2 resultados para Forecasts

em Cochin University of Science


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The present study helped to understand the trend in rainfall patterns at smaller spatial scales and the large regional differences in the variability of rainfall. The effect of land use and orography on the diurnal variability is also understood. But a better understanding on the long term variation in rainfall is possible by using a longer dataset,which may provide insight into the rainfall variation over country during the past century. The basic mechanism behind the interannual rainfall variability would be possible with numerical studies using coupled Ocean-Atmosphere models. The regional difference in the active-break conditions points to the significance of regional studies than considering India as a single unit. The underlying dynamics of diurnal variability need to be studied by making use of a high resolution model as the present study could not simulate the local onshore circulation. Also the land use modification in this study, selected a region, which is surrounded by crop land. This implies the high possibility for the conversion of the remaining region to agricultural land. Therefore the study is useful than considering idealized conditions, but the adverse effect of irrigated crop is more than non-irrigated crop. Therefore, such studies would help to understand the climate changes occurred in the recent period. The large accumulation of rainfall between 300-600 m height of western Ghats has been found but the reason behind this need to be studied, which is possible by utilizing datasets that would better represent the orography and landuse over the region in high resolution model. Similarly a detailed analysis is needed to clearly identify the causative relations of the predictors identified with the predictant and the physical reasons behind them. New approaches that include nonlinear relationships and dynamical variables from model simulations can be included in the existing statistical models to improve the skill of the models. Also the statistical models for the forecasts of monsoon have to be continually updated.

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This thesis Entitled Studies on certain exploited marine Finfish Resources of india.Marine fish catch forecasting is short term or long term basis for purposes of explation and management. Among the short term forecasts, two approaches need serious consideration in India: 1. to improve the methods of understanding the influence of environmental characteristics on the abundance or availability of fish in different areas in different periods and to make the forecasts of the same, 2. to make analysis of time series catch data (ARIMA models) to make forecasts of catch in the next year or in a particular period during next year. There is some evidence of suitability of these approaches to Indian marine fisheries but attempts aiming at comprehensive studies should be made. In the area of long term forecasts, considerable work is done in India on single species assessments but in the context of multi species, multigear nature of Indian marine fisheries, assessments of all species together in a mixed fishery are urgently required for effective managements of fisheries.