An Extended Pearson System Useful In Reliability Analysis

In the present environment, industry should provide the products of high quality. Quality of products is judged by the period of time they can successfully perform their intended functions without failure. The cause of the failures can be ascertained through life testing experiments and the times to failure due to different cause are likely to follow different distributions. Knowledge of this distribution is essential to eliminate causes of failures and thereby to improve the quality and the reliability of products. The main accomplishment expected to the study is to develop statistical tools that could facilitate solution to lifetime data arising in such and similar contexts

‘Driving Forces of Investment Decisions in Mutual Funds’

Unfortunately, in India it is a fact that most of the investors are not interested in mutual funds. Those who are investing, they are investing only very small amounts. But what is important to be noted here is that when compared to other financial instruments, investments in mutual funds are safer and also yields more returns on the investment portfolio. Moreover as an investment avenue mutual fund is available for those investors who are not willing to take any exposure directly in the security market. It also helps such investors to build their wealth over a period of time. At the retail level, investors are unique and are highly heterogeneous, and the mutual fund schemes' selection will also differ depends on their expectations. Hence, investors’ expectation is a very important factor in this regard that needs to be analysed by all the investment houses. Hence, the factors that drive the investment decisions of individual investors to meet their expectations by investing money in mutual funds need an in-depth analysis. These driving forces include the preference of investors on mutual fund compared to various available avenues of financial investments, risk attitude of investors, influence of characteristics of instruments of mutual funds on investors, the investment specific attitudes of investors, and influence of qualities of fund management on investors. The success of any mutual fund, a popular means of investment, depends on how effectively an Asset Management Company has been able to understand the level of influence of these factors on the decision of investors to invest in mutual funds. For a substantial growth in the mutual fund market, there must be a high level precision in the design and marketing of the products of mutual funds taking into account these driving forces by the Asset Management Companies. Therefore, there is a need to conduct a detailed study on investments in mutual funds in this direction. A review of available literature also revealed that no detailed study on mutual funds has so far been attempted in this direction; hence the present study on Driving Forces of Investment Decisions in Mutual Funds is undertaken.

Performance of Supply Chain when using selected Coordination Mechanisms

Coordination among supply chain members is essential for better supply chain performance. An effective method to improve supply chain coordination is to implement proper coordination mechanisms. The primary objective of this research is to study the performance of a multi-level supply chain while using selected coordination mechanisms separately, and in combination, under lost sale and back order cases. The coordination mechanisms used in this study are price discount, delay in payment and different types of information sharing. Mathematical modelling and simulation modelling are used in this study to analyse the performance of the supply chain using these mechanisms. Initially, a three level supply chain consisting of a supplier, a manufacturer and a retailer has been used to study the combined effect of price discount and delay in payment on the performance (profit) of supply chain using mathematical modelling. This study showed that implementation of individual mechanisms improves the performance of the supply chain compared to ‘no coordination’. When more than one mechanism is used in combination, performance in most cases further improved. The three level supply chain considered in mathematical modelling was then extended to a three level network supply chain consisting of a four retailers, two wholesalers, and a manufacturer with an infinite part supplier. The performance of this network supply chain was analysed under both lost sale and backorder cases using simulation modelling with the same mechanisms: ‘price discount and delay in payment’ used in mathematical modelling. This study also showed that the performance of the supply chain is significantly improved while using combination of mechanisms as obtained earlier. In this study, it is found that the effect (increase in profit) of ‘delay in payment’ and combination of ‘price discount’ & ‘delay in payment’ on SC profit is relatively high in the case of lost sale. Sensitivity analysis showed that order cost of the retailer plays a major role in the performance of the supply chain as it decides the order quantity of the other players in the supply chain in this study. Sensitivity analysis also showed that there is a proportional change in supply chain profit with change in rate of return of any player. In the case of price discount, elasticity of demand is an important factor to improve the performance of the supply chain. It is also found that the change in permissible delay in payment given by the seller to the buyer affects the SC profit more than the delay in payment availed by the buyer from the seller. In continuation of the above, a study on the performance of a four level supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, a wholesaler, a distributor and a retailer with ‘information sharing’ as coordination mechanism, under lost sale and backorder cases, using a simulation game with live players has been conducted. In this study, best performance is obtained in the case of sharing ‘demand and supply chain performance’ compared to other seven types of information sharing including traditional method. This study also revealed that effect of information sharing on supply chain performance is relatively high in the case of lost sale than backorder. The in depth analysis in this part of the study showed that lack of information sharing need not always be resulting in bullwhip effect. Instead of bullwhip effect, lack of information sharing produced a huge hike in lost sales cost or backorder cost in this study which is also not favorable for the supply chain. Overall analysis provided the extent of improvement in supply chain performance under different cases. Sensitivity analysis revealed useful insights about the decision variables of supply chain and it will be useful for the supply chain management practitioners to take appropriate decisions.

Permutation Entropy Based Analysis of Complex Signals for Characterising Change in System Dynamics

Timely detection of sudden change in dynamics that adversely affect the performance of systems and quality of products has great scientific relevance. This work focuses on effective detection of dynamical changes of real time signals from mechanical as well as biological systems using a fast and robust technique of permutation entropy (PE). The results are used in detecting chatter onset in machine turning and identifying vocal disorders from speech signal.Permutation Entropy is a nonlinear complexity measure which can efficiently distinguish regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the change in dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. Here we propose the use of permutation entropy (PE), to detect the dynamical changes in two non linear processes, turning under mechanical system and speech under biological system.Effectiveness of PE in detecting the change in dynamics in turning process from the time series generated with samples of audio and current signals is studied. Experiments are carried out on a lathe machine for sudden increase in depth of cut and continuous increase in depth of cut on mild steel work pieces keeping the speed and feed rate constant. The results are applied to detect chatter onset in machining. These results are verified using frequency spectra of the signals and the non linear measure, normalized coarse-grained information rate (NCIR).PE analysis is carried out to investigate the variation in surface texture caused by chatter on the machined work piece. Statistical parameter from the optical grey level intensity histogram of laser speckle pattern recorded using a charge coupled device (CCD) camera is used to generate the time series required for PE analysis. Standard optical roughness parameter is used to confirm the results.Application of PE in identifying the vocal disorders is studied from speech signal recorded using microphone. Here analysis is carried out using speech signals of subjects with different pathological conditions and normal subjects, and the results are used for identifying vocal disorders. Standard linear technique of FFT is used to substantiate thc results.The results of PE analysis in all three cases clearly indicate that this complexity measure is sensitive to change in regularity of a signal and hence can suitably be used for detection of dynamical changes in real world systems. This work establishes the application of the simple, inexpensive and fast algorithm of PE for the benefit of advanced manufacturing process as well as clinical diagnosis in vocal disorders.

Sustainability of Participatory Projects: Study of Productive Sector under Peoples’ Planning in Chempu Village Panchayat of Kottayam District

The study has wider policy implications as it identifies the possible variables which influence the sustainability of participatory productive sector projects. The method which is developed to study the sustainability of projects under People’s Planning in Chempu Panchayat could be used for studying the same in other panchayats also. Unlike the case of the standard features of sustainability identified, the independent variables vary according to the nature of the project. Hence, this needs to be modified accordingly while applying the method in a dissimilar domain. Selection of a single panchayat for the present study is relevant on the basis of a common package of inputs for decentralised planning which is forwarded by the State Planning Board respectively for the three-tier panchayat system in Kerala. The dynamic filed realities could be brought out in view of a comprehensive planning approach through an in depth study of specific cases.The assessment of the nature and pattern of productive sector projects in the selected Village Panchayat puts the projects under close scrutiny. The analysis has depended largely on secondary sources of information, especially from panchayat level plan documents, and also on the primary information obtained using direct observation and on-site inspection of project sites. An analysis of the nature and pattem of productive sector projects is important as it gives all necessary information regarding follow-up, monitoring/evaluation and even termination of a particular project. It has also revealed the tendencies of including infrastructure and service sector projects under ‘productive’ category, especially for maintaining the stipulated ratio (40:30:30) of grant-in-aid distribution. The study regarding the allocation and expenditure pattern of plan funds is vital in policy level as it reveals the under-noticed allocation and expenditure pattern of plan funds other than grant-in-aid. One major limitation of the study has been the limited availability of secondary data, especially regarding project-wise expenditure and monitoring/evaluation reports of various project committees.

‘Reliability Concepts in Quantile-based Analysis of Lifetime Data

Reliability analysis is a well established branch of statistics that deals with the statistical study of different aspects of lifetimes of a system of components. As we pointed out earlier that major part of the theory and applications in connection with reliability analysis were discussed based on the measures in terms of distribution function. In the beginning chapters of the thesis, we have described some attractive features of quantile functions and the relevance of its use in reliability analysis. Motivated by the works of Parzen (1979), Freimer et al. (1988) and Gilchrist (2000), who indicated the scope of quantile functions in reliability analysis and as a follow up of the systematic study in this connection by Nair and Sankaran (2009), in the present work we tried to extend their ideas to develop necessary theoretical framework for lifetime data analysis. In Chapter 1, we have given the relevance and scope of the study and a brief outline of the work we have carried out. Chapter 2 of this thesis is devoted to the presentation of various concepts and their brief reviews, which were useful for the discussions in the subsequent chapters .In the introduction of Chapter 4, we have pointed out the role of ageing concepts in reliability analysis and in identifying life distributions .In Chapter 6, we have studied the first two L-moments of residual life and their relevance in various applications of reliability analysis. We have shown that the first L-moment of residual function is equivalent to the vitality function, which have been widely discussed in the literature .In Chapter 7, we have defined percentile residual life in reversed time (RPRL) and derived its relationship with reversed hazard rate (RHR). We have discussed the characterization problem of RPRL and demonstrated with an example that the RPRL for given does not determine the distribution uniquely

Stochastic processes and their applications semi-markov analysis of some inventory and queuing problems

This thesis analyses certain problems in Inventories and Queues. There are many situations in real-life where we encounter models as described in this thesis. It analyses in depth various models which can be applied to production, storag¢, telephone traffic, road traffic, economics, business administration, serving of customers, operations of particle counters and others. Certain models described here is not a complete representation of the true situation in all its complexity, but a simplified version amenable to analysis. While discussing the models, we show how a dependence structure can be suitably introduced in some problems of Inventories and Queues. Continuous review, single commodity inventory systems with Markov dependence structure introduced in the demand quantities, replenishment quantities and reordering levels are considered separately. Lead time is assumed to be zero in these models. An inventory model involving random lead time is also considered (Chapter-4). Further finite capacity single server queueing systems with single/bulk arrival, single/bulk services are also discussed. In some models the server is assumed to go on vacation (Chapters 7 and 8). In chapters 5 and 6 a sort of dependence is introduced in the service pattern in some queuing models.

Studies on pulp propogation in single mode optical fibres

Studies on pulse propagation in single mode optical fibers have attracted interest from a wide area of science and technology as they have laid down the foundation for an in-depth understanding of the underlying physical principles, especially in the field of optical telecommunications. The foremost among them is discovery of the optical soliton which is considered to be one of the most significant events of the twentieth century owing to its fantastic ability to propagate undistorted over long distances and to remain unaflected after collision with each other. To exploit the important propertia of optical solitons, innovative mathematical models which take into account proper physical properties of the single mode optical fibers demand special attention. This thesis contains a theoretical analysis of the studies on soliton pulse propagation in single mode optical fibers.