ranged from tillering to heading and the proportion of legumes from 0 to 80 %. Based on digital sward images three steps were considered in order to estimate the legume contribution (% of DM): i) The development of a digital image analysis (DIA) procedure in order to estimate legume coverage (% of area). ii) The description of the relationship between legume coverage (% area) and legume contribution (% of DM) derived from digital analysis of legume coverage related to the green area in a digital image. iii) The estimation of the legume DM contribution with the findings of i) and ii). i) In order to evaluate the most suitable approach for the estimation of legume coverage by means of DIA different tools were tested. Morphological operators such as erode and dilate support the differentiation of objects of different shape by shrinking and dilating objects (Soille, 1999). When applied to digital images of legume-grass mixtures thin grass leaves were removed whereas rounder clover leaves were left. After this process legume leaves were identified by threshold segmentation. The segmentation of greyscale images turned out to be not applicable since the segmentation between legumes and bare soil failed. The advanced procedure comprising morphological operators and HSL colour information could determine bare soil areas in young and open swards very accurately. Also legume specific HSL thresholds allowed for precise estimations of legume coverage across a wide range from 11.8 - 72.4 %. Based on this legume specific DIA procedure estimated legume coverage showed good correlations with the measured values across the whole range of sward ages (R2 0.96, SE 4.7 %). A wide range of form parameters (i.e. size, breadth, rectangularity, and circularity of areas) was tested across all sward types, but none did improve prediction accuracy of legume coverage significantly. ii) Using measured reference data of legume coverage and contribution, in a first approach a common relationship based on all three legumes and sward ages of 35, 49 and 63 days was found with R2 0.90. This relationship was improved by a legume-specific approach of only 49- and 63-d old swards (R2 0.94, 0.96 and 0.97 for red clover, white clover, and lucerne, respectively) since differing structural attributes of the legume species influence the relationship between these two parameters. In a second approach biomass was included in the model in order to allow for different structures of swards of different ages. Hence, a model was developed, providing a close look on the relationship between legume coverage in binary legume-ryegrass communities and the legume contribution: At the same level of legume coverage, legume contribution decreased with increased total biomass. This phenomenon may be caused by more non-leguminous biomass covered by legume leaves at high levels of total biomass. Additionally, values of legume contribution and coverage were transformed to the logit-scale in order to avoid problems with heteroscedasticity and negative predictions. The resulting relationships between the measured legume contribution and the calculated legume contribution indicated a high model accuracy for all legume species (R2 0.93, 0.97, 0.98 with SE 4.81, 3.22, 3.07 % of DM for red clover, white clover, and lucerne swards, respectively). The validation of the model by using digital images collected over field grown swards with biomass ranges considering the scope of the model shows, that the model is able to predict legume contribution for most common legume-grass swards (Frame, 1992; Ledgard and Steele, 1992; Loges, 1998). iii) An advanced procedure for the determination of legume DM contribution by DIA is suggested, which comprises the inclusion of morphological operators and HSL colour information in the analysis of images and which applies an advanced function to predict legume DM contribution from legume coverage by considering total sward biomass. Low residuals between measured and calculated values of legume dry matter contribution were found for the separate legume species (R2 0.90, 0.94, 0.93 with SE 5.89, 4.31, 5.52 % of DM for red clover, white clover, and lucerne swards, respectively). The introduced DIA procedure provides a rapid and precise estimation of legume DM contribution for different legume species across a wide range of sward ages. Further research is needed in order to adapt the procedure to field scale, dealing with differing light effects and potentially higher swards. The integration of total biomass into the model for determining legume contribution does not necessarily reduce its applicability in practice as a combined estimation of total biomass and legume coverage by field spectroscopy (Biewer et al. 2009) and DIA, respectively, may allow for an accurate prediction of the legume contribution in legume-grass mixtures.

Determination of yield and quality parameters of energy crops applying laboratory and field spectroscopy

A real-time analysis of renewable energy sources, such as arable crops, is of great importance with regard to an optimised process management, since aspects of ecology and biodiversity are considered in crop production in order to provide a sustainable energy supply by biomass. This study was undertaken to explore the potential of spectroscopic measurement procedures for the prediction of potassium (K), chloride (Cl), and phosphate (P), of dry matter (DM) yield, metabolisable energy (ME), ash and crude fibre contents (ash, CF), crude lipid (EE), nitrate free extracts (NfE) as well as of crude protein (CP) and nitrogen (N), respectively in pretreated samples and undisturbed crops. Three experiments were conducted, one in a laboratory using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and two field spectroscopic experiments. Laboratory NIRS measurements were conducted to evaluate to what extent a prediction of quality parameters is possible examining press cakes characterised by a wide heterogeneity of their parent material. 210 samples were analysed subsequent to a mechanical dehydration using a screw press. Press cakes serve as solid fuel for thermal conversion. Field spectroscopic measurements were carried out with regard to further technical development using different field grown crops. A one year lasting experiment over a binary mixture of grass and red clover examined the impact of different degrees of sky cover on prediction accuracies of distinct plant parameters. Furthermore, an artificial light source was used in order to evaluate to what extent such a light source is able to minimise cloud effects on prediction accuracies. A three years lasting experiment with maize was conducted in order to evaluate the potential of off-nadir measurements inside a canopy to predict different quality parameters in total biomass and DM yield using one sensor for a potential on-the-go application. This approach implements a measurement of the plants in 50 cm segments, since a sensor adjusted sideways is not able to record the entire plant height. Calibration results obtained by nadir top-of-canopy reflectance measurements were compared to calibration results obtained by off-nadir measurements. Results of all experiments approve the applicability of spectroscopic measurements for the prediction of distinct biophysical and biochemical parameters in the laboratory and under field conditions, respectively. The estimation of parameters could be conducted to a great extent with high accuracy. An enhanced basis of calibration for the laboratory study and the first field experiment (grass/clover-mixture) yields in improved robustness of calibration models and allows for an extended application of spectroscopic measurement techniques, even under varying conditions. Furthermore, off-nadir measurements inside a canopy yield in higher prediction accuracies, particularly for crops characterised by distinct height increment as observed for maize.

HelF und sein Interaktionspartner Xrn1: zwei Regulatoren der RNA-Interferenz in D. discoideum

Hauptziel dieser Arbeit ist die Identifizierung, Verifizierung und Charakterisierung von Interaktionspartnern von HelF, einem Negativregulator der RNA-Interferenz in Dictyostelium discoideum (Popova et al. 2006). Es ist gelungen, die Interaktion von HelF und der 5‘ 3‘ Exonuklease Xrn1 nachzu-weisen, aber alle anderen Versuchen, bisher unbekannte Protein-Interaktionspartner zu identifizieren, schlugen fehl. Xrn1 ist in den Organismen D. melanogaster (Orban und Izaurralde 2005), C. elegans (Newbury und Woollard 2004) und A. thaliana (Gazzani et al. 2004) bereits als Regulator der RNA-Interferenz bekannt. Mit Aufreinigungen nach der TAP-Methode und mit dem Nanotrap wurde ebenfalls versucht, RNA-Interaktionspartner von HelF zu identifizieren. Es konnten in einigen Aufreinigungen putative, für HelF spezifische RNAs identifiziert werden, doch entweder es handelte sich nachweislich nicht um RNA oder die Reproduktion der Daten schlug trotz mehrfacher Versuche fehl. Bezüglich der zellulären Lokalisation von HelF und Xrn1 konnte gezeigt werden, dass HelF zusätzlich zur bekannten Lokalisation in Foci im Nukleus (Popova et al. 2006) vermutlich auch im Cytoplasma und dort angeordnet in mehreren Granula zu finden ist. Xrn1 ist nahezu ausschließlich im Cytoplasma lokalisiert, wo es in mehreren Foci organisiert ist. Es wird vermutet, dass es sich bei diesen Foci um Processing-Bodies (P-Bodies) handelt und dass möglicherweise Xrn1 und HelF in eben diesen P-Bodies co-lokalisieren. In der Entwicklung vom Einzeller zum mehrzelligen Organismus zeigen die Xrn1KO- und die HelFKO-Mutante jeweils einen eindeutigen Phänotyp, der vom Wildtyp abweicht. Die Phänotypen der beiden Mutanten unterscheiden sich deutlich voneinander. Beim Mischen von HelF-Knockout-Zellen mit grün fluoreszierenden Wildtyp-Zellen zeigt sich, dass beide Stämme innerhalb des sich entwickelnden Organismus an definierten Stellen lokalisieren. Entgegen den Erwartungen befinden sich die Zellen der Mutante in den Stadien „Finger“ und „Slug“ nicht hauptsächlich im vorderen Teil des Organismus, sondern sind auch im hinteren Teil, der später die Sporenmasse bildet, vertreten. Dies lässt vermuten, dass HelF-Knockout-Mutanten in gleichem Maße wie Wildtypzellen als Sporen in die nächste Generation übergehen. Weitere Mix-Experimente, in denen HelFKO-Zellen und Xrn1KO-Zellen mit grün fluoreszierenden Wildtypzellen gemischt wurden, belegen eindeutig, dass beide Knockoutmutanten in Konkurrenz zum Wildtyp bei der Generierung von Sporen und somit beim Übergang in die nächste Generation benachteiligt sind. Dies steht im Gegensatz zu den Ergebnissen der vorher beschriebenen Mix-Experimente, in denen der Organismus als Ganzes betrachtet wurde. Weiterhin konnte herausgefunden werden, dass Xrn1 ebenso wie HelF (Popova et al. 2006) eine Rolle als Negativregulator in der RNA-Interferenz innehat. Fraglich ist aber, ob HelF wie bisher angenommen auch Einfluss auf den Weg der Generierung von miRNAs nimmt, da in HelFKO für keinen der beiden miRNA-Kandidaten eine Hoch- bzw. Runterregulierung der reifen miRNAs im Vergleich zum Wildtyp beobachtet werden kann. Im Xrn1KO hingegen ist die reife miRNA ddi-mir-1176 im Vergleich zum Wildtyp hochreguliert. In Bezug auf die Generierung von siRNAs konnte herausgefunden werden, dass Xrn1 und HelF im Fall der Generierung von Skipper siRNAs regulierend eingreifen, dass aber nicht alle siRNAs von der negativen Regulierung durch HelF und Xrn1betroffen sind, was am Beispiel der DIRS-1-siRNAs belegt werden kann. Das von B. Popova entwickelte Modell (Popova 2005) bezüglich der Rolle von HelF in der RNA-Interferenz wurde basierend auf den neu gewonnenen Daten weiterentwickelt und um Xrn1 ergänzt, um die Funktionen von HelF und Xrn1 als Antagonisten der RNA-Interferenz näher zu beleuchten. Literatur: Gazzani, S., T. Lawrenson, et al. (2004). "A link between mRNA turnover and RNA interference in Arabidopsis." Science 306(5698): 1046-8. Newbury, S. and A. Woollard (2004). "The 5'-3' exoribonuclease xrn-1 is essential for ventral epithelial enclosure during C. elegans embryogenesis." Rna 10(1): 59-65. Orban, T. I. and E. Izaurralde (2005). "Decay of mRNAs targeted by RISC requires XRN1, the Ski complex, and the exosome." Rna 11(4): 459-69. Popova, B. (2005). HelF, a suppressor of RNAi mediated gene silencing in Dictyostelium discoideum. Genetik. Kassel, Universität Kassel. PhD: 200. Popova, B., M. Kuhlmann, et al. (2006). "HelF, a putative RNA helicase acts as a nuclear suppressor of RNAi but not antisense mediated gene silencing." Nucleic Acids Res 34(3): 773-84.

Non-University Higher Education and the Relationship of Its Graduates and the World of Work: Colombia

The non-university sector has been part of the Colombian higher education system for more than 50-years. Despite its long years of existence, it has never occupied such an important role within the education system as the one it is having today. Therefore, the aim of this work is to analyze the development of the non-university sector in the framework of the country’s social, educational and economic demands. Likewise, its actual situation and certain aspects of the relationship between its graduates and the world of work, i.e., graduates’ employment characteristics, the relationship of higher education studies and their work, as well as their early career success, are examined. In order to generate the required information, a graduate survey was carried out in Atlántico (Colombia). The target population was graduates from higher education institutions registered in Atlántico who were awarded a technical, technological or professional degree in 2008 from any of the following knowledge areas: Fine Arts, Health Science, Economy-Administration-Accountancy and similar, and Engineering-Architecture-Urban planning and similar. Besides, interviews with academic and administrative staff from non-university institutions were carried out, and higher education related documents were analyzed. As a whole, the findings suggest that the non-university sector is expanding and may help to achieve some of the goals, for which it is widely promoted i.e., access expansion for under-represented groups, enhancement of the higher education system, and the provision of programs pertinent to the needs of the market. Nevertheless, some aspects require further consideration, e.g., the sector’s consolidation within the system and its quality. As for the relationship between non-university higher education and the world of work, it was found to be close; particularly in those aspects related to the use of knowledge and skills in the work, and the relationship between graduates’ studies and their work. Additionally, the analysis of the graduates’ in their early career stages exposes the significant role that the socioeconomic stratum plays in their working life, particularly in their wages. This indicates that apart from education, other factors like the graduates’ economic or social capital may have an impact on their future work perspectives