Modelling and Analysis of Some Time Series

The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.

A multiple-building diffraction attenuation function expressed in terms of UTD coefficients for microcellular communications

This work presents an explicit formulation for multiple- edge diffraction for mobile radiowave propagation in terms of uniform theory of diffraction (UTD) coefficients when a spherical incident wave is considered. This solution can be used in an UTD context and sharply reduces the computing time over existing formulation. Results can be applied in the planning of microcellular systems

An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India—a historical perspective 1889–2008

Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889–1918 (NP1), 1919–1948 (NP2), 1949–1978 (NP3) and 1979–2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June– September, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889–2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1 mm with a standard deviation of 134.1 mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6 mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2 mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May– October) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during themonth of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During themonth of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November–March) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914– 2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during postmonsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4– 8 years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30–34 years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.

Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Wetland Ecosystem of Cochin City using Remote Sensing and GIS

Urban developments have exerted immense pressure on wetlands. Urban areas are normally centers of commercial activity and continue to attract migrants in large numbers in search of employment from different areas. As a result, habitations keep coming up in the natural areas / flood plains. This is happening in various Indian cities and towns and large habitations are coming up in low-lying areas, often encroaching even over drainage channels. In some cases, houses are constructed even on top of nallahs and drains. In the case of Kochi the situation is even worse as the base of the urban development itself stands on a completely reclaimed island. Also the topography and geology demanded more reclamation of land when the city developed as an agglomerative cluster. Cochin is a coastal settlement interspersed with a large backwater system and fringed on the eastern side by laterite-capped low hills from which a number of streams drain into the backwater system. The ridge line of the eastern low hills provides a welldefined watershed delimiting Cochin basin which help to confine the environmental parameters within a physical limit. This leads to an obvious conclusion that if physiography alone is considered, the western flatland is ideal for urban development. However it will result in serious environmental deterioration, as it comprises mainly of wetland and for availability of land there has to be large scale filling up of these wetlands which includes shallow mangrove-fringed water sheets, paddy fields, Pokkali fields, estuary etc.Chapter 1 School 4 of Environmental Studies The urban boundaries of Cochin are expanding fast with a consequent over-stretching of the existing fabric of basic amenities and services. Urbanisation leads to the transformation of agricultural land into built-up areas with the concomitant problems regarding water supply, drainage, garbage and sewage disposal etc. Many of the environmental problems of Cochin are hydrologic in origin; like water-logging / floods, sedimentation and pollution in the water bodies as well as shoreline erosion

Significance Of Classification Techniques In Prediction Of Learning Disabilities

The aim of this study is to show the importance of two classification techniques, viz. decision tree and clustering, in prediction of learning disabilities (LD) of school-age children. LDs affect about 10 percent of all children enrolled in schools. The problems of children with specific learning disabilities have been a cause of concern to parents and teachers for some time. Decision trees and clustering are powerful and popular tools used for classification and prediction in Data mining. Different rules extracted from the decision tree are used for prediction of learning disabilities. Clustering is the assignment of a set of observations into subsets, called clusters, which are useful in finding the different signs and symptoms (attributes) present in the LD affected child. In this paper, J48 algorithm is used for constructing the decision tree and K-means algorithm is used for creating the clusters. By applying these classification techniques, LD in any child can be identified

Evaluation Of A Novel Method Of Real Time Computer Assisted Spine Surgery

In this paper the effectiveness of a novel method of computer assisted pedicle screw insertion was studied using testing of hypothesis procedure with a sample size of 48. Pattern recognition based on geometric features of markers on the drill has been performed on real time optical video obtained from orthogonally placed CCD cameras. The study reveals the exactness of the calculated position of the drill using navigation based on CT image of the vertebra and real time optical video of the drill. The significance value is 0.424 at 95% confidence level which indicates good precision with a standard mean error of only 0.00724. The virtual vision method is less hazardous to both patient and the surgeon