Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Biochemical and molecular characterization of pathogenic vibrios from hatcheries and aquaculture farms

Vibrio are important during hatchery rearing. aquaculture phase and post-harvest quality of shrimps. Vibrio spp are of concern to shrimp farmers and hatchery operators because certain species can cause Vibriosis. Vibrio species are of concern to humans because certain species cause serious diseases.With the progress in aquaculture, intensive systems used for shrimp aquaculture create an artificial environment that increases bacterial growth. To maintain the productivity of such an intensive aquaculture, high inputs of fish protein have to be employed for feeding together with high levels of water exchange and the massive use of antibiotics/ probiotics / chemicals. It seems that the combination of these conditions favours the proliferation of vibrios and enhances their virulence and disease prevalence. The risk of a microbial infection is high, mainly at larval stages. The effect and severity are related to Vibrio species and dose, water, feed, shrimp quality and aquaculture management.Consumption of seafood can occasionally result in food-bome illnesses due to the proliferation of indigenous pathogens like Vibrio.Of the l2 pathogenic Vibrio species, 8 species are known to be directly food associated. Strict quality guidelines have been laid by the importing nations, for the food products that enter their markets. The microbiological quality requirement for export of frozen shrimp products is that V.cholerae, V.parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus should be absent in 25g of the processed shrimp (Export Inspection Council of India, 1995). The mere presence of these pathogenic Vibrios is sufficient for the rejection of the exported product.The export rejections cause serious economic loss to the shrimp industry and might harm the brand image of the shrimp products from the countiy.There is a need for an independent study on the incidence of different pathogenic vibrios in shrimp aquaculture and investigate their biochemical characteristics to have a better understanding about the growth and survival of these organisms in the shrimp aquaculture niche. PCR based methods (conventional PCR, duplex PCR, multiplex-PCR and Real Time PCR) for the detection of the pathogenic Vibrios is important for rapid post-harvest quality assessment. Studies on the genetic heterogeneity among the specific pathogenic vibrio species isolated from shrimp aquaculture system provide; valuable information on the extent of genetic diversity of the pathogenic vibrios, the shrimp aquaculture system.So the present study was undertaken to study the incidence of pathogenic Vibrio spp. in Penaeus monodon shrimp hatcheries and aquaculture farms, to carry out biochemical investigations of the pathogenic Vibrio spp isolated from P. monodon hatchery and. aquaculture environments, to assess the effect of salt (NaCl) on the growth and enzymatic activities of pathogenic Vibrio spp., to study the effect of preservatives, and chemicals on the growth of pathogenic Vibrio spp. and to employ polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods for the detection of pathogenic V ibrio spp.Samples of water (n=7) and post-larvae (n=7) were obtained from seven Penaeus monodon hatcheries and samples of water (n=5), sediment (n=5) and shrimp (n=5) were obtained from five P. monodon aquaculture farms located on the East Coast of lndia. The microbiological examination of water, sediment, post-larvae and shrimp samples was carried out employing standard methods and by using standard media.The higher bacterial loads were obtained in pond sediments which can be attributed to the accumulation of organic matter at the pond bottom which stimulated bacterial growth.Shrimp head. (4.78 x 105 +/- 3.0 x 104 cfu/g) had relatively higher bacterial load when compared to shrimp muscle 2.7 x 105 +/- 1.95 x 104 cfu/g). ln shrimp hatchery samples, the post-larvae (2.2 x 106 +/- 1.9 x 106 cfu/g) had higher bacterial load than water (5.6 x 103 +/- 3890 cfu/ml).The mean E.coli counts were higher in aquaculture pond sediment (204+/-13 cfu/g) and pond water (124+/-88 cfu/ml). Relatively lower Escherichia coli counts were obtained from shrimp samples (12+/-11 to 16+/-16.7 cfu/g). The presence of E.coli in aquaculture environment might have been from the source water. E.coli was not detected in hatchery waters and post-larvae.

Studies on seed pathology and seedling diseases of some important indigenous tree species of kerala

In forestry, availability of healthy seeds is an important factor in raising planting stock. Initial seed health and storage conditions are the major factors governing the germinability of seeds. Like seeds of agricultural and horticultural crops, forest tree seeds are also liable to be affected by micro-organisms during storage, which affects the germination, and reduces the viability. Further introduction of seed-borne diseases into newly sown crops/areas on account of using unhealthy seeds is also not ruled out. Availability of healthy stock of seedlings is intrinsic for raising plantations and to meet this requirement elimination of nursery diseases by appropriate chemicals is of prime imortance. As exotic tree species may become susceptible to various native pathogens, it is generally considered better to select indigenous tree species for large scale plantations as they are well adapted to local environment. However, before taking up large scale afforestation progranme involving any indigenous tree species, it is essential to have knowledge about seed disorders and seedling diseases and their management. with a View to select appropriate tree species with fewer seed disorders and seedling disease problems for use in further plantation programme, four indigenous tree species such as Albizia odoratissima (L.f) Benth., Lagerstroemia microcazpa Wt., Pterocazpus marsupiwn Roxb. and Xylia xylocarpa (Roxb.) Taub. were evaluated to meet the above parameters

Isolation and characterization of broad spectrum bacteriophages lytic to Vibrio harveyi from shrimp farms of Kerala, India

Of 33 phages isolated from various shrimp farms in Kerala, India, six were segregated to have broad spectrum lytic efficiency towards 87 isolates of Vibrio harveyi with cross-infecting potential to a few other important aquaculture pathogens. They were further tested on beneficial aquaculture micro-organisms such as probiotics and nitrifying bacterial consortia and proved to be noninfective. Morphological characterization by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and molecular characterization by RAPD and SDS-PAGE proved them distinct and positioned under Caudovirales belonging to Myoviridae and Siphoviridae

A Novel Decision Tree Algorithm for Numeric Datasets - C 4.5*Stat

Decision trees are very powerful tools for classification in data mining tasks that involves different types of attributes. When coming to handling numeric data sets, usually they are converted first to categorical types and then classified using information gain concepts. Information gain is a very popular and useful concept which tells you, whether any benefit occurs after splitting with a given attribute as far as information content is concerned. But this process is computationally intensive for large data sets. Also popular decision tree algorithms like ID3 cannot handle numeric data sets. This paper proposes statistical variance as an alternative to information gain as well as statistical mean to split attributes in completely numerical data sets. The new algorithm has been proved to be competent with respect to its information gain counterpart C4.5 and competent with many existing decision tree algorithms against the standard UCI benchmarking datasets using the ANOVA test in statistics. The specific advantages of this proposed new algorithm are that it avoids the computational overhead of information gain computation for large data sets with many attributes, as well as it avoids the conversion to categorical data from huge numeric data sets which also is a time consuming task. So as a summary, huge numeric datasets can be directly submitted to this algorithm without any attribute mappings or information gain computations. It also blends the two closely related fields statistics and data mining

Prediction of Learning Disabilities in School Age Children using SVM and Decision Tree

This paper highlights the prediction of Learning Disabilities (LD) in school-age children using two classification methods, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT), with an emphasis on applications of data mining. About 10% of children enrolled in school have a learning disability. Learning disability prediction in school age children is a very complicated task because it tends to be identified in elementary school where there is no one sign to be identified. By using any of the two classification methods, SVM and DT, we can easily and accurately predict LD in any child. Also, we can determine the merits and demerits of these two classifiers and the best one can be selected for the use in the relevant field. In this study, Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) algorithm is used in performing SVM and J48 algorithm is used in constructing decision trees.