Stability of Random Sums and Extremes

This study is about the stability of random sums and extremes.The difficulty in finding exact sampling distributions resulted in considerable problems of computing probabilities concerning the sums that involve a large number of terms.Functions of sample observations that are natural interest other than the sum,are the extremes,that is , the minimum and the maximum of the observations.Extreme value distributions also arise in problems like the study of size effect on material strengths,the reliability of parallel and series systems made up of large number of components,record values and assessing the levels of air pollution.It may be noticed that the theories of sums and extremes are mutually connected.For instance,in the search for asymptotic normality of sums ,it is assumed that at least the variance of the population is finite.In such cases the contributions of the extremes to the sum of independent and identically distributed(i.i.d) r.vs is negligible.

Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Stochastic processes and their applications time dependent solutions for some queueing and inventory models

The objective of this thesis is to study the time dependent behaviour of some complex queueing and inventory models. It contains a detailed analysis of the basic stochastic processes underlying these models. In the theory of queues, analysis of time dependent behaviour is an area.very little developed compared to steady state theory. Tine dependence seems certainly worth studying from an application point of view but unfortunately, the analytic difficulties are considerable. Glosod form solutions are complicated even for such simple models as M/M /1. Outside M/>M/1, time dependent solutions have been found only in special cases and involve most often double transforms which provide very little insight into the behaviour of the queueing systems themselves. In inventory theory also There is not much results available giving the time dependent solution of the system size probabilities. Our emphasis is on explicit results free from all types of transforms and the method used may be of special interest to a wide variety of problems having regenerative structure.

Stochastic processes and their applications semi-markov analysis of some inventory and queuing problems

This thesis analyses certain problems in Inventories and Queues. There are many situations in real-life where we encounter models as described in this thesis. It analyses in depth various models which can be applied to production, storag¢, telephone traffic, road traffic, economics, business administration, serving of customers, operations of particle counters and others. Certain models described here is not a complete representation of the true situation in all its complexity, but a simplified version amenable to analysis. While discussing the models, we show how a dependence structure can be suitably introduced in some problems of Inventories and Queues. Continuous review, single commodity inventory systems with Markov dependence structure introduced in the demand quantities, replenishment quantities and reordering levels are considered separately. Lead time is assumed to be zero in these models. An inventory model involving random lead time is also considered (Chapter-4). Further finite capacity single server queueing systems with single/bulk arrival, single/bulk services are also discussed. In some models the server is assumed to go on vacation (Chapters 7 and 8). In chapters 5 and 6 a sort of dependence is introduced in the service pattern in some queuing models.

Synthesis and Photoluminescence Properties of Novel Red Phosphors for White Light Emitting Diode Applications

Several series of Eu3+ based red emitting phosphor materials were synthesized using solid state reaction route and their properties were characterized. The present studies primarily investigated the photoluminescence properties of Eu3+ in a family of closely related host structure with a general formula Ln3MO7. The results presented in the previous chapters throws light to a basic understanding of the structure, phase formation and the photoluminescence properties of these compounds and their co-relations. The variation in the Eu3+ luminescence properties with different M cations was studied in Gd3-xMO7 (M = Nb, Sb, Ta) system.More ordering in the host lattice and more uniform distribution of Eu3+ ions resulting in the increased emission properties were observed in tantalate system.Influence of various lanthanide ion (Lu, Y, Gd, La) substitutions on the Eu3+ photoluminescence properties in Ln3MO7 host structures was also studied. The difference in emission profiles with different Ln ions demonstrated the influence of long range ordering, coordination of cations and ligand polarizability in the emission probabilities, intensity and quantum efficiency of these phosphor materials. Better luminescence of almost equally competing intensities from all the 4f transitions of Eu3+ was noticed for La3TaO7 system. Photoluminescence properties were further improved in La3TaO7 : Eu3+ phosphors by the incorporation of Ba2+ ions in La3+ site. New red phosphor materials Gd2-xGaTaO7 : xEu3+ exhibiting intense red emissions under UV excitation were prepared. Optimum doping level of Eu3+ in these different host lattices were experimentally determined. Some of the prepared samples exhibited higher emission intensities than the standard Y2O3 : Eu3+ red phosphors. In the present studies, Eu3+ acts as a structural probe determining the coordination and symmetry of the atoms in the host lattice. Results from the photoluminescence studies combined with the powder XRD and Raman spectroscopy investigations helped in the determination of the correct crystal structures and phase formation of the prepared compounds. Thus the controversy regarding the space groups of these compounds could be solved to a great extent. The variation in the space groups with different cation substitutions were discussed. There was only limited understanding regarding the various influential parameters of the photoluminescence properties of phosphor materials. From the given studies, the dependence of photoluminescence properties on the crystal structure and ordering of the host lattice, site symmetries, polarizability of the ions, distortions around the activator ion, uniformity in the activator distribution, concentration of the activator ion etc. were explained. Although the presented work does not directly evidence any application, the materials developed in the studies can be used for lighting applications together with other components for LED lighting. All the prepared samples were well excitable under near UV radiation. La3TaO7 : 0.15Eu3+ phosphor with high efficiency and intense orange red emissions can be used as a potential red component for the realization of white light with better color rendering properties. Gd2GaTaO7 : Eu3+, Bi2+ red phosphors give good color purity matching to NTSC standards of red. Some of these compounds exhibited higher emission intensities than the standard Y2O3 : Eu3+ red phosphors. However thermal stability and electrical output using these compounds should be studied further before applications. Based on the studies in the closely related Ln3MO7 structures, some ideas on selecting better host lattice for improved luminescence properties could be drawn. Analyzing the CTB position and the number of emission splits, a general understanding on the doping sites can be obtained. These results could be helpful for phosphor designs in other host systems also, for enhanced emission intensity and efficiency.