6 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability

em Cochin University of Science


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The thesis entitled Studies on Thermal Structure in the Seas Around India. An attempt is made in this study to document the observed variability of thermal structure, both on seasonal and short-term scales, in the eastern Arabian Sea and southwestern Bay of Bengal, from the spatial and time series data sets from a reasonably strong data base. The present study has certain limitations. The mean temperatures are based on an uneven distribution of data in space and time. Some of the areas, although having a ‘full annual coverage, do not have adequate data for some months. Some portions in the area under study are having data gaps. The consistency and the coherence in the internal wave characteristics could not be examined due to non-availability of adequate data sets. The influence of generating mechanisms; other than winds and tides on the observed internal wave fields could not be ascertained due to lack of data. However, a comprehensive and intensive data collection can overcome these limitations. The deployment of moored buoys with arrays of sensors at different depths at some important locations for about 5 to 10 years can provide intensive and extensive data sets. This strong data base can afford to address the short-term and seasonal variability of thermal field and understand in detail the individual and collective influences of various physical and dynamical mechanisms responsible for such variability.

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Study on variable stars is an important topic of modern astrophysics. After the invention of powerful telescopes and high resolving powered CCD’s, the variable star data is accumulating in the order of peta-bytes. The huge amount of data need lot of automated methods as well as human experts. This thesis is devoted to the data analysis on variable star’s astronomical time series data and hence belong to the inter-disciplinary topic, Astrostatistics. For an observer on earth, stars that have a change in apparent brightness over time are called variable stars. The variation in brightness may be regular (periodic), quasi periodic (semi-periodic) or irregular manner (aperiodic) and are caused by various reasons. In some cases, the variation is due to some internal thermo-nuclear processes, which are generally known as intrinsic vari- ables and in some other cases, it is due to some external processes, like eclipse or rotation, which are known as extrinsic variables. Intrinsic variables can be further grouped into pulsating variables, eruptive variables and flare stars. Extrinsic variables are grouped into eclipsing binary stars and chromospheri- cal stars. Pulsating variables can again classified into Cepheid, RR Lyrae, RV Tauri, Delta Scuti, Mira etc. The eruptive or cataclysmic variables are novae, supernovae, etc., which rarely occurs and are not periodic phenomena. Most of the other variations are periodic in nature. Variable stars can be observed through many ways such as photometry, spectrophotometry and spectroscopy. The sequence of photometric observa- xiv tions on variable stars produces time series data, which contains time, magni- tude and error. The plot between variable star’s apparent magnitude and time are known as light curve. If the time series data is folded on a period, the plot between apparent magnitude and phase is known as phased light curve. The unique shape of phased light curve is a characteristic of each type of variable star. One way to identify the type of variable star and to classify them is by visually looking at the phased light curve by an expert. For last several years, automated algorithms are used to classify a group of variable stars, with the help of computers. Research on variable stars can be divided into different stages like observa- tion, data reduction, data analysis, modeling and classification. The modeling on variable stars helps to determine the short-term and long-term behaviour and to construct theoretical models (for eg:- Wilson-Devinney model for eclips- ing binaries) and to derive stellar properties like mass, radius, luminosity, tem- perature, internal and external structure, chemical composition and evolution. The classification requires the determination of the basic parameters like pe- riod, amplitude and phase and also some other derived parameters. Out of these, period is the most important parameter since the wrong periods can lead to sparse light curves and misleading information. Time series analysis is a method of applying mathematical and statistical tests to data, to quantify the variation, understand the nature of time-varying phenomena, to gain physical understanding of the system and to predict future behavior of the system. Astronomical time series usually suffer from unevenly spaced time instants, varying error conditions and possibility of big gaps. This is due to daily varying daylight and the weather conditions for ground based observations and observations from space may suffer from the impact of cosmic ray particles. Many large scale astronomical surveys such as MACHO, OGLE, EROS, xv ROTSE, PLANET, Hipparcos, MISAO, NSVS, ASAS, Pan-STARRS, Ke- pler,ESA, Gaia, LSST, CRTS provide variable star’s time series data, even though their primary intention is not variable star observation. Center for Astrostatistics, Pennsylvania State University is established to help the astro- nomical community with the aid of statistical tools for harvesting and analysing archival data. Most of these surveys releases the data to the public for further analysis. There exist many period search algorithms through astronomical time se- ries analysis, which can be classified into parametric (assume some underlying distribution for data) and non-parametric (do not assume any statistical model like Gaussian etc.,) methods. Many of the parametric methods are based on variations of discrete Fourier transforms like Generalised Lomb-Scargle peri- odogram (GLSP) by Zechmeister(2009), Significant Spectrum (SigSpec) by Reegen(2007) etc. Non-parametric methods include Phase Dispersion Minimi- sation (PDM) by Stellingwerf(1978) and Cubic spline method by Akerlof(1994) etc. Even though most of the methods can be brought under automation, any of the method stated above could not fully recover the true periods. The wrong detection of period can be due to several reasons such as power leakage to other frequencies which is due to finite total interval, finite sampling interval and finite amount of data. Another problem is aliasing, which is due to the influence of regular sampling. Also spurious periods appear due to long gaps and power flow to harmonic frequencies is an inherent problem of Fourier methods. Hence obtaining the exact period of variable star from it’s time series data is still a difficult problem, in case of huge databases, when subjected to automation. As Matthew Templeton, AAVSO, states “Variable star data analysis is not always straightforward; large-scale, automated analysis design is non-trivial”. Derekas et al. 2007, Deb et.al. 2010 states “The processing of xvi huge amount of data in these databases is quite challenging, even when looking at seemingly small issues such as period determination and classification”. It will be beneficial for the variable star astronomical community, if basic parameters, such as period, amplitude and phase are obtained more accurately, when huge time series databases are subjected to automation. In the present thesis work, the theories of four popular period search methods are studied, the strength and weakness of these methods are evaluated by applying it on two survey databases and finally a modified form of cubic spline method is intro- duced to confirm the exact period of variable star. For the classification of new variable stars discovered and entering them in the “General Catalogue of Vari- able Stars” or other databases like “Variable Star Index“, the characteristics of the variability has to be quantified in term of variable star parameters.

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The objectives of the present study are to provide a systematic descriptive documentation of the nature of air pollution of the Cochin industrial agglomeration, estimate the willingness to pay for morbidity reduction due to air pollution in observed and hypothetical markets and to estimate the value of welfare loss in the purchase of property due to reduced air quality. This study is an attempt to examine economic impacts of air pollution on the human health and property values in the industrial capital of Kerala. The process of industrialization in Kerala and the increase in air pollution created damages to human, natural and economic resources in the state. The study documents the extent of air pollution and applied econometric approaches to estimate economic impacts of air pollution on human health and property values. The Important sources of air pollution identified in Cochin are emissions from industries and automobiles.

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Condoms are widely accepted as a contraceptive for family planning and population control. It is also accepted as the most effective barrier against sexually transmitted diseases, especially AIDS, the incurable disease. But presence of pinholes and low film strength of condoms make it unsuitable for the purpose. Quality improvement of condoms by reducing the pinhole formation and increasing the film strength is thus an essential requirement for population control as well as for preventing the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Strict implementation of WHO specification of condoms further increases the rejection percentage. This causes higher rejection loss to condom manufacturers because the defects could be identified only at the final stage of processing. If the influence of various factors which cause these defects is known, manufacturers can take remedial measures to reduce the defectives so that rejection loss can be decreased and quality of condoms increased. In the present study, it was proposed to conduct experiments to improve the quality of condoms by reducing the pinhole rejection percentage and increasing the tensile properties, burst volume, and burst pressure. Ageing property improvement also was an important target among other parameters. Until a cure for AIDS is found, a high quality latex condom is the only effective device in the prevention of the spread of HIV, AIDS and STD's. Hence it is all the more necessary to have high quality condoms.

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Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man) and M.ide77a (Hilgendorf) form two commercially important Palaemonid prawns of the Vembanad lake (9 28' and 10 10’ N and 76 13' and 76 31' E). Both of them were known to have contributed to a very lucrative fishery during the sixties, however, in recent years these natural resources have badly depleted owing to the impact of many man made alterations brought about in the ecosystem such as habitat reduction, physical obstruction imposed in the migratory pathway of these species, pollution hazards, etc,. Changed environmental conditions and increased fishing pressures caused persistent alterations in the stock size of these prawns during the past so many years, however, no serious attempt was made to monitor the stock size from time to time and also to bring out the resource characteristics. Though, the morphotypic differentiation in grow out male population of M.rosenbergii has been documented, no similar studies were conducted with regard to natural male and female population. Based on the data collected during fishery cruise surveys conducted in Vembanad lake from March '94 to February '96, population characteristics. postlarval distribution, fishery and population dynamics of M.rosenbergii and M.ide77a of the lake were studied in detail.

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If magnetism is universal in nature, magnetic materials are ubiquitous. A life without magnetism is unthinkable and a day without the influence of a magnetic material is unimaginable. They find innumerable applications in the form of many passive and active devices namely, compass, electric motor, generator, microphone, loud speaker, maglev train, magnetic resonance imaging, data recording and reading, hadron collider etc. The list is endless. Such is the influence of magnetism and magnetic materials in ones day to day life. With the advent of nanoscience and nanotechnology, along with the emergence of new areas/fields such as spintronics, multiferroics and magnetic refrigeration, the importance of magnetism is ever increasing and attracting the attention of researchers worldwide. The search for a fluid which exhibits magnetism has been on for quite some time. However nature has not bestowed us with a magnetic fluid and hence it has been the dream of many researchers to synthesize a magnetic fluid which is thought to revolutionize many applications based on magnetism. The discovery of a magnetic fluid by Jacob Rabinow in the year 1952 paved the way for a new branch of Physics/Engineering which later became magnetic fluids. This gave birth to a new class of material called magnetorheological materials. Magnetorheological materials are considered superior to electrorheological materials in that magnetorheology is a contactless operation and often inexpensive.Most of the studies in the past on magnetorheological materials were based on magnetic fluids. Recently the focus has been on the solid state analogue of magnetic fluids which are called Magnetorheological Elastomers (MREs). The very word magnetorheological elastomer implies that the rheological properties of these materials can be altered by the influence of an external applied magnetic field and this process is reversible. If the application of an external magnetic field modifies the viscosity of a magnetic fluid, the effect of external magnetic stimuli on a magnetorheological elastomer is in the modification of its stiffness. They are reversible too. Magnetorheological materials exhibit variable stiffness and find applications in adaptive structures of aerospace, automotive civil and electrical engineering applications. The major advantage of MRE is that the particles are not able to settle with time and hence there is no need of a vessel to hold it. The possibility of hazardous waste leakage is no more with a solid MRE. Moreover, the particles in a solid MRE will not affect the performance and durability of the equipment. Usually MR solids work only in the pre yield region while MR fluids, typically work in the post yield state. The application of an external magnetic field modifies the stiffness constant, shear modulus and loss modulus which are complex quantities. In viscoelastic materials a part of the input energy is stored and released during each cycle and a part is dissipated as heat. The storage modulus G′ represents the capacity of the material to store energy of deformation, which contribute to material stiffness. The loss modulusG′′ represents the ability of the material to dissipate the energy of deformation. Such materials can find applications in the form of adaptive vibration absorbers (ATVAs), stiffness tunable mounts and variable impedance surfaces. MREs are an important material for automobile giants and became the focus of this research for eventual automatic vibration control, sound isolation, brakes, clutches and suspension systems