Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Analysis and Optimization of Machining Process Using Evolutionary Algorithms

To ensure quality of machined products at minimum machining costs and maximum machining effectiveness, it is very important to select optimum parameters when metal cutting machine tools are employed. Traditionally, the experience of the operator plays a major role in the selection of optimum metal cutting conditions. However, attaining optimum values each time by even a skilled operator is difficult. The non-linear nature of the machining process has compelled engineers to search for more effective methods to attain optimization. The design objective preceding most engineering design activities is simply to minimize the cost of production or to maximize the production efficiency. The main aim of research work reported here is to build robust optimization algorithms by exploiting ideas that nature has to offer from its backyard and using it to solve real world optimization problems in manufacturing processes.In this thesis, after conducting an exhaustive literature review, several optimization techniques used in various manufacturing processes have been identified. The selection of optimal cutting parameters, like depth of cut, feed and speed is a very important issue for every machining process. Experiments have been designed using Taguchi technique and dry turning of SS420 has been performed on Kirlosker turn master 35 lathe. Analysis using S/N and ANOVA were performed to find the optimum level and percentage of contribution of each parameter. By using S/N analysis the optimum machining parameters from the experimentation is obtained.Optimization algorithms begin with one or more design solutions supplied by the user and then iteratively check new design solutions, relative search spaces in order to achieve the true optimum solution. A mathematical model has been developed using response surface analysis for surface roughness and the model was validated using published results from literature.Methodologies in optimization such as Simulated annealing (SA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Conventional Genetic Algorithm (CGA) and Improved Genetic Algorithm (IGA) are applied to optimize machining parameters while dry turning of SS420 material. All the above algorithms were tested for their efficiency, robustness and accuracy and observe how they often outperform conventional optimization method applied to difficult real world problems. The SA, PSO, CGA and IGA codes were developed using MATLAB. For each evolutionary algorithmic method, optimum cutting conditions are provided to achieve better surface finish.The computational results using SA clearly demonstrated that the proposed solution procedure is quite capable in solving such complicated problems effectively and efficiently. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a relatively recent heuristic search method whose mechanics are inspired by the swarming or collaborative behavior of biological populations. From the results it has been observed that PSO provides better results and also more computationally efficient.Based on the results obtained using CGA and IGA for the optimization of machining process, the proposed IGA provides better results than the conventional GA. The improved genetic algorithm incorporating a stochastic crossover technique and an artificial initial population scheme is developed to provide a faster search mechanism. Finally, a comparison among these algorithms were made for the specific example of dry turning of SS 420 material and arriving at optimum machining parameters of feed, cutting speed, depth of cut and tool nose radius for minimum surface roughness as the criterion. To summarize, the research work fills in conspicuous gaps between research prototypes and industry requirements, by simulating evolutionary procedures seen in nature that optimize its own systems.

Studies on the effect of randoniness on the synchronization of coupled systems and on the dynamics of intermittently driven systems

It has been shown recently that systems driven with random pulses show the signature of chaos ,even without non linear dynamics.This shows that the relation between randomness and chaos is much closer than it was understood earlier .The effect of random perturbations on synchronization can be also different. In some cases identical random perturbations acting on two different chaotic systems induce synchronizations. However most commonly ,the effect of random fluctuations on the synchronizations of chaotic system is to destroy synchronization. This thesis deals with the effect of random fluctuations with its associated characteristic timescales on chaos and synchronization. The author tries to unearth yet another manifestation of randomness on chaos and sychroniztion. This thesis is organized into six chapters.

Some Properties of Weighted Distributions in the Context of Repairable Systems

In this article we introduce some structural relationships between weighted and original variables in the context of maintainability function and reversed repair rate. Furthermore, we prove some characterization theorems for specific models such as power, exponential, Pareto II, beta, and Pearson system of distributions using the relationships between the original and weighted random variables

GA-based Optimization of a Fourth-order Sigma-delta Modulator for WLAN

Over-sampling sigma-delta analogue-to-digital converters (ADCs) are one of the key building blocks of state of the art wireless transceivers. In the sigma-delta modulator design the scaling coefficients determine the overall signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, selecting the optimum value of the coefficient is very important. To this end, this paper addresses the design of a fourthorder multi-bit sigma-delta modulator for Wireless Local Area Networks (WLAN) receiver with feed-forward path and the optimum coefficients are selected using genetic algorithm (GA)- based search method. In particular, the proposed converter makes use of low-distortion swing suppression SDM architecture which is highly suitable for low oversampling ratios to attain high linearity over a wide bandwidth. The focus of this paper is the identification of the best coefficients suitable for the proposed topology as well as the optimization of a set of system parameters in order to achieve the desired signal-to-noise ratio. GA-based search engine is a stochastic search method which can find the optimum solution within the given constraints.

Optimization of pH and Direct Imaging Conditions of Complexed Methylene Blue Sensitized Poly(vinyl chloride) Films

Significant results of our experimental investigations on the dependence of pH on real time transmission characteristics on recording media fabricated by doping PVC with complexed methylene blue are presented. The optimum pH value for faster bleaching was found to be 4×5. In typical applications, the illumination from one side, normal to the surface of this material, initiates a chemical sequence that records the incident light pattern in the polymer. Thus direct imaging can be successfully done on this sample. The recorded letters were very legible with good contrast and no scattering centres. Diffraction efficiency measurements were also carried out on this material.

Optimization of pH and Direct Imaging Conditions of Complexed Methylene Blue Sensitized Poly(vinyl chloride) Films

Significant results of our experimental investigations on the dependence of pH on real time transmission characteristics on recording media fabricated by doping PVC with complexed methylene blue are presented. The optimum pH value for faster bleaching was found to be 4×5. In typical applications, the illumination from one side, normal to the surface of this material, initiates a chemical sequence that records the incident light pattern in the polymer. Thus direct imaging can be successfully done on this sample. The recorded letters were very legible with good contrast and no scattering centres. Diffraction efficiency measurements were also carried out on this material.

Optimization of pH and direct imaging conditions of complexed methylene blue sensitized poly(vinyl chloride) films

Significant results of our experimental investigations on the dependence of pH on real time transmission characteristics on recording media fabricated by doping PVC with complexed methylene blue are presented. The optimum pH value for faster bleaching was found to be 4 . 5. In typical applications, the illumination from one side, normal to the surface of this material, initiates a chemical sequence that records the incident light pattern in the polymer. Thus direct imaging can be successfully done on this sample. The recorded letters were very legible with good contrast and no scattering centres. Diffraction efficiency measurements were also carried out on this material.

ANALYSIS, MODIFICATION, AND EVALUATION OF THE COLD FLOW PROPERTIES OF VEGETABLE OILS AS BASE OIL FOR INDUSTRIAL LUBRICANTS

Poor cold flow properties of vegetable oils are a major problem preventing the usage of many abundantly available vegetable oils as base stocks for industrial lubricants. The major objective of this research is to improve the cold flow properties of vegetable oils by various techniques like additive addition and different chemical modification processes. Conventional procedure for determining pour point is ASTM D97 method. ASTM D97 method is time consuming and reproducibility of pour point temperatures is poor between laboratories. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) is a fast, accurate and reproducible method to analyze the thermal activities during cooling/heating of oil. In this work coconut oil has been chosen as representative vegetable oil for the analysis and improvement cold flow properties since it is abundantly available in the tropics and has a very high pour point of 24 °C. DSC is used for the analysis of unmodified and modified vegetable oil. The modified oils (with acceptable pour points) were then subjected to different tests for the valuation of important lubricant properties such as viscometric, tribological (friction and wear properties), oxidative and corrosion properties.A commercial polymethacrylate based PPD was added in different percentages and the pour points were determined in each case. Styrenated phenol(SP) was added in different concentration to coconut oil and each solution was subjected to ASTM D97 test and analysis by DSC. Refined coconut oil and other oils like castor oil, sunflower oil and keranja oil were mixed in different proportions and interesterification procedure was carried out. Interesterification of coconut oil with other vegetable oils was not found to be effective in lowering the pour point of coconut oil as the reduction attained was only to the extent of 2 to 3 °C.Chemical modification by acid catalysed condensation reaction with coconut oil castor oil mixture resulted in significant reduction of pour point (from 24 ºC to -3 ºC). Instead of using triacylglycerols, when their fatty acid derivatives (lauric acid- the major fatty acid content of coconut oil and oleic acid- the major fatty acid constituents of monoand poly- unsaturated vegetable oils like olive oil, sunflower oil etc.) were used for the synthesis , the pour point could be brought down to -42 ºC. FTIR and NMR spectroscopy confirmed the ester structure of the product which is fundamental to the biodegradability of vegetable oils. The tribological performance of the synthesised product with a suitable AW/EP additive was comparable to the commercial SAE20W30 oil. The viscometric properties (viscosity and viscosity index) were also (with out additives) comparable to commercial lubricants. The TGA experiment confirmed the better oxidative performance of the product compared to vegetable oils. The sample passed corrosion test as per ASTM D130 method.

Studies on the Effect of Randomness on the Synchronization of Coupled Systems and on the Dynamics of Intermittently driven systems

Nonlinear dynamics has emerged into a prominent area of research in the past few Decades.Turbulence, Pattern formation,Multistability etc are some of the important areas of research in nonlinear dynamics apart from the study of chaos.Chaos refers to the complex evolution of a deterministic system, which is highly sensitive to initial conditions. The study of chaos theory started in the modern sense with the investigations of Edward Lorentz in mid 60's. Later developments in this subject provided systematic development of chaos theory as a science of deterministic but complex and unpredictable dynamical systems. This thesis deals with the effect of random fluctuations with its associated characteristic timescales on chaos and synchronization. Here we introduce the concept of noise, and two familiar types of noise are discussed. The classifications and representation of white and colored noise are introduced. Based on this we introduce the concept of randomness that we deal with as a variant of the familiar concept of noise. The dynamical systems introduced are the Rossler system, directly modulated semiconductor lasers and the Harmonic oscillator. The directly modulated semiconductor laser being not a much familiar dynamical system, we have included a detailed introduction to its relevance in Chaotic encryption based cryptography in communication. We show that the effect of a fluctuating parameter mismatch on synchronization is to destroy the synchronization. Further we show that the relation between synchronization error and timescales can be found empirically but there are also cases where this is not possible. Studies show that under the variation of the parameters, the system becomes chaotic, which appears to be the period doubling route to chaos.

Optimization of carbon and nitrogen sources and growth factors for the production of an aquaculture probiotic (Pseudomonas MCCB 103) using response surface methodology

Aim: To develop a new medium for enhanced production of biomass of an aquaculture probiotic Pseudomonas MCCB 103 and its antagonistic phenazine compound, pyocyanin. Methods and Results: Carbon and nitrogen sources and growth factors, such as amino acids and vitamins, were screened initially in a mineral medium for the biomass and antagonistic compound of Pseudomonas MCCB 103. The selected ingredients were further optimized using a full-factorial central composite design of the response surface methodology. The medium optimized as per the model for biomass contained mannitol (20 g l)1), glycerol (20 g l)1), sodium chloride (5 g l)1), urea (3Æ3 g l)1) and mineral salts solution (20 ml l)1), and the one optimized for the antagonistic compound contained mannitol (2 g l)1), glycerol (20 g l)1), sodium chloride (5Æ1 g l)1), urea (3Æ6 g l)1) and mineral salts solution (20 ml l)1). Subsequently, the model was validated experimentally with a biomass increase by 19% and fivefold increase of the antagonistic compound. Conclusion: Significant increase in the biomass and antagonistic compound production could be obtained in the new media. Significance and Impact of the Study: Media formulation and optimization are the primary steps involved in bioprocess technology, an attempt not made so far in the production of aquaculture probiotics.

Optimization of Preparation Techniques and Dielectric Study of Polyanilines in the Microwave & High Frequency Field

The thesis deals with the preparation and dielectric characterization of Poly aniline and its analogues in ISM band frequency of 2-4 GHz that includes part of the microwave region (300 MHz to 300 GHz) of the electromagnetic spectrum and an initial dielectric study in the high frequency [O.05MHz-13 MHz]. PolyaniIine has been synthesized by an in situ doping reaction under different temperature and in the presence of inorganic dopants such as HCl H2S04, HN03, HCl04 and organic dopants such as camphorsulphonic acid [CSA], toluenesulphonic acid {TSA) and naphthalenesulphonic acid [NSA]. The variation in dielectric properties with change in reaction temperature, dopants and frequency has been studied. The effect of codopants and microemulsions on the dielectric properties has also been studied in the ISM band. The ISM band of frequencies (2-4 GHz) is of great utility in Industrial, Scientific and Medical (ISM) applications. Microwave heating is a very efficient method of heating dielectric materials and is extensively used in industrial as well as household heating applications.

Optimization of Two Stage Process for the Growth of In2S3 , CuInSe2 and CuIn (Sel-xSx)2Thin Films for Solar Cell Application

Two stage processes consisting of precursor preparation by thermal evaporation followed by chalcogenisation in the required atmosphere is found to be a feasible technique for the PV materials such as n-Beta In2S3, p-CulnSe2, p-CulnS2 and p-CuIn(Sel_xSx)2. The growth parameters such as chalcogenisation temperature and duration of chalcogenisation etc have been optimised in the present study.Single phase Beta-In2S3 thin films can be obtained by sulfurising the indium films above 300°C for 45 minutes. Low sulfurisation temperatures required prolonged annealing after the sulfurisation to obtain single phase Beta-1n2S3, which resulted in high material loss. The maximum band gap of 2.58 eV was obtained for the nearly stoichiometric Beta-In2S3 film which was sulfurised at 350°C. This wider band gap, n type Beta-In2S3 can be used as an alternative to toxic CdS as window layer in photovoltaics .The systematic study on the structural optical and electrical properties of CuInSe2 films by varying the process parameters such as the duration of selenization and the selenization temperature led to the conclusion that for the growth of single-phase CuInSe2, the optimum selenization temperature is 350°C and duration is 3 hours. The presence of some binary phases in films for shorter selenization period and lower selenization temperature may be due to the incomplete reaction and indium loss. Optical band gap energy of 1.05 eV obtained for the films under the optimum condition.In order to obtain a closer match to the solar spectrum it is desirable to increase the band gap of the CulnSe2 by a few meV . Further research works were carried out to produce graded band gap CuIn(Se,S)2 absorber films by incorporation of sulfur into CuInSe2. It was observed that when the CulnSe2 prepared by two stage process were post annealed in sulfur atmosphere, the sulfur may be occupying the interstitial positions or forming a CuInS2 phase along with CuInSe2 phase. The sulfur treatment during the selenization process OfCu11 ln9 precursors resulted in Culn (Se,S)2 thin films. A band gap of 1.38 eV was obtained for the CuIn(Se,S)2.The optimised thin films n-beta 1n2S3, p-CulnSe2 and p-Culn(Sel-xSx)2 can be used for fabrication of polycrystalline solar cells.

Invariant Characterization of Neural Systems

It is shown that the invariant integral, viz., the Kolmogorov second entropy, is eminently suited to characterize EEG quantitatively. The estimation obtained for a "clinically normal" brain is compared with a previous result obtained from the EEG of a person under epileptic seizure.

Design and Development of Instrumentation Systems to determine the Dry Rubber Content in Natural Rubber Latex

Hevea latex is a natural biological liquid of very complex composition .Besides rubber hydrocarbons,it contains many proteinous and resinous substances,carbohydrates,inorganic matter,water,and others.The Dry Rubber Content (DRC) of latex varies according to season, tapping system,weather,soil conditions ,clone,age of the tree etc. The true DRC of the latex must be determined to ensure fair prices for the latex during commercial exchange.The DRC of Hevea latex is a very familiar term to all in the rubber industry.It has been the basis for incentive payments to tappers who bring in more than the daily agreed poundage of latex.It is an important parameter for rubber and latex processing industries for automation and verious decesion making processes.This thesis embodies the efforts made by me to determine the DRC of rubber latex following different analytical tools such as MIR absorption,thermal analysis.dielectric spectroscopy and NIR reflectance.The rubber industry is still Looking for a compact instrument that is accurate economical,easy to use and environment friendly.I hope the results presented in this thesis will help to realise this goal in the near future.