Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Sustainability and Livelihood Issues of Vembanad Ecosystem Fisherfolk Communities

Dept.of Applied Economics,Cochin University of Science and Technology

Studies on seed pathology and seedling diseases of some important indigenous tree species of kerala

In forestry, availability of healthy seeds is an important factor in raising planting stock. Initial seed health and storage conditions are the major factors governing the germinability of seeds. Like seeds of agricultural and horticultural crops, forest tree seeds are also liable to be affected by micro-organisms during storage, which affects the germination, and reduces the viability. Further introduction of seed-borne diseases into newly sown crops/areas on account of using unhealthy seeds is also not ruled out. Availability of healthy stock of seedlings is intrinsic for raising plantations and to meet this requirement elimination of nursery diseases by appropriate chemicals is of prime imortance. As exotic tree species may become susceptible to various native pathogens, it is generally considered better to select indigenous tree species for large scale plantations as they are well adapted to local environment. However, before taking up large scale afforestation progranme involving any indigenous tree species, it is essential to have knowledge about seed disorders and seedling diseases and their management. with a View to select appropriate tree species with fewer seed disorders and seedling disease problems for use in further plantation programme, four indigenous tree species such as Albizia odoratissima (L.f) Benth., Lagerstroemia microcazpa Wt., Pterocazpus marsupiwn Roxb. and Xylia xylocarpa (Roxb.) Taub. were evaluated to meet the above parameters

“Income, Livelihood and Education of Tribal Communities in Kerala – Exploring Inter Community Disparities

The overall objective of the study is to examine whether the tribal communities in Kerala can be considered a coherent group in terms of select indicators of development by focusing on nine major tribal communities. The study also aims to bring out the intercommunity differences if any in aspects of livelihood options and education level of the tribal communities in Kerala

"|mpact of trawling on sea bottom and its living communities along the inshore waters of southwest coast of India'’

Mechanized fishing started in Indian waters in mid —fifties and large-scale operation of trawl fishing began in the mid sixties by the surfeit of individual entrepreneurs. The southwest coast of India especially the coastal waters of Kerala are the most productive area in the subcontinent and the state has been in the forefront in marine fish production (Kurup, 2001a). Though the coastline of Kerala is one tenth of the coastline of India, the state occupies the foremost position in the marine fish production of the country, accounting for more than 30% of the marine fish landings (Thomas, 2000). The coastal waters of Kerala have rich and diversified fishery resources, which are prone to heavy exploitation by a unprecedently high number of fishing gears, among them, mechanized bottom trawlers with a numerical strength of 4550 (Kurup, 2001a) against the permissible number of 1145 (Kalawar, et al., 1985) are the most destructive. Trawling operations during monsoon periods in Kerala has been a subject of controversy between traditional fishermen and trawl fishers on a subject that trawl fishing destroys large amount of juveniles and young ones of fishes since this period is the major breeding season of most of the fish and prawns (John, 1996). Therefore Government of Kerala imposed a ban on bottom trawling activities from 1988 onwards for a period varying from 21-70 days, which usually commences from June 15th. Though many studies revealed that large amount of non-target groups were destroyed in the commercial trawl fishing in the Indian waters, no concerted study has been conducted so far to evaluate the real impact of bottom trawling on the sea bottom and its living communities. The present study was conducted to assess the impact of excessive bottom trawling exerted on the sea bottom habitat and its living communities, which would be useful in impressing up on the seriousness of habitat degradation and biotic devastation, enabling the concerned to adopt relevant conservation and management steps to conserve the resources for sustainable exploitation

Effect of industrial pollution on the benthic communities of a tropical estuary

Cochin backwaters, a tropical barbuilt estuary is well known for its prawn, molluscan and demersal fisheries. Also it formed the dumping area for sewage,235 retting of husks and discharge of effluents from industries located on either side of it. As a result the fishery is being gradually dwindled year after year due to the lowering of the water quality. The effect of industrial polution on the benthic community of this tropical estuary was worked out. An area extending over 21 km from the mouth of the estuary to upstream of industrial belt was selected. Temporal and spatial variations of 16 environmental parameters at 9 stations along the area were monitored monthly during 1981. Benthic fauna of these 9 stations consisted of amphipods , polychaetes, isopods, tanaidaceans, molluscs and other crustaceans (Decapods, Acetes, Alpheids, Balanus, insect larvae, chironomid larvae, cumacea and some fresh water forms ). Apart from these, sea anemone, flat worms, nematodes, sipunculoids, echinoderms and fishes were also encountered. 75 species belonging to 31 faunal groups were identified. Of these 31 groups, amphipods, polychaedes, isopods, tanaidaceans and molluscs were numerically abundant. Rest of the 26 groups (including 13 riverine forms) were found less significant due to their rare occurrence/low numerical abundance. Polychaetes and molluscs were the only major groups present at all the stations.

Socio-Economic Dimensions of Health Care Development Among Tribals in Kerala: A Study of Tribal Communities in Wynad

The contemporary explanations and discussions of the relationship between medicine and health, and society centre around assumptions that can be broadly classified into three setsl. The first set considers health and illness as predominantly ‘biological’ and therefore, having nothing to do with the social and economic environment in which it occurs. The struggle to combat illness therefore, lies entirely within the purview of modern medicine which is neutral to economic or social change. The second considers practice of medicine as a natural science. It allows the doctor to separate himself from his subject matter, the patient, in the samelway as the natural scientist is assumed to separate himself from his subject matter, the natural world. As a 'science' and with the scientific method, it can produce unchallengable and autonomous body of knowledge which is free from the wider social and economic context. The third, different from the above, recognises the relationship between health, medicine and society. Social and environmental aspects as determinants of illness or of health comes to sharp focus here and it assigns to medicine the status of a mediator, the only viable mediator, between people and diseases. In this scheme of things the usefulness of medicine is unquestionable but the problem lies in not having enough of it to go arounds.

Impact of climate change on hetrotrophic bacterial communities in the water and sediment of kongsfjord in norwegian artic

Considering the extent of warming in the artic region and the resultant changes in the dynamic marine enviornments there is a need to monitor the bacterial diversity in the fjord enviornments especially in terms of cultivable bacteria. The present study reports the diversity of cultivable hetrotrophic bacteria from the water and sediment samples of kongsfjord their growth responses to important enviornmental variables and ability to produce industrially important hydrolytic enzymes.

A Novel Decision Tree Algorithm for Numeric Datasets - C 4.5*Stat

Decision trees are very powerful tools for classification in data mining tasks that involves different types of attributes. When coming to handling numeric data sets, usually they are converted first to categorical types and then classified using information gain concepts. Information gain is a very popular and useful concept which tells you, whether any benefit occurs after splitting with a given attribute as far as information content is concerned. But this process is computationally intensive for large data sets. Also popular decision tree algorithms like ID3 cannot handle numeric data sets. This paper proposes statistical variance as an alternative to information gain as well as statistical mean to split attributes in completely numerical data sets. The new algorithm has been proved to be competent with respect to its information gain counterpart C4.5 and competent with many existing decision tree algorithms against the standard UCI benchmarking datasets using the ANOVA test in statistics. The specific advantages of this proposed new algorithm are that it avoids the computational overhead of information gain computation for large data sets with many attributes, as well as it avoids the conversion to categorical data from huge numeric data sets which also is a time consuming task. So as a summary, huge numeric datasets can be directly submitted to this algorithm without any attribute mappings or information gain computations. It also blends the two closely related fields statistics and data mining

Prediction of Learning Disabilities in School Age Children using SVM and Decision Tree

This paper highlights the prediction of Learning Disabilities (LD) in school-age children using two classification methods, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT), with an emphasis on applications of data mining. About 10% of children enrolled in school have a learning disability. Learning disability prediction in school age children is a very complicated task because it tends to be identified in elementary school where there is no one sign to be identified. By using any of the two classification methods, SVM and DT, we can easily and accurately predict LD in any child. Also, we can determine the merits and demerits of these two classifiers and the best one can be selected for the use in the relevant field. In this study, Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) algorithm is used in performing SVM and J48 algorithm is used in constructing decision trees.