South-West Monsoon Rainfall of Kerala and Its Variability

This study focuses on the south –west monsoon rainfall over Kerala and its variability both on the spatial and temporal scales. The main objectives of the study are, interanual, long-term and decadal variabilities in MRF(monsoon rain fall),relationship between antecedent global circulation parameters, diurnal variability using data of a large number of stations in Kerala and the spatial distribution of rainfall under two large scale synoptic. Kerala gets nearly 190cm of rainfall during the south-west monsoon season 1st June to 30th September. This is more than twice the monsoon rainfall of India. A good part of kerala’s rainfall is caused by the orography of the Western Ghats Mountain ranges. The state receives 286cm of annual rainfall of which 68%is during the south-west monsoon season. The summer monsoon rainfall of Kerala shows a decreasing trend of 12.0%in 96 years. The study shows that the Intra Seasonal Oscillations(ISO) of the monsoon season has large interanual variability,some years having long period and other years having short period ISO. It is seen that Western Ghats has a strong control on the east west profile on the monsoon rainfall.

Studies on rainfall variability and the influence of orography and land use on the climate of Peninsular India

The present study helped to understand the trend in rainfall patterns at smaller spatial scales and the large regional differences in the variability of rainfall. The effect of land use and orography on the diurnal variability is also understood. But a better understanding on the long term variation in rainfall is possible by using a longer dataset,which may provide insight into the rainfall variation over country during the past century. The basic mechanism behind the interannual rainfall variability would be possible with numerical studies using coupled Ocean-Atmosphere models. The regional difference in the active-break conditions points to the significance of regional studies than considering India as a single unit. The underlying dynamics of diurnal variability need to be studied by making use of a high resolution model as the present study could not simulate the local onshore circulation. Also the land use modification in this study, selected a region, which is surrounded by crop land. This implies the high possibility for the conversion of the remaining region to agricultural land. Therefore the study is useful than considering idealized conditions, but the adverse effect of irrigated crop is more than non-irrigated crop. Therefore, such studies would help to understand the climate changes occurred in the recent period. The large accumulation of rainfall between 300-600 m height of western Ghats has been found but the reason behind this need to be studied, which is possible by utilizing datasets that would better represent the orography and landuse over the region in high resolution model. Similarly a detailed analysis is needed to clearly identify the causative relations of the predictors identified with the predictant and the physical reasons behind them. New approaches that include nonlinear relationships and dynamical variables from model simulations can be included in the existing statistical models to improve the skill of the models. Also the statistical models for the forecasts of monsoon have to be continually updated.

Rainfall Climatology over Middle East Region and its Variability

A better understanding of the rainfall climatology of the Middle East region identifying the mechanisms responsible for the rain producing systems is essential for effective utilization of the water resources over the arid region. A comprehensive analysis on the rainfall climatology of the Middle East region is carried out to bring out the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and mechanisms responsible for the rain events. The study was carried out utilizing rainfall, OLR, wind and humidity data sets procured from TRMM, NOAA and NCEP-NCAR. Climatology of annual rainfall brings out two areas of alarmingly low rainfall in the Middle East region: one in Egypt, Jordan and adjoining areas and the other in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. Daily rainfall analysis indicates that northern region gets rainfall mainly during winter and spring associated with the passage of Mediterranean low pressure systems whereas rain over the southern region is caused mainly by the monsoon organized convection, cross equatorial flow and remnants of low pressure systems associated with the monsoon during the summer season. Thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere reveals that the region does not have frequent local convection due to insufficient moisture content. The sinking motion associated with the sub tropic high pressure system and subsidence associated with the Walker circulation are responsible for maintaining warm and dry air over the region.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of rain intensity in the peninsular Malaysia using TRMM rain rate

The present study is focused on the intensity distribution of rainfall in different classes and their contribution to the total seasonal rainfall. In addition, we studied the spatial and diurnal variation of the rainfall in the study areas. For the present study, we retrieved data from TRMM (Tropical Rain Measuring Mission) rain rate available in every 3 h temporal and 25 km spatial resolutions. Moreover, station rainfall data is used to validate the TRMM rain rate and found significant correlation between them (linear correlation coefficients are 0.96, 0.85, 0.75 and 0.63 for the stations Kota Bharu, Senai, Cameron highlands and KLIA, respectively). We selected four areas in the Peninsular Malaysia and they are south coastal, east coastal, west coastal and highland regions. Diurnal variation of frequency of rain occurrence is different for different locations. We noticed bimodal variation in the coastal areas in most of the seasons and unimodal variation in the highland/inland area. During the southwest monsoon period in the west coastal stations, there is no distinct diurnal variation. The distribution of different intensity classes during different seasons are explained in detail in the results

Long term trends of seasonal and monthly rainfall in different intensity ranges over Indian subcontinent

In general Indian summer monsoon rainfall did not show any significant trend in all Indian summer monsoon rainfall series, however, it was reported that the ISMR is subjected to spatial trends. This paper made an attempt to bring out long term trends of different intensity classes of summer monsoon rainfall in different regions of Indian subcontinent. The long term trend of seasonal and monthly rainfall were also made using the India Meteorological Department gridded daily rainfall data with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid for the period from 1st January, 1901 to 31st December, 2003. The summer monsoon rainfall shows an increasing trend in southeast, northwest and northeast regions, whereas decreasing trend in the central and west coastal regions. In monthly scale, July rainfall shows decreasing trend over west coastal and central Indian regions and significant increasing trend over northeast region at 0.1% significant level. During the month August, decreasing trend is observed in the west coastal stations at 10% significant level. In most of the stations, mean daily rainfall shows an increasing trend for low and very high intense rainfall. For the moderate rainfall, the trend is different for different regions. In the central and southern regions the trend of moderate and moderately high classes show increasing trend. And for the high and very high intensity classes, the trend is decreasing significantly. In the northeastern regions, above 10 mm/day rainfall shows significantly increasing trend with 0.1% significant level.