Predictability Of Share Prices In India: A Study Of The Applicability Of Technical Analysis

In spite of the far longed practices of technical analysis by many participants in Indian stock market, none have arrived at the exact position of technical analysis as a tool for foretelling share prices. There is no evidence supporting that one has established its definite role in predicting the behaviour of share price and also to see the extent of validity (how far reliable) of technical tools in Indian stock market. The problem is the vacuum in the arena of securities market analysis where an unrecognised tool is practised, i.e., whether to hold on to technical analysis or to drop it. Again, as already stated in this chapter, its validity need not continue forever. It may become futile as happened in developed markets. Continuous practice of a tool, which is valid only during discontinuous times is also an error. The efficacy of different market phenomena in terms of their ability to foretell the extent and direction of the price movements and reliability thereof remain as not yet proved in. This requires further study in this area so that this controversy may be settled. A solution to the problem requires enquiring and establishing the applicability of technical analysis, if any, there is in the Indian stock market. The study has the following two broad objectives for the purpose of confirming the applicability, if any, of technical analysis in the Indian stock market. The first objective is to ascertain the current validity of ‘traditional holding with respect to patterns’ and the second objective is to ascertain the ‘consistent superiority’, if any, of technical indicators over non-signal strategies in return generation. The study analyses the five patterns, which are widely known and commonly found in publications. They are: (1) Symmetrical Triangles, (2) Rising Wedges, (3) Falling Wedges, (4) Head and Shoulders Top and (5) Head and Shoulders Bottom.

Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Return Generating Process: A Macroeconomic Approach to Indian Stock Market

A study focusing on the identification of return generating factors and to the extent of their influence on share prices the outcome will be a tool for investment analysis in the hands of investors portfolio managers and mutual funds who are mostly concerned with changing share prices. Since the study takes into account the influence of macroeconomic variables on variations in share returns by using the outcome the government can frame out suitable policies on long term basis and that will help in nurturing a healthy economy and resultant stock market. As every company management tries to maximize the wealth of the share holders a clear idea about the return generating variables and their influence will help the management to frame various policies to maximize the wealth of the shareholders.

Gamma stochastic volatility models

This paper presents gamma stochastic volatility models and investigates its distributional and time series properties. The parameter estimators obtained by the method of moments are shown analytically to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The simulation results indicate that the estimators behave well. The insample analysis shows that return models with gamma autoregressive stochastic volatility processes capture the leptokurtic nature of return distributions and the slowly decaying autocorrelation functions of squared stock index returns for the USA and UK. In comparison with GARCH and EGARCH models, the gamma autoregressive model picks up the persistence in volatility for the US and UK index returns but not the volatility persistence for the Canadian and Japanese index returns. The out-of-sample analysis indicates that the gamma autoregressive model has a superior volatility forecasting performance compared to GARCH and EGARCH models.

Fundamental Approach to Valuation of Securities -A Study with reference to Information Technology(IT) Sector Shares in Indian Stock Market

Department of Applied Economics,Cochin University of Science and Technology

Deep-sea shrimp fishery off Kerala coast with emphasis on biology and population characteristics of Plesionika quasigrandis Chace, 1985

The present study is the first attempt to understand population characteristics of the deep-sea pandalid shrimp, P. quasigrandis and to assess the status of these resources off Kerala coast.Total mortality coefficient (Z) of P. quasigrandis estimated by various methods.Natural mortality coefficient (M) calculated was 0.65 and 1.02 by Pauly‟sempirical formula and Srinaths‟s formula respectively The deep-sea shrimp P. quasigrandis exploited from the present fishing ground and their monetary return has started showing a declining trend. By observing the current yield and economic return, there is no further scope for increasing the catch from the present fishing ground. The study indicated that majority of the deep-sea shrimp trawlers, especially targeted for pandalid shrimps still concentrated off Kollam area (Quilon Bank). Even though researchers had located several potential deep-sea fishing grounds based on exploratory surveys in Indian EEZ , fishermen are unaware of these fishing grounds located and hence sharing the information about new potential deep-sea fishing grounds could avert the possible stock decline due to the intensive targeted deep-sea shrimp fishery in the Quilon Bank. Hence, the present study recommended that part of the effort from existing fishing grounds may be shifted to newly located deep-sea fishing grounds which will help in a sustainableexploitation of deep-sea resources off Kerala coast.

Return and Efficiency of Intercropped Pineapple Cultivation in Kerala

School of management studies