Agent Based Evacuation Simulation Using Leader-Follower Model

Agent based simulation is a widely developing area in artificial intelligence.The simulation studies are extensively used in different areas of disaster management. This work deals with the study of an agent based evacuation simulation which is being done to handle the various evacuation behaviors.Various emergent behaviors of agents are addressed here. Dynamic grouping behaviors of agents are studied. Collision detection and obstacle avoidances are also incorporated in this approach.Evacuation is studied with single exits and multiple exits and efficiency is measured in terms of evacuation rate, collision rate etc.Net logo is the tool used which helps in the efficient modeling of scenarios in evacuation

Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Computationally Efficient Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Returns and Volatilities in ARCH and GARCH Processes

We propose a novel, simple, efficient and distribution-free re-sampling technique for developing prediction intervals for returns and volatilities following ARCH/GARCH models. In particular, our key idea is to employ a Box–Jenkins linear representation of an ARCH/GARCH equation and then to adapt a sieve bootstrap procedure to the nonlinear GARCH framework. Our simulation studies indicate that the new re-sampling method provides sharp and well calibrated prediction intervals for both returns and volatilities while reducing computational costs by up to 100 times, compared to other available re-sampling techniques for ARCH/GARCH models. The proposed procedure is illustrated by an application to Yen/U.S. dollar daily exchange rate data.

Modelling and Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Multiple Causes

This thesis Entitled “modelling and analysis of recurrent event data with multiple causes.Survival data is a term used for describing data that measures the time to occurrence of an event.In survival studies, the time to occurrence of an event is generally referred to as lifetime.Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies when individuals are followed to observe the repeated occurrences of certain events. In many practical situations, individuals under study are exposed to the failure due to more than one causes and the eventual failure can be attributed to exactly one of these causes.The proposed model was useful in real life situations to study the effect of covariates on recurrences of certain events due to different causes.In Chapter 3, an additive hazards model for gap time distributions of recurrent event data with multiple causes was introduced. The parameter estimation and asymptotic properties were discussed .In Chapter 4, a shared frailty model for the analysis of bivariate competing risks data was presented and the estimation procedures for shared gamma frailty model, without covariates and with covariates, using EM algorithm were discussed. In Chapter 6, two nonparametric estimators for bivariate survivor function of paired recurrent event data were developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimators were studied. The proposed estimators were applied to a real life data set. Simulation studies were carried out to find the efficiency of the proposed estimators.

Underwater Target Localization, Tracking and Classification

Underwater target localization and tracking attracts tremendous research interest due to various impediments to the estimation task caused by the noisy ocean environment. This thesis envisages the implementation of a prototype automated system for underwater target localization, tracking and classification using passive listening buoy systems and target identification techniques. An autonomous three buoy system has been developed and field trials have been conducted successfully. Inaccuracies in the localization results, due to changes in the environmental parameters, measurement errors and theoretical approximations are refined using the Kalman filter approach. Simulation studies have been conducted for the tracking of targets with different scenarios even under maneuvering situations. This system can as well be used for classifying the unknown targets by extracting the features of the noise emanations from the targets.

Studies Using Computer Simulation Models to Solve Problems Related to Logistics Terminals

This thesis deals with the use of simulation as a problem-solving tool to solve a few logistic system related problems. More specifically it relates to studies on transport terminals. Transport terminals are key elements in the supply chains of industrial systems. One of the problems related to use of simulation is that of the multiplicity of models needed to study different problems. There is a need for development of methodologies related to conceptual modelling which will help reduce the number of models needed. Three different logistic terminal systems Viz. a railway yard, container terminal of apart and airport terminal were selected as cases for this study. The standard methodology for simulation development consisting of system study and data collection, conceptual model design, detailed model design and development, model verification and validation, experimentation, and analysis of results, reporting of finding were carried out. We found that models could be classified into tightly pre-scheduled, moderately pre-scheduled and unscheduled systems. Three types simulation models( called TYPE 1, TYPE 2 and TYPE 3) of various terminal operations were developed in the simulation package Extend. All models were of the type discrete-event simulation. Simulation models were successfully used to help solve strategic, tactical and operational problems related to three important logistic terminals as set in our objectives. From the point of contribution to conceptual modelling we have demonstrated that clubbing problems into operational, tactical and strategic and matching them with tightly pre-scheduled, moderately pre-scheduled and unscheduled systems is a good workable approach which reduces the number of models needed to study different terminal related problems.

Optical absorption studies in ion implanted and amorphous semiconductors - Investigations in some tetrahedrally co-ordinated and chalcogenide materials

The thesis provides an overall review and introduction to amorphous semiconductors, followed by a brief discussion on the important structural models proposed for chalcogenide glasses and their electrical, optional and thermal properties. It also gives a brief description of the Physics of thin films, ion implantation and Photothermal Deflection Spectroscopy. A brief description of the experimental setup of a photothermal deflection spectrometer and the details of the preparation and optical characterization of the thin film samples. It deals with the employment of the subgap optional absorption measurement by PDS to characterize the defects, amorphization and annealing behavior in silicon implanted with B+ ions and the profiles of ion range and vacancy distribution obtained by the TRIM simulation. It reports the results of all absorption measurements by PDS in nitrogen implanted thin film samples of Ge-Se and As-Se systems

Studies on Some Aspects of Light Beam Propagation Through Certain Nonlinear Media

This thesis deals with the study of light beam propagation through different nonlinear media. Analytical and numerical methods are used to show the formation of solitonS in these media. Basic experiments have also been performed to show the formation of a self-written waveguide in a photopolymer. The variational method is used for the analytical analysis throughout the thesis. Numerical method based on the finite-difference forms of the original partial differential equation is used for the numerical analysis.In Chapter 2, we have studied two kinds of solitons, the (2 + 1) D spatial solitons and the (3 + l)D spatio-temporal solitons in a cubic-quintic medium in the presence of multiphoton ionization.In Chapter 3, we have studied the evolution of light beam through a different kind of nonlinear media, the photorcfractive polymer. We study modulational instability and beam propagation through a photorefractive polymer in the presence of absorption losses. The one dimensional beam propagation through the nonlinear medium is studied using variational and numerical methods. Stable soliton propagation is observed both analytically and numerically.Chapter 4 deals with the study of modulational instability in a photorefractive crystal in the presence of wave mixing effects. Modulational instability in a photorefractive medium is studied in the presence of two wave mixing. We then propose and derive a model for forward four wave mixing in the photorefractive medium and investigate the modulational instability induced by four wave mixing effects. By using the standard linear stability analysis the instability gain is obtained.Chapter 5 deals with the study of self-written waveguides. Besides the usual analytical analysis, basic experiments were done showing the formation of self-written waveguide in a photopolymer system. The formation of a directional coupler in a photopolymer system is studied theoretically in Chapter 6. We propose and study, using the variational approximation as well as numerical simulation, the evolution of a probe beam through a directional coupler formed in a photopolymer system.

Numerical Simulation of Two-Part Underwater Towing System

The motion instability is an important issue that occurs during the operation of towed underwater vehicles (TUV), which considerably affects the accuracy of high precision acoustic instrumentations housed inside the same. Out of the various parameters responsible for this, the disturbances from the tow-ship are the most significant one. The present study focus on the motion dynamics of an underwater towing system with ship induced disturbances as the input. The study focus on an innovative system called two-part towing. The methodology involves numerical modeling of the tow system, which consists of modeling of the tow-cables and vehicles formulation. Previous study in this direction used a segmental approach for the modeling of the cable. Even though, the model was successful in predicting the heave response of the tow-body, instabilities were observed in the numerical solution. The present study devises a simple approach called lumped mass spring model (LMSM) for the cable formulation. In this work, the traditional LMSM has been modified in two ways. First, by implementing advanced time integration procedures and secondly, use of a modified beam model which uses only translational degrees of freedoms for solving beam equation. A number of time integration procedures, such as Euler, Houbolt, Newmark and HHT-α were implemented in the traditional LMSM and the strength and weakness of each scheme were numerically estimated. In most of the previous studies, hydrodynamic forces acting on the tow-system such as drag and lift etc. are approximated as analytical expression of velocities. This approach restricts these models to use simple cylindrical shaped towed bodies and may not be applicable modern tow systems which are diversed in shape and complexity. Hence, this particular study, hydrodynamic parameters such as drag and lift of the tow-system are estimated using CFD techniques. To achieve this, a RANS based CFD code has been developed. Further, a new convection interpolation scheme for CFD simulation, called BNCUS, which is blend of cell based and node based formulation, was proposed in the study and numerically tested. To account for the fact that simulation takes considerable time in solving fluid dynamic equations, a dedicated parallel computing setup has been developed. Two types of computational parallelisms are explored in the current study, viz; the model for shared memory processors and distributed memory processors. In the present study, shared memory model was used for structural dynamic analysis of towing system, distributed memory one was devised in solving fluid dynamic equations.

Preparation, magnetic and EPR spectral studies of copper(II) complexes of an anticancer drug analogue

Ten new copper(II) complexes of five potential bisthiocarbohydrazone and biscarbohydrazone ligands were synthesized and physico-chemically characterized. The spectral and magnetic studies of compounds are consistent with the formation of asymmetric di-, tri- or tetranuclear copper(II) complexes of deprotonated forms of respective ligands. The variable temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements of all complexes showantiferromagnetic interactions between the Cu(II) centers, in agreement with very broad powder EPR spectra. However, frozen solution EPR spectral studies are found in contradiction with the solid-state magnetic studies and indicate that the complexes are not very stable in solutions; the possible fragmentations of complexes are found in agreement with MALDI MS results. The EPR spectral simulation of most of the compounds is in agreement with the presence of two uncoupled Cu(II) species in solution.

Some Aspects of Domain Specific Conceptual Modeling for Simulation of Logistic Terminal Operations

When simulation modeling is used for performance improvement studies of complex systems such as transport terminals, domain specific conceptual modeling constructs could be used by modelers to create structured models. A two stage procedure which includes identification of the problem characteristics/cluster - ‘knowledge acquisition’ and identification of standard models for the problem cluster – ‘model abstraction’ was found to be effective in creating structured models when applied to certain logistic terminal systems. In this paper we discuss some methods and examples related the knowledge acquisition and model abstraction stages for the development of three different types of model categories of terminal systems