Bayesian Inference in Exponential and Pareto populations in the presence of Outliers

This thesis Entitled Bayesian inference in Exponential and pareto populations in the presence of outliers. The main theme of the present thesis is focussed on various estimation problems using the Bayesian appraoch, falling under the general category of accommodation procedures for analysing Pareto data containing outlier. In Chapter II. the problem of estimation of parameters in the classical Pareto distribution specified by the density function. In Chapter IV. we discuss the estimation of (1.19) when the sample contain a known number of outliers under three different data generating mechanisms, viz. the exchangeable model. Chapter V the prediction of a future observation based on a random sample that contains one contaminant. Chapter VI is devoted to the study of estimation problems concerning the exponential parameters under a k-outlier model.

Environomics - A Financial Estimate of Environmental Pollution Control and Abatement Schemes in Eloor-Edayar Industrial Belt

The present study consists of nine chapters including the introductory chapter. Chapter II makes a brief review of environmental literature and examines various measures adopted at the global level to protect the environment. The environmental problems often transgress national sovereignity and geographical boundaries. Therefore, attempts must be made at the national and international levels to protect the environment, the resources of which are the common property of mankind. The protection of the national environment from the ancient till the present forms the content of Chapter III. These chapters together provide a background to understand the issues analysed in the subsequent chapters. Carefully worked out theoretical framework is a pre-requisite for the successful study of a complex subject. Some of the theoretical issues of ‘environomics’ are examined in Chapter IV. The theoretical issues involved in estimating the costs and benefits of environmental protection constitute the theme of Chapter V. The state of environment in Eloor-Edayar Industrial belt andthe impact analysis of pollution of the area are discussed in Chapter VI and VII respectively. Chapter VIII makes the financial estimate of environmental protection of the project And finally, Chapter IX presents the findings of the study

Model Diagnostics in the presence of measurement error

The problem of using information available from one variable X to make inferenceabout another Y is classical in many physical and social sciences. In statistics this isoften done via regression analysis where mean response is used to model the data. Onestipulates the model Y = µ(X) +ɛ. Here µ(X) is the mean response at the predictor variable value X = x, and ɛ = Y - µ(X) is the error. In classical regression analysis, both (X; Y ) are observable and one then proceeds to make inference about the mean response function µ(X). In practice there are numerous examples where X is not available, but a variable Z is observed which provides an estimate of X. As an example, consider the herbicidestudy of Rudemo, et al. [3] in which a nominal measured amount Z of herbicide was applied to a plant but the actual amount absorbed by the plant X is unobservable. As another example, from Wang [5], an epidemiologist studies the severity of a lung disease, Y , among the residents in a city in relation to the amount of certain air pollutants. The amount of the air pollutants Z can be measured at certain observation stations in the city, but the actual exposure of the residents to the pollutants, X, is unobservable and may vary randomly from the Z-values. In both cases X = Z+error: This is the so called Berkson measurement error model.In more classical measurement error model one observes an unbiased estimator W of X and stipulates the relation W = X + error: An example of this model occurs when assessing effect of nutrition X on a disease. Measuring nutrition intake precisely within 24 hours is almost impossible. There are many similar examples in agricultural or medical studies, see e.g., Carroll, Ruppert and Stefanski [1] and Fuller [2], , among others. In this talk we shall address the question of fitting a parametric model to the re-gression function µ(X) in the Berkson measurement error model: Y = µ(X) + ɛ; X = Z + η; where η and ɛ are random errors with E(ɛ) = 0, X and η are d-dimensional, and Z is the observable d-dimensional r.v.

Differential induction, isolation, physicochemical and molecular characterization of temperate phages of environmental Vibrio cholerae as evidence of phage mediated Horizontal Gene Transfer

The resurgence of the enteric pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative organism of epidemic cholera, remains a major health problem in many developing countries like India. The southern Indian state of Kerala is endemic to cholera. The outbreaks of cholera follow a seasonal pattern in regions of endemicity. Marine aquaculture settings and mangrove environments of Kerala serve as reservoirs for V. cholerae. The non-O1/non-O139 environmental isolates of V. cholerae with incomplete ‘virulence casette’ are to be dealt with caution as they constitute a major reservoir of diverse virulence genes in the marine environment and play a crucial role in pathogenicity and horizontal gene transfer. The genes coding cholera toxin are borne on, and can be infectiously transmitted by CTXΦ, a filamentous lysogenic vibriophages. Temperate phages can provide crucial virulence and fitness factors affecting cell metabolism, bacterial adhesion, colonization, immunity, antibiotic resistance and serum resistance. The present study was an attempt to screen the marine environments like aquafarms and mangroves of coastal areas of Alappuzha and Cochin, Kerala for the presence of lysogenic V. cholerae, to study their pathogenicity and also gene transfer potential. Phenotypic and molecular methods were used for identification of isolates as V. cholerae. The thirty one isolates which were Gram negative, oxidase positive, fermentative, with or without gas production on MOF media and which showed yellow coloured colonies on TCBS (Thiosulfate Citrate Bile salt Sucrose) agar were segregated as vibrios. Twenty two environmental V. cholerae strains of both O1 and non- O1/non-O139 serogroups on induction with mitomycin C showed the presence of lysogenic phages. They produced characteristic turbid plaques in double agar overlay assay using the indicator strain V. cholerae El Tor MAK 757. PCR based molecular typing with primers targeting specific conserved sequences in the bacterial genome, demonstrated genetic diversity among these lysogen containing non-O1 V. cholerae . Polymerase chain reaction was also employed as a rapid screening method to verify the presence of 9 virulence genes namely, ctxA, ctxB, ace, hlyA, toxR, zot,tcpA, ninT and nanH, using gene specific primers. The presence of tcpA gene in ALPVC3 was alarming, as it indicates the possibility of an epidemic by accepting the cholera. Differential induction studies used ΦALPVC3, ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14, underlining the possibility of prophage induction in natural ecosystems, due to abiotic factors like antibiotics, pollutants, temperature and UV. The efficiency of induction of prophages varied considerably in response to the different induction agents. The growth curve of lysogenic V. cholerae used in the study drastically varied in the presence of strong prophage inducers like antibiotics and UV. Bacterial cell lysis was directly proportional to increase in phage number due to induction. Morphological characterization of vibriophages by Transmission Electron Microscopy revealed hexagonal heads for all the four phages. Vibriophage ΦALPVC3 exhibited isometric and contractile tails characteristic of family Myoviridae, while phages ΦALPVC11 and ΦALPVC12 demonstrated the typical hexagonal head and non-contractile tail of family Siphoviridae. ΦEKM14, the podophage was distinguished by short non-contractile tail and icosahedral head. This work demonstrated that environmental parameters can influence the viability and cell adsorption rates of V. cholerae phages. Adsorption studies showed 100% adsorption of ΦALPVC3 ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14 after 25, 30, 40 and 35 minutes respectively. Exposure to high temperatures ranging from 50ºC to 100ºC drastically reduced phage viability. The optimum concentration of NaCl required for survival of vibriophages except ΦEKM14 was 0.5 M and that for ΦEKM14 was 1M NaCl. Survival of phage particles was maximum at pH 7-8. V. cholerae is assumed to have existed long before their human host and so the pathogenic clones may have evolved from aquatic forms which later colonized the human intestine by progressive acquisition of genes. This is supported by the fact that the vast majority of V. cholerae strains are still part of the natural aquatic environment. CTXΦ has played a critical role in the evolution of the pathogenicity of V. cholerae as it can transmit the ctxAB gene. The unusual transformation of V. cholerae strains associated with epidemics and the emergence of V. cholera O139 demonstrates the evolutionary success of the organism in attaining greater fitness. Genetic changes in pathogenic V. cholerae constitute a natural process for developing immunity within an endemically infected population. The alternative hosts and lysogenic environmental V. cholerae strains may potentially act as cofactors in promoting cholera phage ‘‘blooms’’ within aquatic environments, thereby influencing transmission of phage sensitive, pathogenic V. cholerae strains by aquatic vehicles. Differential induction of the phages is a clear indication of the impact of environmental pollution and global changes on phage induction. The development of molecular biology techniques offered an accessible gateway for investigating the molecular events leading to genetic diversity in the marine environment. Using nucleic acids as targets, the methods of fingerprinting like ERIC PCR and BOX PCR, revealed that the marine environment harbours potentially pathogenic group of bacteria with genetic diversity. The distribution of virulence associated genes in the environmental isolates of V. cholerae provides tangible material for further investigation. Nucleotide and protein sequence analysis alongwith protein structure prediction aids in better understanding of the variation inalleles of same gene in different ecological niche and its impact on the protein structure for attaining greater fitness of pathogens. The evidences of the co-evolution of virulence genes in toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from different lineages of environmental non-O1 strains is alarming. Transduction studies would indicate that the phenomenon of acquisition of these virulence genes by lateral gene transfer, although rare, is not quite uncommon amongst non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae and it has a key role in diversification. All these considerations justify the need for an integrated approach towards the development of an effective surveillance system to monitor evolution of V. cholerae strains with epidemic potential. Results presented in this study, if considered together with the mechanism proposed as above, would strongly suggest that the bacteriophage also intervenes as a variable in shaping the cholera bacterium, which cannot be ignored and hinting at imminent future epidemics.