Modelling and Analysis of Some Time Series

The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.

Studies on gaussian effective potentials in some models

In classical field theory, the ordinary potential V is an energy density for that state in which the field assumes the value ¢. In quantum field theory, the effective potential is the expectation value of the energy density for which the expectation value of the field is ¢o. As a result, if V has several local minima, it is only the absolute minimum that corresponds to the true ground state of the theory. Perturbation theory remains to this day the main analytical tool in the study of Quantum Field Theory. However, since perturbation theory is unable to uncover the whole rich structure of Quantum Field Theory, it is desirable to have some method which, on one hand, must go beyond both perturbation theory and classical approximation in the points where these fail, and at that time, be sufficiently simple that analytical calculations could be performed in its framework During the last decade a nonperturbative variational method called Gaussian effective potential, has been discussed widely together with several applications. This concept was described as a means of formalizing our intuitive understanding of zero-point fluctuation effects in quantum mechanics in a way that carries over directly to field theory.

Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Sequences Generated by Product Autoregressive Models

The classical methods of analysing time series by Box-Jenkins approach assume that the observed series uctuates around changing levels with constant variance. That is, the time series is assumed to be of homoscedastic nature. However, the nancial time series exhibits the presence of heteroscedasticity in the sense that, it possesses non-constant conditional variance given the past observations. So, the analysis of nancial time series, requires the modelling of such variances, which may depend on some time dependent factors or its own past values. This lead to introduction of several classes of models to study the behaviour of nancial time series. See Taylor (1986), Tsay (2005), Rachev et al. (2007). The class of models, used to describe the evolution of conditional variances is referred to as stochastic volatility modelsThe stochastic models available to analyse the conditional variances, are based on either normal or log-normal distributions. One of the objectives of the present study is to explore the possibility of employing some non-Gaussian distributions to model the volatility sequences and then study the behaviour of the resulting return series. This lead us to work on the related problem of statistical inference, which is the main contribution of the thesis