Modelling and Analysis of Some Time Series

The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.

Computationally Efficient Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Returns and Volatilities in ARCH and GARCH Processes

We propose a novel, simple, efficient and distribution-free re-sampling technique for developing prediction intervals for returns and volatilities following ARCH/GARCH models. In particular, our key idea is to employ a Box–Jenkins linear representation of an ARCH/GARCH equation and then to adapt a sieve bootstrap procedure to the nonlinear GARCH framework. Our simulation studies indicate that the new re-sampling method provides sharp and well calibrated prediction intervals for both returns and volatilities while reducing computational costs by up to 100 times, compared to other available re-sampling techniques for ARCH/GARCH models. The proposed procedure is illustrated by an application to Yen/U.S. dollar daily exchange rate data.

Development of Hierarchical Clustering Techniques for Gridded Data from Mixed Data Sequences

Knowledge discovery in databases is the non-trivial process of identifying valid, novel potentially useful and ultimately understandable patterns from data. The term Data mining refers to the process which does the exploratory analysis on the data and builds some model on the data. To infer patterns from data, data mining involves different approaches like association rule mining, classification techniques or clustering techniques. Among the many data mining techniques, clustering plays a major role, since it helps to group the related data for assessing properties and drawing conclusions. Most of the clustering algorithms act on a dataset with uniform format, since the similarity or dissimilarity between the data points is a significant factor in finding out the clusters. If a dataset consists of mixed attributes, i.e. a combination of numerical and categorical variables, a preferred approach is to convert different formats into a uniform format. The research study explores the various techniques to convert the mixed data sets to a numerical equivalent, so as to make it equipped for applying the statistical and similar algorithms. The results of clustering mixed category data after conversion to numeric data type have been demonstrated using a crime data set. The thesis also proposes an extension to the well known algorithm for handling mixed data types, to deal with data sets having only categorical data. The proposed conversion has been validated on a data set corresponding to breast cancer. Moreover, another issue with the clustering process is the visualization of output. Different geometric techniques like scatter plot, or projection plots are available, but none of the techniques display the result projecting the whole database but rather demonstrate attribute-pair wise analysis

Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Sequences Generated by Product Autoregressive Models

The classical methods of analysing time series by Box-Jenkins approach assume that the observed series uctuates around changing levels with constant variance. That is, the time series is assumed to be of homoscedastic nature. However, the nancial time series exhibits the presence of heteroscedasticity in the sense that, it possesses non-constant conditional variance given the past observations. So, the analysis of nancial time series, requires the modelling of such variances, which may depend on some time dependent factors or its own past values. This lead to introduction of several classes of models to study the behaviour of nancial time series. See Taylor (1986), Tsay (2005), Rachev et al. (2007). The class of models, used to describe the evolution of conditional variances is referred to as stochastic volatility modelsThe stochastic models available to analyse the conditional variances, are based on either normal or log-normal distributions. One of the objectives of the present study is to explore the possibility of employing some non-Gaussian distributions to model the volatility sequences and then study the behaviour of the resulting return series. This lead us to work on the related problem of statistical inference, which is the main contribution of the thesis

Photothermal beam deflection for non-destructive evaluation of semiconductor thin films

Non-destructive testing (NDT) is the use of non-invasive techniques to determine the integrity of a material, component, or structure. Engineers and scientists use NDT in a variety of applications, including medical imaging, materials analysis, and process control.Photothermal beam deflection technique is one of the most promising NDT technologies. Tremendous R&D effort has been made for improving the efficiency and simplicity of this technique. It is a popular technique because it can probe surfaces irrespective of the size of the sample and its surroundings. This technique has been used to characterize several semiconductor materials, because of its non-destructive and non-contact evaluation strategy. Its application further extends to analysis of wide variety of materials. Instrumentation of a NDT technique is very crucial for any material analysis. Chapter two explores the various excitation sources, source modulation techniques, detection and signal processing schemes currently practised. The features of the experimental arrangement including the steps for alignment, automation, data acquisition and data analysis are explained giving due importance to details.Theoretical studies form the backbone of photothermal techniques. The outcome of a theoretical work is the foundation of an application.The reliability of the theoretical model developed and used is proven from the studies done on crystalline.The technique is applied for analysis of transport properties such as thermal diffusivity, mobility, surface recombination velocity and minority carrier life time of the material and thermal imaging of solar cell absorber layer materials like CuInS2, CuInSe2 and SnS thin films.analysis of In2S3 thin films, which are used as buffer layer material in solar cells. The various influences of film composition, chlorine and silver incorporation in this material is brought out from the measurement of transport properties and analysis of sub band gap levels.The application of photothermal deflection technique for characterization of solar cells is a relatively new area that requires considerable attention.The application of photothermal deflection technique for characterization of solar cells is a relatively new area that requires considerable attention. Chapter six thus elucidates the theoretical aspects of application of photothermal techniques for solar cell analysis. The experimental design and method for determination of solar cell efficiency, optimum load resistance and series resistance with results from the analysis of CuInS2/In2S3 based solar cell forms the skeleton of this chapter.

Analysis and Optimization of Machining Process Using Evolutionary Algorithms

To ensure quality of machined products at minimum machining costs and maximum machining effectiveness, it is very important to select optimum parameters when metal cutting machine tools are employed. Traditionally, the experience of the operator plays a major role in the selection of optimum metal cutting conditions. However, attaining optimum values each time by even a skilled operator is difficult. The non-linear nature of the machining process has compelled engineers to search for more effective methods to attain optimization. The design objective preceding most engineering design activities is simply to minimize the cost of production or to maximize the production efficiency. The main aim of research work reported here is to build robust optimization algorithms by exploiting ideas that nature has to offer from its backyard and using it to solve real world optimization problems in manufacturing processes.In this thesis, after conducting an exhaustive literature review, several optimization techniques used in various manufacturing processes have been identified. The selection of optimal cutting parameters, like depth of cut, feed and speed is a very important issue for every machining process. Experiments have been designed using Taguchi technique and dry turning of SS420 has been performed on Kirlosker turn master 35 lathe. Analysis using S/N and ANOVA were performed to find the optimum level and percentage of contribution of each parameter. By using S/N analysis the optimum machining parameters from the experimentation is obtained.Optimization algorithms begin with one or more design solutions supplied by the user and then iteratively check new design solutions, relative search spaces in order to achieve the true optimum solution. A mathematical model has been developed using response surface analysis for surface roughness and the model was validated using published results from literature.Methodologies in optimization such as Simulated annealing (SA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Conventional Genetic Algorithm (CGA) and Improved Genetic Algorithm (IGA) are applied to optimize machining parameters while dry turning of SS420 material. All the above algorithms were tested for their efficiency, robustness and accuracy and observe how they often outperform conventional optimization method applied to difficult real world problems. The SA, PSO, CGA and IGA codes were developed using MATLAB. For each evolutionary algorithmic method, optimum cutting conditions are provided to achieve better surface finish.The computational results using SA clearly demonstrated that the proposed solution procedure is quite capable in solving such complicated problems effectively and efficiently. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a relatively recent heuristic search method whose mechanics are inspired by the swarming or collaborative behavior of biological populations. From the results it has been observed that PSO provides better results and also more computationally efficient.Based on the results obtained using CGA and IGA for the optimization of machining process, the proposed IGA provides better results than the conventional GA. The improved genetic algorithm incorporating a stochastic crossover technique and an artificial initial population scheme is developed to provide a faster search mechanism. Finally, a comparison among these algorithms were made for the specific example of dry turning of SS 420 material and arriving at optimum machining parameters of feed, cutting speed, depth of cut and tool nose radius for minimum surface roughness as the criterion. To summarize, the research work fills in conspicuous gaps between research prototypes and industry requirements, by simulating evolutionary procedures seen in nature that optimize its own systems.

Novel Melt Transurethane Process for Cycloaliphatic Polyurethanes and Their Self-Organization for Nano-Materials

In this introduction part, importance has been given to the elastomeric properties of polyurethanes. Emphasis has been laid to this property based on microphase separation and how this could be modified by modifying the segment lengths, as well as the structure of the segments. Implication was also made on the mechanical and thermal properties of these copolymers based on various analytical methods usually used for characterization of polymers. A brief overview of the challenges faced by the polyurethane chemistry was also done, pointing to the fact that though polyurethane industry is more than 75 years old, still a lot of questions remain unanswered, that too mostly in the synthesis of polyurethanes. A major challenge in this industry is the utilization of more environmental friendly “Green Chemistry Routes” for the synthesis of polyurethanes which are devoid of any isocyanates or harsh solvents.The research work in this thesis was focused to develop non-isocyanate green chemical process for polyurethanes and also self-organize the resultant novel polymers into nano-materials. The thesis was focused on the following three major aspects:(i) Design and development of novel melt transurethane process for polyurethanes under non-isocyanate and solvent free melt condition. (ii) Solvent induced self-organization of the novel cycloaliphatic polyurethanes prepared by the melt transurethane process into microporous templates and nano-sized polymeric hexagons and spheres. (iii) Novel polyurethane-oligophenylenevinylene random block copolymer nano-materials and their photoluminescence properties. The second chapter of the thesis gives an elaborate discussion on the “Novel Melt Transurethane Process ” for the synthesis of polyurethanes under non-isocyanate and solvent free melt condition. The polycondensation reaction was carried out between equimolar amounts of a di-urethane monomer and a diol in the presence of a catalyst under melt condition to produce polyurethanes followed by the removal of low boiling alcohol from equilibrium. The polymers synthesized through this green chemical route were found to be soluble (devoid of any cross links), thermally stable and free from any isocyanate entities. The polymerization reaction was confirmed by various analytical techniques with specific references to the extent of reaction which is the main watchful point for any successful polymerization reaction. The mechanistic aspects of the reaction were another point of consideration for the novel polymerization route which was successfully dealt with by performing various model reactions. Since this route was successful enough in synthesizing polyurethanes with novel structures, they were employed for the solvent induced self-organization which is an important area of research in the polymer world in the present scenario. Chapter three mesmerizes the reader with multitudes of morphologies depending upon the chemical backbone structure of the polyurethane as well as on the nature and amount of various solvents employed for the self-organization tactics. The rationale towards these morphologies-“Hydrogen Bonding ” have been systematically probed by various techniques. These polyurethanes were then tagged with luminescent 0ligo(phenylene vinylene) units and the effects of these OPV blocks on the morphology of the polyurethanes were analyzed in chapter four. These blocks have resulted in the formation of novel “Blue Luminescent Balls” which could find various applications in optoelectronic devices as well as delivery vehicles.

Non-destruct|ve testing of non-metallic materials using microwaves

The motivatitni for" the present work is from .a project sanctioned by TSRO. The work involved the development of a quick and reliable test procedure using microwaves, for tflue inspection of cured propellant samples and a method to monitor the curing conditions of propellant mix undergoing the curing process.Normal testing CHE the propellant samples involvecuttimg a piece from each carton and testing it for their tensile strength. The values are then compared with standard ones and based on this result the sample isaccepted or rejected. The tensile strength is a measure ofdegree of cure of the propellant mix. But this measurementis a destructive procedure as it involves cutting of the sample. Moreover, it does not guarantee against nonuniform curing due to power failure, hot air-line failure,operator error etc. This necessitated the need for the development of a quick and reliable non-destructive test procedure.

Level Of Women Participation In Rural Development - A Comparative Study Of Governmental And Non-Governmental Organisations In Kerala

The study is intended to estimate the existing rate of participation of women beneficiaries in the development programmes of different organisations in Kerala. It would enable one to understand whether participation is at the satisfactory level or not. Given the rate of participation, the major thrust of the analysis is on the impact of governmental and non-governmental organisations on the rate of participation. This is undertaken under the assumption that NGOs, due to their proximity to people and their needs, ensure better participation rates. Besides the organisational differences, the other major determinants of women participation such as their socio-economic characteristics, psychological make up, the nature of the programme etc. are also highlighted. 0 Since the ascribed status of women in society is inferior, the role of organisers, development personnel and local leaders is also pointed out. Thus the basic objective of the study is women participation and its determinants in the development programmes

A Study on Non Performing Assets of Public Sector Banks in India with Special Reference to State Bank of Travancore

The reforms in Indian banking sector since 1991 is deliberated mostly in terms of the significant measures that were implemented in order to develop a more vibrant, healthy, stable and efficient banking sector in India. The effect of a highly regulated banking environment on asset quality, productivity and performance of banks necessitated the reform process and resulted the incorporation of prudential norms for income recognition, asset classification and provisioning and capital adequacy norms, in line with international best practices. The improvements in asset quality and a reduction in non-performing assets were the primary objective enunciated in the reform measures. In this context, the present research critically evaluates the trend in movement of nonperforming assets of public sector banks in India during the period 2000-01 to 2011-12, thereby facilitates an evaluation of the effectiveness of NPA management in the post-millennium period. The non-performing assets is not a function of loan/advance alone, but is influenced by other bank performance indicators and also by the macroeconomic variables. In addition to explaining the trend in the movement of NPA, this research also explained the moderating and mediating role of various bank performance and macroeconomic indicators on incidence of NPA

Service provider switching: a study on the switching process in retail banking

In a business environment that is characterized by intense competition, building customer loyalty has become a key area of focus for most financial institutions. The explosion of the services sector, changing customer demographics and deregulation and emergence of new technology in the financial services industry have had a critical impact on consumers’ financial services buying behaviour. The changes have forced banks to modify their service offerings to customers so as to ensure high levels of customer satisfaction and also high levels of customer retention. Banks have historically had difficulty distinguishing their products from one another because of their relative homogeneity; with increasing competition,the problem has only intensified with no coherent distinguishing theme. Rising wealth, product proliferation, regulatory changes and newer technologies are together making bank switching easier for customers. In order to remain competitive, it is important for banks to retain their customer base. The financial services sector is the foundation for any economy and plays the role of mobilization of resources and their allocation. The retail banking sector in India has emerged as one of the major drivers of the overall banking industry and has witnessed enormous growth. Switching behaviour has a negative impact on the banks’ market share and profitability as the costs of acquiring customers are much higher than the costs of retaining. When customers switch, the business loses the potential for additional profits from the customer the initial costs invested in the customer by the business get . The Objective of the thesis was to examine the relationship among triggers that customers experience, their perceptions of service quality, consumers’ commitment and behavioral intentions in the contemporary India retail banking context through the eyes of the customer. To understand customers’ perception of these aspects, data were collected from retail banking customers alone for the purpose of analysis, though the banks’ views were considered during the qualitative work carried out prior to the main study. No respondent who is an employee of a banking organization was considered for the final study to avoid the possibility of any bias that could affect the results adversely. The data for the study were collected from customers who have switched banks and from those who were non switchers. The study attempted to develop and validate a multidimensional construct of service quality for retail banking from the consumer’s perspective. A major conclusion from the empirical research was the confirmation of the multidimensional construct for perceived service quality in the banking context. Switching can be viewed as an optimization problem for customers; customers review the potential gains of switching to another service provider against the costs of leaving the service provider. As banks do not provide tangible products, their service quality is usually assessed through service provider’s relationship with customers. Thus, banks should pay attention towards their employees’ skills and knowledge; assessing customers’ needs and offering fast and efficient services.

Design and Synthesis of Donor-Acceptor Low Band Gap Copolymers for Photoconductive and Non-linear Optical Applications

The main focus of the present study was to develop ideal low band gap D-A copolymers for photoconducting and non-linear optical applications. This chapter summarizes the overall research work done. Designed copolymers were synthesized via direct arylation or Suzuki coupling reactions. Copolymers were characterized by theoretical and experimental methods. The suitability of these copolymers in photoconducting and optical limiting devices has been investigated.The results suggest that the copolymers investigated in the present study have a good non-linear optical response and are comparable to or even better than the D-A copolymers reported in the literature and hence could be chosen as ideal candidates with potential applications for non-linear optics. The results also show that the structures of the polymers have great impact on NLO properties. Copolymers studied here exhibits good optical limiting property at 532 nm wavelength due to two-photon absorption (TPA) process. The results revealed that the two copolymers, (P(EDOT-BTSe) and P(PH-TZ)) exhibited strong two-photon absorption and superior optical power limiting properties, which are much better than that of others.