8 resultados para Discrete Time Branching Processes

em Cochin University of Science


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In everyday life different flows of customers to avail some service facility or other at some service station are experienced. In some of these situations, congestion of items arriving for service, because an item cannot be serviced Immediately on arrival, is unavoidable. A queuing system can be described as customers arriving for service, waiting for service if it is not immediate, and if having waited for service, leaving the system after being served. Examples Include shoppers waiting in front of checkout stands in a supermarket, Programs waiting to be processed by a digital computer, ships in the harbor Waiting to be unloaded, persons waiting at railway booking office etc. A queuing system is specified completely by the following characteristics: input or arrival pattern, service pattern, number of service channels, System capacity, queue discipline and number of service stages. The ultimate objective of solving queuing models is to determine the characteristics that measure the performance of the system

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The term reliability of an equipment or device is often meant to indicate the probability that it carries out the functions expected of it adequately or without failure and within specified performance limits at a given age for a desired mission time when put to use under the designated application and operating environmental stress. A broad classification of the approaches employed in relation to reliability studies can be made as probabilistic and deterministic, where the main interest in the former is to device tools and methods to identify the random mechanism governing the failure process through a proper statistical frame work, while the latter addresses the question of finding the causes of failure and steps to reduce individual failures thereby enhancing reliability. In the probabilistic attitude to which the present study subscribes to, the concept of life distribution, a mathematical idealisation that describes the failure times, is fundamental and a basic question a reliability analyst has to settle is the form of the life distribution. It is for no other reason that a major share of the literature on the mathematical theory of reliability is focussed on methods of arriving at reasonable models of failure times and in showing the failure patterns that induce such models. The application of the methodology of life time distributions is not confined to the assesment of endurance of equipments and systems only, but ranges over a wide variety of scientific investigations where the word life time may not refer to the length of life in the literal sense, but can be concieved in its most general form as a non-negative random variable. Thus the tools developed in connection with modelling life time data have found applications in other areas of research such as actuarial science, engineering, biomedical sciences, economics, extreme value theory etc.

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This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

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Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Sciene ans Technology

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For the discrete-time quadratic map xt+1=4xt(1-xt) the evolution equation for a class of non-uniform initial densities is obtained. It is shown that in the t to infinity limit all of them approach the invariant density for the map.

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The service quality of any sector has two major aspects namely technical and functional. Technical quality can be attained by maintaining technical specification as decided by the organization. Functional quality refers to the manner which service is delivered to customer which can be assessed by the customer feed backs. A field survey was conducted based on the management tool SERVQUAL, by designing 28 constructs under 7 dimensions of service quality. Stratified sampling techniques were used to get 336 valid responses and the gap scores of expectations and perceptions are analyzed using statistical techniques to identify the weakest dimension. To assess the technical aspects of availability six months live outage data of base transceiver were collected. The statistical and exploratory techniques were used to model the network performance. The failure patterns have been modeled in competing risk models and probability distribution of service outage and restorations were parameterized. Since the availability of network is a function of the reliability and maintainability of the network elements, any service provider who wishes to keep up their service level agreements on availability should be aware of the variability of these elements and its effects on interactions. The availability variations were studied by designing a discrete time event simulation model with probabilistic input parameters. The probabilistic distribution parameters arrived from live data analysis was used to design experiments to define the availability domain of the network under consideration. The availability domain can be used as a reference for planning and implementing maintenance activities. A new metric is proposed which incorporates a consistency index along with key service parameters that can be used to compare the performance of different service providers. The developed tool can be used for reliability analysis of mobile communication systems and assumes greater significance in the wake of mobile portability facility. It is also possible to have a relative measure of the effectiveness of different service providers.

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Use of short fibers as reinforcing fillers in rubber composites is on an increasing trend. They are popular due to the possibility of obtaining anisotropic properties, ease of processing and economy. In the preparation of these composites short fibers are incorporated on two roll mixing mills or in internal mixers. This is a high energy intensive time consuming process. This calls for developing less energy intensive and less time consuming processes for incorporation and distribution of short fibers in the rubber matrix. One method for this is to incorporate fibers in the latex stage. The present study is primarily to optimize the preparation of short fiber- natural rubber composite by latex stage compounding and to evaluate the resulting composites in terms of mechanical, dynamic mechanical and thermal properties. A synthetic fiber (Nylon) and a natural fiber (Coir) are used to evaluate the advantages of the processing through latex stage. To extract the full reinforcing potential of the coir fibers the macro fibers are converted to micro fibers through chemical and mechanical means. The thesis is presented in 7 chapters

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The objective of this thesis is to study the time dependent behaviour of some complex queueing and inventory models. It contains a detailed analysis of the basic stochastic processes underlying these models. In the theory of queues, analysis of time dependent behaviour is an area.very little developed compared to steady state theory. Tine dependence seems certainly worth studying from an application point of view but unfortunately, the analytic difficulties are considerable. Glosod form solutions are complicated even for such simple models as M/M /1. Outside M/>M/1, time dependent solutions have been found only in special cases and involve most often double transforms which provide very little insight into the behaviour of the queueing systems themselves. In inventory theory also There is not much results available giving the time dependent solution of the system size probabilities. Our emphasis is on explicit results free from all types of transforms and the method used may be of special interest to a wide variety of problems having regenerative structure.