7 resultados para time, team, task and context
em Cochin University of Science
Resumo:
Department of Computer Applications, Cochin University of Science and Technology
Resumo:
The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.
Resumo:
The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.
Resumo:
This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.
Resumo:
Light in its physical and philosophical sense has captured the imagination of human mind right from the dawn of civilization. The invention of lasers in the 60’s caused a renaissance in the field of optics. This intense, monochromatic, highly directional radiation created new frontiers in science and technology. The strong oscillating electric field of laser radiation creates a. polarisation response that is nonlinear in character in the medium through which it passes and the medium acts as a new source of optical field with alternate properties. It was in this context, that the field of optoelectronics which encompasses the generation, modulation, transmission etc. of optical radiation has gained tremendous importance. Organic molecules and polymeric systems have emerged as a class of promising materials of optoelectronics because they offer the flexibility, both at the molecular and bulk levels, to optimize the nonlinearity and other suitable properties for device applications. Organic nonlinear optical media, which yield large third-order nonlinearities, have been widely studied to develop optical devices like high speed switches, optical limiters etc. Transparent polymeric materials have found one of their most promising applicationsin lasers, in which they can be used as active elements with suitable laser dyes doped in it. The solid-matrix dye lasers make possible combination of the advantages of solid state lasers with the possibility of tuning the radiation over a broad spectral range. The polymeric matrices impregnated with organic dyes have not yet widely used because of the low resistance of the polymeric matrices to laser damage, their low dye photostability, and low dye stability over longer time of operation and storage. In this thesis we investigate the nonlinear and radiative properties of certain organic materials and doped polymeric matrix and their possible role in device development
Resumo:
Unit Commitment Problem (UCP) in power system refers to the problem of determining the on/ off status of generating units that minimize the operating cost during a given time horizon. Since various system and generation constraints are to be satisfied while finding the optimum schedule, UCP turns to be a constrained optimization problem in power system scheduling. Numerical solutions developed are limited for small systems and heuristic methodologies find difficulty in handling stochastic cost functions associated with practical systems. This paper models Unit Commitment as a multi stage decision making task and an efficient Reinforcement Learning solution is formulated considering minimum up time /down time constraints. The correctness and efficiency of the developed solutions are verified for standard test systems
Resumo:
Successful management is dependent heavily on the manager’s ability to handle conflict effectively. The workforce has been increasingly becoming diversified vis-à-vis the gender, culture and ethnicity. The present work environment has in itself contributed to sowing seeds of conflict with greater diversity, hostility, complexity and newer business competencies in the work context.The classic study of Mintzberg’s Managerial roles approach (1973) also says that a manager has to spend sufficient time and energy in solving conflict as he has to take roles as a negotiator, and dispute handler. An understanding of the conflict and role that it plays in influencing employee behavior constructively or destructively is immense. Therefore conflict when left unmanaged can lead to diminished cohesiveness amongst employees, productivity and reduced organizational fitness. To manage conflict effective conflict resolution strategies that have constructive outcomes is called for. Conflict resolution style theorists opine that collaborative or integrative style, where there is high concern for task and people is considered to give positive individual and organizational outcomes, while the withdrawing /avoidance style and forcing / dominating style are considered to be ineffective in managing conflict. Though managers have typical preferences in the styles followed it need not necessarily be the typical response as it depends on the context, power relationships, emotions etc. The adoption of conflict styles of managers however is dependent on variables like gender orientation, cultural values, personality orientation, underlying relationships – public/private. The paper attempts to draw the importance of managing conflicts at workplace positively and the need for effective conflict resolution strategies. The conflict style adopted and the variables that affect the adoption of each style are discussed and possible interventions at the workplace are suggested