Modelling and Analysis of Some Time Series

The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.

ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.

Speech Analysis using Modern Techniques of Nonlinear Dynamics

Medical fields requires fast, simple and noninvasive methods of diagnostic techniques. Several methods are available and possible because of the growth of technology that provides the necessary means of collecting and processing signals. The present thesis details the work done in the field of voice signals. New methods of analysis have been developed to understand the complexity of voice signals, such as nonlinear dynamics aiming at the exploration of voice signals dynamic nature. The purpose of this thesis is to characterize complexities of pathological voice from healthy signals and to differentiate stuttering signals from healthy signals. Efficiency of various acoustic as well as non linear time series methods are analysed. Three groups of samples are used, one from healthy individuals, subjects with vocal pathologies and stuttering subjects. Individual vowels/ and a continuous speech data for the utterance of the sentence "iruvarum changatimaranu" the meaning in English is "Both are good friends" from Malayalam language are recorded using a microphone . The recorded audio are converted to digital signals and are subjected to analysis.Acoustic perturbation methods like fundamental frequency (FO), jitter, shimmer, Zero Crossing Rate(ZCR) were carried out and non linear measures like maximum lyapunov exponent(Lamda max), correlation dimension (D2), Kolmogorov exponent(K2), and a new measure of entropy viz., Permutation entropy (PE) are evaluated for all three groups of the subjects. Permutation Entropy is a nonlinear complexity measure which can efficiently distinguish regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the change in dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. The results shows that nonlinear dynamical methods seem to be a suitable technique for voice signal analysis, due to the chaotic component of the human voice. Permutation entropy is well suited due to its sensitivity to uncertainties, since the pathologies are characterized by an increase in the signal complexity and unpredictability. Pathological groups have higher entropy values compared to the normal group. The stuttering signals have lower entropy values compared to the normal signals.PE is effective in charaterising the level of improvement after two weeks of speech therapy in the case of stuttering subjects. PE is also effective in characterizing the dynamical difference between healthy and pathological subjects. This suggests that PE can improve and complement the recent voice analysis methods available for clinicians. The work establishes the application of the simple, inexpensive and fast algorithm of PE for diagnosis in vocal disorders and stuttering subjects.

Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Threshold Autoregressive Model for a Time Series Data

In this paper we try to fit a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to time series data of monthly coconut oil prices at Cochin market. The procedure proposed by Tsay [7] for fitting the TAR model is briefly presented. The fitted model is compared with a simple autoregressive (AR) model. The results are in favour of TAR process. Thus the monthly coconut oil prices exhibit a type of non-linearity which can be accounted for by a threshold model.

The tautomerism, solvatochromism and non-linear optical properties of fluorescent 3-hydroxyquinoxaline-2-carboxalidine-4-aminoantipyrine

The Schiff base, 3-hydroxyquinoxaline-2-carboxalidine-4-aminoantipyrine, was synthesized by the condensation of 3-hydroxyquinoxaline-2-carboxaldehyde with 4-aminoantipyrine. HPLC, FT-IR and NMR spectral data revealed that the compound exists predominantly in the amide tautomeric form and exhibits both absorption and fluorescence solvatochromism, large stokes shift, two electron quasireversible redox behaviour and good thermal stability, with a glass transition temperature of 104oC. The third-order non-linear optical character was studied using open aperture Z-scan methodology employing 7 ns pulses at 532 nm. The third-order non-linear absorption coefficient, b, was 1.48 x 10-6 cm W-1 and the imaginary part of the third-order non-linear optical susceptibility, Im c(3), was 3.36 x10-10 esu. The optical limiting threshold for the compound was found to be 340 MW cm-2.

The tautomerism, solvatochromism and non-linear optical properties of fluorescent 3-hydroxyquinoxaline-2-carboxalidine-4-aminoantipyrine

The Schiff base, 3-hydroxyquinoxaline-2-carboxalidine-4-aminoantipyrine, was synthesized by the condensation of 3-hydroxyquinoxaline-2-carboxaldehyde with 4-aminoantipyrine. HPLC, FT-IR and NMR spectral data revealed that the compound exists predominantly in the amide tautomeric form and exhibits both absorption and fluorescence solvatochromism, large stokes shift, two electron quasireversible redox behaviour and good thermal stability, with a glass transition temperature of 104 oC. The third-order non-linear optical character was studied using open aperture Z-scan methodology employing 7 ns pulses at 532 nm. The third-order non-linear absorption coefficient, b, was 1.48 x 10-6 cm W-1 and the imaginary part of the third-order non-linear optical susceptibility, Im c(3), was 3.36x10-10 esu. The optical limiting threshold for the compound was found to be 340 MW cm-2.

Structural Characterization and Non-linear Optical Properties of Metal Complexes of Some Donor-Acceptor Substituted N-salicylidene-N' -aroylhydrazine Ligands

The present work deals with the complexation of Schiff bases of aroylhydrazines with various transition metal ions. The hydrazone systems selected for study have long 7I:-delocalized chain in the ligand molecule itself, which get intensified due to metal-to-ligand or ligand-to-metal charge transfer excitations upon coordination. Complexation with metal ions like copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese, iron, zinc and cadmium are tried. Various spectral techniques are employed for characterization. The structures of some complexes have been well established by single crystal X-ray diffraction studies. The nonIinaer optical studies of the ligands and complexes synthesized have been studied by hyper-Rayleigh scattering technique.The work is presented in seven chapters and the last one deals with summary and conclusion. One of the hydrazone system selected for study proved that it could give rise to polymeric metal complexes. Some of the copper, nickel, zinc and cadmium complexes showed non-linear optical activity. The NLO studies of manganese and iron showed negative result, may be due to the inversion centre of symmetry within the molecular lattice.

Some non- linear problems in theoretical physics

An immense variety of problems in theoretical physics are of the non-linear type. Non~linear partial differential equations (NPDE) have almost become the rule rather than an exception in diverse branches of physics such as fluid mechanics, field theory, particle physics, statistical physics and optics, and the construction of exact solutions of these equations constitutes one of the most vigorous activities in theoretical physics today. The thesis entitled ‘Some Non-linear Problems in Theoretical Physics’ addresses various aspects of this problem at the classical level. For obtaining exact solutions we have used mathematical tools like the bilinear operator method, base equation technique and similarity method with emphasis on its group theoretical aspects. The thesis deals with certain methods of finding exact solutions of a number of non-linear partial differential equations of importance to theoretical physics. Some of these new solutions are of relevance from the applications point of view in diverse branches such as elementary particle physics, field theory, solid state physics and non-linear optics and give some insight into the stable or unstable behavior of dynamical Systems The thesis consists of six chapters.

Fluid mechanics-non-linear waves studies on korteweg-de vries equations

In this thesis the author has presented qualitative studies of certain Kdv equations with variable coefficients. The well-known KdV equation is a model for waves propagating on the surface of shallow water of constant depth. This model is considered as fitting into waves reaching the shore. Renewed attempts have led to the derivation of KdV type equations in which the coefficients are not constants. Johnson's equation is one such equation. The researcher has used this model to study the interaction of waves. It has been found that three-wave interaction is possible, there is transfer of energy between the waves and the energy is not conserved during interaction.

Design and Synthesis of Donor-Acceptor Low Band Gap Copolymers for Photoconductive and Non-linear Optical Applications

The main focus of the present study was to develop ideal low band gap D-A copolymers for photoconducting and non-linear optical applications. This chapter summarizes the overall research work done. Designed copolymers were synthesized via direct arylation or Suzuki coupling reactions. Copolymers were characterized by theoretical and experimental methods. The suitability of these copolymers in photoconducting and optical limiting devices has been investigated.The results suggest that the copolymers investigated in the present study have a good non-linear optical response and are comparable to or even better than the D-A copolymers reported in the literature and hence could be chosen as ideal candidates with potential applications for non-linear optics. The results also show that the structures of the polymers have great impact on NLO properties. Copolymers studied here exhibits good optical limiting property at 532 nm wavelength due to two-photon absorption (TPA) process. The results revealed that the two copolymers, (P(EDOT-BTSe) and P(PH-TZ)) exhibited strong two-photon absorption and superior optical power limiting properties, which are much better than that of others.