14 resultados para probability of occurrence

em Cochin University of Science


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The purpose of the present study is to understand the surface deformation associated with the Killari and Wadakkancheri earthquake and to examine if there are any evidence of occurrence of paleo-earthquakes in this region or its vicinity. The present study is an attempt to characterize active tectonic structures from two areas within penisular India: the sites of 1993 Killari (Latur) (Mb 6.3) and 1994 Wadakkancheri (M 4.3) earthquakes in the Precambrian shield. The main objectives of the study are to isolate structures related to active tectonism, constraint the style of near – surface deformation and identify previous events by interpreting the deformational features. The study indicates the existence of a NW-SE trending pre-existing fault, passing through the epicentral area of the 1993 Killari earthquake. It presents the salient features obtained during the field investigations in and around the rupture zone. Details of mapping of the scrap, trenching, and shallow drilling are discussed here. It presents the geologic and tectonic settings of the Wadakkancheri area and the local seismicity; interpretation of remote sensing data and a detailed geomorphic analysis. Quantitative geomorphic analysis around the epicenter of the Wadakkancheri earthquake indicates suitable neotectonic rejuvenation. Evaluation of remote sensing data shows distinct linear features including the presence of potentially active WNW-ESE trending fault within the Precambrian shear zone. The study concludes that the earthquakes in the shield area are mostly associated with discrete faults that are developed in association with the preexisting shear zones or structurally weak zones

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The main objective of the present investigation was to study the biochemical genetic variability within the species and genetic structure of its regional populations from west coast. Realising the recent report of occurrence of oil sardine fishery in east coast of India, population samples from Mandapam and Madras were also included in the present investigation. The original data gathered on the population genetics of the species have helped to interpret and evaluate the results objectively. The important conclusions drawn from a detailed discussions on the subject would throw some light on the probable process of problematic fluctuations in the abundance of oil sardine fishery of India. The academic and applied values of present discoveries need not be emphasised. The data used for the doctoral thesis were generated during the ICAR ad-hoc project on the "Population genetic studies on oil sardine, sardinella longiceps to identity distinct genetic stocks", carried out at CMFRI, Cochin during the years, 1988-1991

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The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

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Warships are generally sleek, slender with V shaped sections and block coefficient below 0.5, compared to fuller forms and higher values for commercial ships. They normally operate in the higher Froude number regime, and the hydrodynamic design is primarily aimed at achieving higher speeds with the minimum power. Therefore the structural design and analysis methods are different from those for commercial ships. Certain design guidelines have been given in documents like Naval Engineering Standards and one of the new developments in this regard is the introduction of classification society rules for the design of warships.The marine environment imposes subjective and objective uncertainties on ship structure. The uncertainties in loads, material properties etc.,. make reliable predictions of ship structural response a difficult task. Strength, stiffness and durability criteria for warship structures can be established by investigations on elastic analysis, ultimate strength analysis and reliability analysis. For analysis of complicated warship structures, special means and valid approximations are required.Preliminary structural design of a frigate size ship has been carried out . A finite element model of the hold model, representative of the complexities in the geometric configuration has been created using the finite element software NISA. Two other models representing the geometry to a limited extent also have been created —- one with two transverse frames and the attached plating alongwith the longitudinal members and the other representing the plating and longitudinal stiffeners between two transverse frames. Linear static analysis of the three models have been carried out and each one with three different boundary conditions. The structural responses have been checked for deflections and stresses against the permissible values. The structure has been found adequate in all the cases. The stresses and deflections predicted by the frame model are comparable with those of the hold model. But no such comparison has been realized for the interstiffener plating model with the other two models.Progressive collapse analyses of the models have been conducted for the three boundary conditions, considering geometric nonlinearity and then combined geometric and material nonlinearity for the hold and the frame models. von Mises — lllyushin yield criteria with elastic-perfectly plastic stress-strain curve has been chosen. ln each case, P-Delta curves have been generated and the ultimate load causing failure (ultimate load factor) has been identified as a multiple of the design load specified by NES.Reliability analysis of the hull module under combined geometric and material nonlinearities have been conducted. The Young's Modulus and the shell thickness have been chosen as the variables. Randomly generated values have been used in the analysis. First Order Second Moment has been used to predict the reliability index and thereafter, the probability of failure. The values have been compared against standard values published in literature.

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The accident toll on our road traffic is staggering. Obviously this appalling toll of life and.health represents heavy economic loss in addition to human tragedy. the enormous increase in the number of motor vehicles with its rash, negligent and reckless use by unscrupulous, inexperienced and dangerous drivers in the most miserably managed roads coupled with concomitant hazards would draw our attention that Accident Prevention, and Accident compensation are thoroughly two compatiable aims. Proposed solutions to the traffic Problems abound. Preventive efforts concentrated on each of the variables the driver, the road and the vehicle are all being initiated. Still it is a Will the .Motor Vehicles are not considered as dangerous machines. Motoring activity is found useful.A competent and specially trained police force has to be created to deal with the traffic offences in a more scientific ways.The term ‘legal representative needs to be defined on the constructive aspects of relation and dependence.Services of legal aid and public counsels shall necessarily be extended to the poor Motor Accident victims.Timely reporting and timely investigation of Motor Accidents cases will reduce the number of fraudulent claims. There are instances where cases are taken in to investigation after several months of occurrence.It is hoped that the suggestions made above as a result of the present study, if pwgninto practice, may make a humble contribution to the prevention sssof motor accidents and to a faster and speedier settlement of motor accident compensation claims.

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In the present thesis , observations on the ecology of seaweed flora of Kerala, their distribution and zonation pattern, monthly/seasonal density of seaweeds at each station, frequency of occurrence, standing crop, monthly/seasonal/place-wise data on physico—chemical characters of ambient waters at the stations and their influence on seaweed density have been made. This data will help us in the farming of economically important seaweeds, by providing information on the ideal conditions of seaweed biomass production. Biochemical observations on protein, carbohydrate and lipid contents of different species of nutritive value. Seaweeds with high content of proteins, carbohydrates and lipids can be recommended for food and feed formulations after subjecting them to toxicological studies. The study on monthly/seasonal/placewise variation in biochemical composition of seaweeds will provide necessary information on the appropriate time and place of harvesting the algal species for exploiting its constituents .

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Pollutants that once enter into the earth’s atmosphere become part of the atmosphere and hence their dispersion, dilution, direction of transportation etc. are governed by the meteorological conditions. The thesis deals with the study of the atmospheric dispersion capacity, wind climatology, atmospheric stability, pollutant distribution by means of a model and the suggestions for a comprehensive planning for the industrially developing city, Cochin. The definition, sources, types and effects of air pollution have been dealt with briefly. The influence of various meteorological parameters such as vector wind, temperature and its vertical structure and atmospheric stability in relation to pollutant dispersal have been studied. The importance of inversions, mixing heights, ventilation coefficients were brought out. The spatial variation of mixing heights studies for the first time on a microscale region, serves to delineate the regions of good and poor dispersal capacity. A study of wind direction fluctuation, σθ and its relation to stability and mixing heights were shown to be much useful. It was shown that there is a necessity to look into the method of σθ computation. The development of Gausssian Plume Model along with the application for multiple sources was presented. The pollutant chosen was sulphur dioxide and industrial sources alone were considered. The percentage frequency of occurrence of inversions and isothermals are found to be low in all months during the year. The spatial variation of mixing heights revealed that a single mixing height cannot be taken as a representative for the whole city have low mixing heights and monsoonal months showed lowest mixing heights. The study of ventilation co-efficients showed values less than the required optimum value 6000m2/5. However, the low values may be due to the consideration of surface wind alone instead of the vertically averaged wind. Relatively more calm conditions and light winds during night and strong winds during day time were observed. During the most of the year westerlies during day time and northeasterlies during night time are the dominant winds. Unstable conditions with high values of σθ during day time and stable conditions with lower values of σθ during night time are the prominent features. Monsoonal months showed neutral stability for most of the time. A study σθ of and Pasquill Stability category has revealed the difficulty in giving a unique value of for each stability category. For the first time regression equations have been developed relating mixing heights and σθ. A closer examination of σθ revealed that half of the range of wind direction fluctuations is to be taken, instead of one by sixth, to compute σθ. The spatial distribution of SO2 showed a more or less uniform distribution with a slight intrusion towards south. Winter months showed low concentrations contrary to the expectations. The variations of the concentration is found to be influenced more by the mixing height and the stack height rather than wind speed. In the densely populated areas the concentration is more than the threshold limit value. However, the values reported appear to be high, because no depletion of the material is assumed through dry or wet depositions and also because of the inclusion of calm conditions with a very light wind speed. A reduction of emission during night time with a consequent rise during day time would bring down the levels of pollution. The probable locations for the new industries could be the extreme southeast parts because the concentration towards the north falls off very quickly resulting low concentrations. In such a case pollutant spread would be towards south and west, thus keeping the city interior relatively free from pollution. A more detailed examination of the pollutant spread by means of models that would take the dry and wet depositions may be necessary. Nevertheless, the present model serves to give the trend of the distribution of pollutant concentration with which one can suggest the optimum locations for the new industries

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The present investigations confine to a study of the distribution of foraminifera in the estuarine environment and the interstial area of the sandy beaches of the south west coast of India with a view to correlate the distribution and the intensity of occurrence of the various species with hydrographic conditions and the substrate characteristics of the area. Studies on the foraminifera of the estuarine environment were carried out in the vembanad lake ,a major estuary in the south west coast of india extending for about 60km from cochin barmouth in the north to Alleppey in the south.Fortnightly collections of hydrographical data and grab samples of bottom deposit were made for a period of 2 years (july 1973 to june 1975) from fifteen stations chosen along the length of the lake.

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Usually, under rainfed conditions the growing period exists in the humid months. Hence, for agricultural planning knowledge about the variabilities of the duration of the humid seasons are very much needed. The crucial problem affecting agriculture is the persistency in receiving a specific amount of rainfall during a short period. Agricultural operations and decision making are highly dependent on the probability of receiving given amounts of rainfall; such periods should match the water requirements of different phenological phases of the crops. While prolonged dry periods during sensitive phases are detrimental to their growth and lower the yields, excess of rainfall causes soil erosion and loss of soil nutrients. These factors point to the importance of evaluation of wet and dry spells. In this study the weekly rainfall data have been analysed to estimate the probability of wet and dry periods at all selected stations of each agroclimatic zone and the crop growth potentials of the growing seasons have been analysed. The thesis consists of six Chapters.

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During the period from 12 to 15 April, 2009 nearly the entire Iran, apart from the southern border, experienced an advective cooling event. While winter freezing concerns are typical, the nature of this freezing event was unusual with respect to its date of occurrence and accompanying synoptic meteorological situation. To analyze the freezing event, the relevant meteorological data at multiple levels of the atmosphere were examined from the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset. The results showed that a polar vortex was responsible for the freezing event over the country extending southward extraordinarily in such a way that its ridge influenced most parts of Iran. This was recognized as an abnormal extension of a polar vortex in the recent years. The sea-level pressure fields indicated that a ridge of large-scale anticyclone centered over Black Sea extended southward and prevailed over most parts of Iran. This resulted in the formation of a severe cold air advection from high latitudes (Polar region) over Iran. During the study period, moisture pumping was observed from the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. The winds at 1000 hPa level blew with a magnitude of 10 m s-1 toward south in the region of convergence (between -2 9 10-6 s-1 and -12 9 10-6 s-1). The vertical profilesof temperature and humidity also indicated that the ICE structural icing occurred at multiple levels of the atmosphere, i.e, from 800 hPa through 400 hPa levels. In addition to the carburetor (or induction), icing occurred between 900 and 700 hPa levels in the selected radiosonde stations during the study period. In addition, the HYSPLIT backward trajectory model outputs were in quite good agreement with the observed synoptic features

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Emergence of drug resistance among pathogenic bacteria to currently available antibiotics has intensified the search for novel bioactive compounds from unexplored habitats. In the present study actinomycetes were isolated from two relatively unexplored and widely differing habitats such as mountain and wetlands and their ability to produce antibacterial substances were analyzed. Pure cultures of actinomycetes were identified by morphological and biochemical tests. Various genera of actinomycetes encountered included Nocardia, Pseudonocardia, Streptomyces, Nocardiopsis, Streptosporangium, Micromonospora, Rhodococcus, Actinosynnema, Nocardiodes, Kitasatosporia, Gordona, Intrasporangium and Streptoalloteichus. The frequency of occurrence of each genus was found to vary with sample. About 47% of wetland isolates and 33% of mountain isolates were identified as various species of Nocardia. The isolated strains differed among themselves in their ability to decompose proteins and amino acids and also in enzyme production potential. Antibiotic activities of these actinomycetes were evaluated against 12 test pathogenic bacteria by well diffusion method using agar wells in glycerol-yeast extract agar. About 95% of actinomycete isolates from wetland ecosystem and 75% of highland isolates suppressed in different degrees the growth of test pathogens. Relatively high antibacterial activity among these isolates underlined their potential as a source of novel antibiotics.

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Severe local storms, including tornadoes, damaging hail and wind gusts, frequently occur over the eastern and northeastern states of India during the pre-monsoon season (March-May). Forecasting thunderstorms is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction, due to their rather small spatial and temporal extension and the inherent non-linearity of their dynamics and physics. In this paper, sensitivity experiments are conducted with the WRF-NMM model to test the impact of convective parameterization schemes on simulating severe thunderstorms that occurred over Kolkata on 20 May 2006 and 21 May 2007 and validated the model results with observation. In addition, a simulation without convective parameterization scheme was performed for each case to determine if the model could simulate the convection explicitly. A statistical analysis based on mean absolute error, root mean square error and correlation coefficient is performed for comparisons between the simulated and observed data with different convective schemes. This study shows that the prediction of thunderstorm affected parameters is sensitive to convective schemes. The Grell-Devenyi cloud ensemble convective scheme is well simulated the thunderstorm activities in terms of time, intensity and the region of occurrence of the events as compared to other convective schemes and also explicit scheme

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Performance of any continuous speech recognition system is dependent on the accuracy of its acoustic model. Hence, preparation of a robust and accurate acoustic model lead to satisfactory recognition performance for a speech recognizer. In acoustic modeling of phonetic unit, context information is of prime importance as the phonemes are found to vary according to the place of occurrence in a word. In this paper we compare and evaluate the effect of context dependent tied (CD tied) models, context dependent (CD) and context independent (CI) models in the perspective of continuous speech recognition of Malayalam language. The database for the speech recognition system has utterance from 21 speakers including 11 female and 10 males. Our evaluation results show that CD tied models outperforms CI models over 21%.

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The present study described about the interaction of a two level atom and squeezed field with time varying frequency. By applying a sinusoidal variation in the frequency of the field, the randomness in population inversion is reduced and the collapses and periodic revivals are regained. Quantum optics is an emerging field in physics which mainly deals with the interaction of atoms with quantised electromagnetic fields. Jaynes-Cummings Model (JCM) is a key model among them, which describes the interaction between a two level atom and a single mode radiation field. Here the study begins with a brief history of light, atom and their interactions. Also discussed the interaction between atoms and electromagnetic fields. The study suggest a method to manipulate the population inversion due to interaction and control the randomness in it, by applying a time dependence on the frequency of the interacting squeezed field.The change in behaviour of the population inversion due to the presence of a phase factor in the applied frequency variation is explained here.This study also describes the interaction between two level atom and electromagnetic field in nonlinear Kerr medium. It deals with atomic and field state evolution in a coupled cavity system. Our results suggest a new method to control and manipulate the population of states in two level atom radiation interaction,which is very essential for quantum information processing.We have also studied the variation of atomic population inversion with time, when a two level atom interacts with light field, where the light field has a sinusoidal frequency variation with a constant phase. In both coherent field and squeezed field cases, the population inversion variation is completely different from the phase zero frequency modulation case. It is observed that in the presence of a non zero phase φ, the population inversion oscillates sinusoidally.Also the collapses and revivals gradually disappears when φ increases from 0 to π/2. When φ = π/2 the evolution of population inversion is identical to the case when a two level atom interacts with a Fock state. Thus, by applying a phase shifted frequency modulation one can induce sinusoidal oscillations of atomic inversion in linear medium, those normally observed in Kerr medium. We noticed that the entanglement between the atom and field can be controlled by varying the period of the field frequency fluctuations. The system has been solved numerically and the behaviour of it for different initial conditions and different susceptibility values are analysed. It is observed that, for weak cavity coupling the effect of susceptibility is minimal. In cases of strong cavity coupling, susceptibility factor modifies the nature in which the probability oscillates with time. Effect of susceptibility on probability of states is closely related to the initial state of the system.