Coconut Phenology and Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change

The present investigation on “Coconut Phenology and Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change” was undertaken at the experimental site, at the Regional Station, Coconut Development Board, KAU Campus, Vellanikkara. Ten palms each of eight-year-old coconut cultivars viz., Tiptur Tall, Kuttiadi (WCT), Kasaragod (WCT) and Komadan (WCT) were randomly selected.The study therefore, reinforces our traditional knowledge that the coconut palm is sensitive to changing weather conditions during the period from primordium initiation to harvest of nuts (about 44 months). Absence of rainfall from December to May due to early withdrawal of northeast monsoon, lack of pre monsoon showers and late onset of southwest monsoon adversely affect the coconut productivity to a considerable extent in the following year under rainfed conditions. The productivity can be increased by irrigating the coconut palm during the dry periods.Increase in temperature, aridity index, number of severe summer droughts and decline in rainfall and moisture index were the major factors for a marginal decline or stagnation in coconut productivity over a period of time, though various developmental schemes were in operation for sustenance of coconut production in the State of Kerala. It can be attributed to global warming and climate change. Therefore, there is a threat to coconut productivity in the ensuing decades due to climate variability and change. In view of the above, there is an urgent need for proactive measures as a part of climate change adaptation to sustain coconut productivity in the State of Kerala.The coconut productivity is more vulnerable to climate variability such as summer droughts rather than climate change in terms of increase in temperature and decline in rainfall, though there was a marginal decrease (1.6%) in the decade of 1981-2009 when compared to that of 1951-80. This aspect needs to be examined in detail by coconut development agencies such as Coconut Development Board and State Agriculture Department for remedial measures. Otherwise, the premier position of Kerala in terms of coconut production is likely to be lost in the ensuing years under the projected climate change scenario. Among the four cultivars studied, Tiptur Tall appears to be superior in terms of reproduction phase and nut yield. This needs to be examined by the coconut breeders in their crop improvement programme as a part of stress tolerant under rainfed conditions. Crop mix and integrated farming are supposed to be the best combination to sustain development in the long run under the projected climate change scenarios. Increase in coconut area under irrigation during summer with better crop management and protection measures also are necessary measures to increase coconut productivity since the frequency of intensity of summer droughts is likely to increase under projected global warming scenario.

Predicted impact of the sea-level rise at VellareColeroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu coast in India: Mainstreaming adaptation as a coastal zone management option

Low-lying coastal areas are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as they are highly prone for inundation to SLR (Sea-Level Rise). This study presents an appraisal of the impacts of SLR on the coastal natural resources and its dependent social communities in the low-lying area of VellareColeroon estuarine region of the Tamil Nadu coast, India. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from SRTM 90M (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) data, along with GIS (Geographic Information System) techniques are used to identify an area of inundation in the study site. The vulnerability of coastal areas in Vellar-Coleroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu coast to inundation was calculated based on the projected SLR scenarios of 0.5 m and 1 m. The results demonstrated that about 1570 ha of the LULC (Land use and Land cover) of the study area would be permanently inundated to 0.5 m and 2407 ha for 1 m SLR and has also resulted in the loss of three major coastal natural resources like coastal agriculture, mangroves and aquaculture. It has been identified that six hamlets of the social communities who depend on these resources are at high-risk and vulnerable to 0.5 m SLR and 12 hamlets for 1 m SLR. From the study, it has been emphasized that mainstreaming adaptation options to SLR should be embedded within a coastal zone management and planning effort, which includes all coastal natural resources (ecosystem-based adaptation), and its dependent social communities (community-based adaptation) involved through capacity building