Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Modelling and Analysis of Some Time Series

The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.

Time Resolved Analysis of C2 Emission from Laser Induced Graphite Plasma in Helium Atmosphere

We report time resolved study of C2 emission from laser produced carbon plasma in presence of ambient helium gas. The 1.06µm: radiation from a Nd:YAG laser was focused onto a graphite target where it·produced a transient plasma. We observed double peak structure in the time profile of C2 species. The twin peaks were observed only after a threshold laser fluence. It is proposed that the faster velocity component in the temporal profiles originates mainly due to recombination processes. The laser fluence and ambient gas dependence of the double peak intensity distribution is also reported.

Spatial and time resolved analysis of CN bands in the laser induced plasma from graphite

Analysis of the emission bands of the CN molecules in the plasma generated from a graphite target irradiated with 1-06/~m radiation pulses from a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser has been done. Depending on the position of the sampled volume of the plasma plume, the intensity distribution in the emission spectra is found to change drastically. The vibrational temperature and population distribution in the different vibrational levels have been studied as function of distance from the target for different time delays with respect to the incidence of the laser pulse. The translational temperature calculated from time of flight is found to be higher than the observed vibrational temperature for CN molecules and the reason for this is explained.

Recurrence Quantification Analysis of System Signals for Detecting Tool and Chatter in Turning

In this thesis, the applications of the recurrence quantification analysis in metal cutting operation in a lathe, with specific objective to detect tool wear and chatter, are presented.This study is based on the discovery that process dynamics in a lathe is low dimensional chaotic. It implies that the machine dynamics is controllable using principles of chaos theory. This understanding is to revolutionize the feature extraction methodologies used in condition monitoring systems as conventional linear methods or models are incapable of capturing the critical and strange behaviors associated with the metal cutting process.As sensor based approaches provide an automated and cost effective way to monitor and control, an efficient feature extraction methodology based on nonlinear time series analysis is much more demanding. The task here is more complex when the information has to be deduced solely from sensor signals since traditional methods do not address the issue of how to treat noise present in real-world processes and its non-stationarity. In an effort to get over these two issues to the maximum possible, this thesis adopts the recurrence quantification analysis methodology in the study since this feature extraction technique is found to be robust against noise and stationarity in the signals.The work consists of two different sets of experiments in a lathe; set-I and set-2. The experiment, set-I, study the influence of tool wear on the RQA variables whereas the set-2 is carried out to identify the sensitive RQA variables to machine tool chatter followed by its validation in actual cutting. To obtain the bounds of the spectrum of the significant RQA variable values, in set-i, a fresh tool and a worn tool are used for cutting. The first part of the set-2 experiments uses a stepped shaft in order to create chatter at a known location. And the second part uses a conical section having a uniform taper along the axis for creating chatter to onset at some distance from the smaller end by gradually increasing the depth of cut while keeping the spindle speed and feed rate constant.The study concludes by revealing the dependence of certain RQA variables; percent determinism, percent recurrence and entropy, to tool wear and chatter unambiguously. The performances of the results establish this methodology to be viable for detection of tool wear and chatter in metal cutting operation in a lathe. The key reason is that the dynamics of the system under study have been nonlinear and the recurrence quantification analysis can characterize them adequately.This work establishes that principles and practice of machining can be considerably benefited and advanced from using nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory.

Threshold Autoregressive Model for a Time Series Data

In this paper we try to fit a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to time series data of monthly coconut oil prices at Cochin market. The procedure proposed by Tsay [7] for fitting the TAR model is briefly presented. The fitted model is compared with a simple autoregressive (AR) model. The results are in favour of TAR process. Thus the monthly coconut oil prices exhibit a type of non-linearity which can be accounted for by a threshold model.

Analysis of System Signals Based on Cross Recurrence Method for System Dynamics Characterization

Natural systems are inherently non linear. Recurrent behaviours are typical of natural systems. Recurrence is a fundamental property of non linear dynamical systems which can be exploited to characterize the system behaviour effectively. Cross recurrence based analysis of sensor signals from non linear dynamical system is presented in this thesis. The mutual dependency among relatively independent components of a system is referred as coupling. The analysis is done for a mechanically coupled system specifically designed for conducting experiment. Further, cross recurrence method is extended to the actual machining process in a lathe to characterize the chatter during turning. The result is verified by permutation entropy method. Conventional linear methods or models are incapable of capturing the critical and strange behaviours associated with the dynamical process. Hence any effective feature extraction methodologies should invariably gather information thorough nonlinear time series analysis. The sensor signals from the dynamical system normally contain noise and non stationarity. In an effort to get over these two issues to the maximum possible extent, this work adopts the cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) methodology since it is found to be robust against noise and stationarity in the signals. The study reveals that the CRQA is capable of characterizing even weak coupling among system signals. It also divulges the dependence of certain CRQA variables like percent determinism, percent recurrence and entropy to chatter unambiguously. The surrogate data test shows that the results obtained by CRQA are the true properties of the temporal evolution of the dynamics and contain a degree of deterministic structure. The results are verified using permutation entropy (PE) to detect the onset of chatter from the time series. The present study ascertains that this CRP based methodology is capable of recognizing the transition from regular cutting to the chatter cutting irrespective of the machining parameters or work piece material. The results establish this methodology to be feasible for detection of chatter in metal cutting operation in a lathe.

ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.