An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India—a historical perspective 1889–2008

Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889–1918 (NP1), 1919–1948 (NP2), 1949–1978 (NP3) and 1979–2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June– September, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889–2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1 mm with a standard deviation of 134.1 mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6 mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2 mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May– October) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during themonth of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During themonth of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November–March) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914– 2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during postmonsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4– 8 years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30–34 years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.

Some concepts and models usefulninthe analysis of discrete life time data

This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.

The Aesthetics Of Paul Verlaine And Changampuzha Krishnapillai - A Comparative Perspective

The present study is entitled The Aesthetics of Paul Verlaine and Changampuzha Krishnapillai - a comparative perspective. The purpose of the study is to compare the poetic genius of the French poet Paul Verlaine (1844-1896) and that of the Malayalam poet Changampuzha Krishnapillai (1911-1948), within a descriptive framework. The investigation will hopefully answer the questions- Has Changampuzha been indeed influenced by Verlaine, if so, to what extent? Can the aesthetic appreciation be justified in both poets as illustrated in their works? The comparative methodology of juxtaposing the selected oeuvres of the poets is largely adopted in the study. Since the span of analysis is across national and linguistic borders, the distinguishing as well as exclusive traits of the individual poets will be of much importance in formulating the comparative assumption in this work. The vastly differing geographical, linguistic and cultural milieus of these two poets,-one a national French poet and the other, a regional Indian poet writing in Malayalam prima facie,endow the theme of the dissertation with an innate hue of diversity. Such an ambitious task would naturally entail a renewed research into the dedication of the poets to their muses and their ultimate contributions to poetics. The analysis, while attempting to illuminate from a fresh angle, the amply researched oeuvre of Verlaine and the lesser studied one of Changampuzha, cannot but be aware of the limitations of the task at hand. The present study is the first of its kind on the specific theme of analysis, and is hoped that it would be of relevance since no work has so far been known to have been undertaken on the topic. At a time when the birth centenary celebrations of Changampuzha have just concluded, this study is hoped to assume significance as it would help in isolating the originality of the poet's works, extricating the garb of the French influence. Ultimately, this study aims at creating a wider appreciation of the impact that the French writers have had on Malayalam writers, thus shedding new light on the benign foreign influences that served to enhance the beauty of our cultural heritage

Emotional Intelligence As A Determinant Of Conflict Style Adoption Of Managers: A Theoretical Perspective

Successful management is dependent heavily on the manager’s ability to handle conflict effectively. The workforce has been increasingly becoming diversified vis-à-vis the gender, culture and ethnicity. The present work environment has in itself contributed to sowing seeds of conflict with greater diversity, hostility, complexity and newer business competencies in the work context.The classic study of Mintzberg’s Managerial roles approach (1973) also says that a manager has to spend sufficient time and energy in solving conflict as he has to take roles as a negotiator, and dispute handler. An understanding of the conflict and role that it plays in influencing employee behavior constructively or destructively is immense. Therefore conflict when left unmanaged can lead to diminished cohesiveness amongst employees, productivity and reduced organizational fitness. To manage conflict effective conflict resolution strategies that have constructive outcomes is called for. Conflict resolution style theorists opine that collaborative or integrative style, where there is high concern for task and people is considered to give positive individual and organizational outcomes, while the withdrawing /avoidance style and forcing / dominating style are considered to be ineffective in managing conflict. Though managers have typical preferences in the styles followed it need not necessarily be the typical response as it depends on the context, power relationships, emotions etc. The adoption of conflict styles of managers however is dependent on variables like gender orientation, cultural values, personality orientation, underlying relationships – public/private. The paper attempts to draw the importance of managing conflicts at workplace positively and the need for effective conflict resolution strategies. The conflict style adopted and the variables that affect the adoption of each style are discussed and possible interventions at the workplace are suggested