Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Molecular Epidemiology of Escherichia coli isolates from Environmental, Food and Clinical Sources

In the present study diversity of E. coli in the water samples of Cochin estuary were studied for a period of 3 years ranging from January 2010- December 2012. The stations were selected based on the closeness to satellite townships and waste input. Two of the stations (Chitoor and Thevara) were fixed upstream, two in the central part of the estuary namely Bolgatty and Off Marine Science Jetty, and one at the Barmouth. Diversity was assessed in terms of serotypes, phylogenetic groups and genotypes. Two groups of seafood samples such as fish and shellfish collected from the Cochin estuary were used for isolation of E. coli. One hundred clinical E. coli isolates were collected from one public health centre, one hospital and five medical labs in and around Cochin City, Kerala. From our results it was clear that pathogen cycling is occurring through food, water and clinical sources. Pathogen cycling through food is very common and fish and shellfish that harbour these strains might pose potential health risk to consumer. Estuarine environment is a melting pot for various kinds of wastes, both organic and inorganic. Mixing up of waste water from various sources such as domestic, industries, hospitals and sewage released into these water bodies resulting in the co-existence of E. coli from various sources thus offering a conducive environment for horizontal gene transfer. Opportunistic pathogens might acquire genes for drug resistance and virulence turning them to potential pathogens. Prevalence of ExPEC in the Cochin estuary, pose threat to people who use this water for fishing and recreation. Food chain also plays an important role in the transit of virulence genes from the environments to the human. Antibiotic resistant E. coli are widespread in estuarine water, seafood and clinical samples, for reasons well known such as indiscriminate use of antibiotics in animal production systems, aquaculture and human medicine. Since the waste water from these sources entering the estuary provides selection pressure to drug resistant mutants in the environment. It is high time that the authorities concerned should put systems in place for monitoring and enforcement to curb such activities. Microbial contamination can limit people’s enjoyment of coastal waters for contact recreation or shellfish-gathering. E. coli can make people sick if they are present in high levels in water used for contact recreation or shellfish gathering. When feeding, shellfish can filter large volumes of seawater, so any microorganisms present in the water become accumulated and concentrated in the shellfish flesh. If E. coli contaminated shellfish are consumed the impact to human health includes gastroenteritis, urinary tract infections (UTIs), and bacteraemia. In conclusion, the high prevalence of various pathogenic serotypes and phylogenetic groups, multidrug-resistance, and virulence factor genes detected among E. coli isolates from stations close to Cochin city is a matter of concern, since there is a large reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes and virulence traits within the community, and that the resistance genes and plasmid-encoded genes for virulence were easily transferable to other strains. Given the severity of the clinical manifestations of the disease in humans and the inability and/or the potential risks of antibiotic administration for treatment, it appears that the most direct and effective measure towards prevention of STEC and ExPEC infections in humans and ensuring public health may be considered as a priority.