Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Influence of short term climatic fluctuations on the agricultural land use in Kerala

In the present study, the land use over Kerala State and its spatial and temporal variations, spatio-temporal variations of water budget elements, climatic shifts, incidence of droughts and the influence of inter-annual fluctuations of rainfall on area. production and yield of selected crops, have been studied in detail. The thesis consists of seven chapters including the introduction. The first section of the Second Chapter deals with the importance of agrocliinatological studies in general and its application in agricultural land use in particular. It also gives an overview of the short term climatic fluctuations, water balance studies, crop weather relationships, land use patterns and various agricultural indices. This includes a detailed review of available literature in this field. The basic concepts. data used and the methodology adopted in the study forms, the second section of this Chapter. The Third Chapter gives the details of the physical features of the State such as the relief, geology, geomorphologysoils, drainage, and vegetation. The agroclimatology of the State is discussed in detail in Chapter Four. The first Section presents annual and seasonal variations of temperature and rainfall of the State along with a discussion on the water balance of the State. The secondSection of this Chapter deals with the influence of rainfall and water balance elements on various crops. The district-wise general land use pattern of theState and its spatio-temporal variations are discussed in Chapter Five. The first Section of Chapter Six gives an overview of the agricultural land use pattern of the State, cropping patterns, cropping intensity, crop combination and their spatio-temporal variations. The inter-annual variability of water balances of various stations of the State computed using the method of Thornthwaite (1948) and Thornthwaite & Mather (1955) is presented in the second Section of Chapter Six. This also includes a discussion of how the climatic shifts have occurred over the State and the influence of variations of climatic and water balance elements on the crops. The Seventh Chapter gives the summary of the work carried out and the results obtained from the study. Interpretations of the results, conclusions and suggestions made,based on the observations of the study are incorporated in this Chapter.

Studies on Energy Exchange and Upper Ocean Thermat Structure in Arabian Sea and Heat Transport in Northern Indian Ocean

The thesis focused Studies on Energy Exchange and Upper Ocean Thermal Structure in Arabian Sea and Heat Transport in Northern Indian Ocean. The present thesis is an attempt to understand the upper ocean thermal characteristics at selected areas in the western and eastern Arabian Sea in relation to surface energy exchange and dynamics, on a climatological basis. It is also aimed to examine, the relative importance of different processes in the evolution of SST at the western and eastern Arabian Sea. Short-term variations of energy exchange and upper ocean thermal structure are also investigated. Climatological studies of upper ocean thermal structure and surface energy exchange in the western and eastern parts of Arabian Sea bring out the similarities/differences and the causative factors for the observed features. Annual variation of zonally averaged heat advection in north Indian Ocean shows that maximum export of about 100 W/m2 occurs around 15ON during southwest monsoon season. This is due to large negative heat storage caused by intense upwelling in several parts of northern Indian Ocean. By and large, northern Indian Ocean is an area of heat export