9 resultados para NCEP

em Cochin University of Science


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The aim of the present study is to understand the biennial scale stratosphere-troposphere interactions over India, and synoptic to interannual timescale meridional stratosphere-troposhere exchanges caused by upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric longwaves using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and satellite measured total ozone data. The biennial timescale interaction between lower stratosphere and troposphere over Thumba is analysed using high-resolution radiosonde data. The results suggest that TBO and QBO are two different phenomena with nearly biennial periodicity. Interannual timescale meridional stratosphere-troposphere exchanges caused by the newly documented Asia Pacific Wave (APW) were analysed using ozone as tracer of atmospheric motion. Synoptic timescale meridional stratosphere-troposhere exchanges caused by subtropical upper tropospheric long waves over Asia were studied using global total ozone measurements from TOMS. This research work can be extended to study the influence of decadal scale epochal nature in Indian summer monsoon activity on the APW generated total ozone anomalies around the globe and the trend estimates in total ozone

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The objective of the present study is to understand the spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature(SST), precipitable water, zonal and meridional components of wind stress over the tropical Indian Ocean to understand the different scales of variability of these features of Indian Ocean. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and wavelet analysis techniques are utilized to understand the standing oscillations and multi scale oscillations respectively. The study has been carried out over Indian Ocean and South Indian Ocean. For the present study, NCEP/NCAR(National Center for Environmental Prediction National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalyzed daily fields of sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface wind components and precipitable water amount during 1960-1998 are used. The principle of EOF analysis and the methodology used for the analysis of spatial and temporal variance modes.

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The present work is an attempt to understand the characteristics of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Asian summer monsoon region, more specifically over the Indian subcontinent. Mainly three important parameters are taken such as zonal wind, temperature and ozone over the UT/LS of the Asian summer monsoon region. It made a detailed study of its interannual variability and characteristics of theses parameters during the Indian summer monsoon period. Monthly values of zonal wind and temperature from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1960-2002 are used for the present study. Also the daily overpass total ozone data for the 12 Indian stations (from low latitude to high latitudes) from the TOMS Nimbus 7 satellite for the period 1979 to 1992 were also used to understand the total ozone variation over the Indian region. The study reveals that if QBO phases in the stratosphere is easterly or weak westerly then the respective monsoon is found to be DRY or below Normal . On the other hand, if the phase is westerly or weak easterly the respective Indian summer monsoon is noted as a WET year. This connection of stratospheric QBO phases and Indian summer monsoon gives more insight in to the long-term predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Wavelet analysis and EOF methods are the two advanced statistical techniques used in the present study to explore more information of the zonal wind that from the smaller scale to higher scale variability over the Asian summer monsoon region. The interannual variability of temperature for different stratospheric and tropospheric levels over the Asian summer monsoon region have been studied. An attempt has been made to understand the total ozone characteristics and its interannual variablilty over 12 Indian stations spread from south latitudes to north latitudes. Finally it found that the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere contribute significantly to monsoon variability and climate changes. It is also observed that there exists a link between the stratospheric QBO and Indian summer monsoon

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The aim of the present study is to understand the characteristics and properties of different wave modes and the vertical circulation pattern in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over Indian region using data obtained from the Indian Mesosphere-Stratosphere Troposphere (MST) radar, National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Centres of Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysed data and radiosonde observations.Studies on the vertical motion in monsoon Hadley circulation are carried out and the results are discussed . From the analysis of MST radar data, an overall picture of vertical motion of air over Indian region is explained and noted that there exists sinking motion both during winter and summer. Besides, the study shows that there is an anomalous northerly wind in the troposphere over the southern peninsular region during southwest monsoon season.The outcome of the study on intrusion of mid-latitude upper tropospheric trough and associated synoptic-scale vertical velocity over the tropical Indian latitudes are reported and discussed . It shows that there is interaction between north Indian latitudes and tropical easterly region, when there is an eastward movement of Western Disturbance across the country. It explains the strengthening of westerlies and a change of winter westerlies into easterlies in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere. The divergence field computed over the MST radar station shows intensification in the downward motion in association with the synoptic systems of the northwest Indian region.

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A better understanding of the rainfall climatology of the Middle East region identifying the mechanisms responsible for the rain producing systems is essential for effective utilization of the water resources over the arid region. A comprehensive analysis on the rainfall climatology of the Middle East region is carried out to bring out the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and mechanisms responsible for the rain events. The study was carried out utilizing rainfall, OLR, wind and humidity data sets procured from TRMM, NOAA and NCEP-NCAR. Climatology of annual rainfall brings out two areas of alarmingly low rainfall in the Middle East region: one in Egypt, Jordan and adjoining areas and the other in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. Daily rainfall analysis indicates that northern region gets rainfall mainly during winter and spring associated with the passage of Mediterranean low pressure systems whereas rain over the southern region is caused mainly by the monsoon organized convection, cross equatorial flow and remnants of low pressure systems associated with the monsoon during the summer season. Thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere reveals that the region does not have frequent local convection due to insufficient moisture content. The sinking motion associated with the sub tropic high pressure system and subsidence associated with the Walker circulation are responsible for maintaining warm and dry air over the region.

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Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool and formed in the eastern Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the summer monsoon season. This warm pool attained its maximum intensity during the pre-monsoon season and dissipated with the commencement of summer monsoon. The main focus of the present work was on the triggering of the dissipation of this warm pool and its relation to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. This phenomenon was studied utilizing NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric and Research) re-analysis data, TRMM Micro wave Imager (TMI) and observational data. To define the ASMWP, sea surface temperature exceeding 30.25 C was taken as the criteria. The warm pool attained its maximum dimension and intensity nearly 2 weeks prior to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. Interestingly, the warm pool started its dissipation immediately after attaining its maximum core temperature. This information can be included in the present numerical models to enhance the prediction capability. It was also found that the extent and intensity of the ASMWP varied depending on the type of monsoon i.e., excess, normal, and deficient monsoon. Maximum core temperature and wide coverage of the warm pool observed during the excess monsoon years compared to normal and deficient monsoon years. The study also revealed a strong relationship between the salinity in the eastern Arabian Sea and the nature of the monsoon

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During the period from 12 to 15 April, 2009 nearly the entire Iran, apart from the southern border, experienced an advective cooling event. While winter freezing concerns are typical, the nature of this freezing event was unusual with respect to its date of occurrence and accompanying synoptic meteorological situation. To analyze the freezing event, the relevant meteorological data at multiple levels of the atmosphere were examined from the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset. The results showed that a polar vortex was responsible for the freezing event over the country extending southward extraordinarily in such a way that its ridge influenced most parts of Iran. This was recognized as an abnormal extension of a polar vortex in the recent years. The sea-level pressure fields indicated that a ridge of large-scale anticyclone centered over Black Sea extended southward and prevailed over most parts of Iran. This resulted in the formation of a severe cold air advection from high latitudes (Polar region) over Iran. During the study period, moisture pumping was observed from the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. The winds at 1000 hPa level blew with a magnitude of 10 m s-1 toward south in the region of convergence (between -2 9 10-6 s-1 and -12 9 10-6 s-1). The vertical profilesof temperature and humidity also indicated that the ICE structural icing occurred at multiple levels of the atmosphere, i.e, from 800 hPa through 400 hPa levels. In addition to the carburetor (or induction), icing occurred between 900 and 700 hPa levels in the selected radiosonde stations during the study period. In addition, the HYSPLIT backward trajectory model outputs were in quite good agreement with the observed synoptic features

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A distinct cold tongue has recently been noticed in the South China Sea during the winter monsoon, with the cold tongue temperature minimum occurring in the January or February. This cold tongue shows signi¯cant links with the Maritime Continent's rainfall during the winter period. The cold tongue and its interaction with the Maritime Continent's weather were studied using Reynolds SST data, wind ¯elds from the NCEP{NCAR reanalysis dataset and the quikSCAT dataset. In addition, rainfall from the GOES Precipitation Index (GPI) for the periods 2000 to 2008 was also used. The propagation of the cold tongue towards the south is explained using wind dynamics and the western boundary current. During the period of strong cold tongue, the surface wind is strong and the western boundary current advects the cold tongue to the south. During the period of strong winds the zonal gradient of SST is high [0.5±C (25 km)¡1]. The cold tongue plays an important role in regulating the climate over the Maritime Continent. It creates a zonal/meridional SST gradient and this gradient ultimately leads in the formation of convection. Hence, two maximum precipitation zones are found in the Maritime Continent, with a zone of relatively lower precipitation between, which coincides with the cold tongue's regions. It was found that the precipitation zones have strong links with the intensity of the cold tongue. During stronger cold tongue periods the precipitation on either side of the cold tongue is considerably greater than during weaker cold tongue periods. The features of convection on the eastern and western sides of the cold tongue behave di®erently. On the eastern side convection is preceded by one day with SST gradient, while on the western side it is four days.

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The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO), a major interannual variation phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific region, is the result of strong ocean-atmosphere coupling over the Asian-Australian monsoon area. Along with other meteorological and oceanographic parameters, the tropical circulation also exhibits interannual oscillations. Even though the TBO is the result of strong air–sea interaction, the circulation cells during TBO years are, as yet, not well understood. In the present study, an attempt has been made to understand the interannual variability of the mean meridional circulation and local monsoon circulation over south Asia in connection with the TBO. The stream function computed from the zonal mean meridional wind component of NCEP=NCAR reanalysis data for the years 1950–2003 is used to represent the meanmeridional circulation. Mean meridional mass transport in the topics reverses from a weak monsoon to a strong monsoon in the presence of ENSO, but in normal TBO yearsmean transport remains weak across the Northern Hemisphere. The meridional temperature gradient, which drives the mean meridional circulation, also shows no reversal during the normal TBO cycle. The local Hadley circulation over the monsoon area follows the TBO cycle with anomalous ascent (descent) in strong (weak) monsoon years. During normal TBO years, the Equatorial region and Indian monsoon areas exhibit opposite local Hadley circulation anomalies