Foreign exchange reserves in India and China

Professor Irma Glicman Adelman, an Irish Economist working in California University at Berkely, in her research work on ‘Development Over Two Centuries’, which is published in the Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 1995, has identified that India, along with China, would be one of the largest economies in this 21st Century. She has stated that the period 1700 - 1820 is the period of Netherlands, the period 1820 - 1890 is the period of England the period 1890 - 2000 is the period of America and this 21st Century is the century of China and India. World Bank has also identified India as one of the leading players of this century after China. India will be third largest economy after USA and China. India will challenge the Global Economic Order in the next 15 years. India will overtake Italian economy in 2015, England economy in 2020, Japan economy in 2025 and USA economy in 2050 (China will overtake Japan economy in 2016 and USA economy in 2027). India has the following advantages compared with other economies. India is 4th largest GDP in the world in terms of Purchasing Power. India is third fastest growing economy in the world after China and Vietnam. Service sector contributes around 57% of GDP. The share of agriculture is around 17% and Manufacture is 16% in 2005 - 2006. This is a character of a developed country. Expected GDP growth rate is 10% shortly (It has come down from 9.2% in 2006 - 2007 to 6.2% during 2008 - 2009 due to recession. It is only a temporary phenomenon). India has $284 billion as Foreign Exchange Reserve as on today. India had just $1 billion as Foreign Exchange Reserve when it opened its economy in the year 1991. In this research paper an attempt has been made to study the two booming economies of the globe with respect to their foreign exchange reserves. This study mainly based on secondary data published by respective governments and various studies done on this area

An Analysis of Work Related Stress Factor in Selected Industries in Kerala ,India

Occupational stress is becoming a major issue in both corporate and social agenda .In industrialized countries, there have been quite dramatic changes in the conditions at work, during the last decade ,caused by economic, social and technical development. As a consequence, the people today at work are exposed to high quantitative and qualitative demands as well as hard competition caused by global economy. A recent report says that ailments due to work related stress is likely to cost India’s exchequer around 72000 crores between 2009 and 2015. Though India is a fast developing country, it is yet to create facilities to mitigate the adverse effects of work stress, more over only little efforts have been made to assess the work related stress.In the absence of well defined standards to assess the work related stress in India, an attempt is made in this direction to develop the factors for the evaluation of work stress. Accordingly, with the help of existing literature and in consultation with the safety experts, seven factors for the evaluation of work stress is developed. An instrument ( Questionnaire) was developed using these seven factors for the evaluation of work stress .The validity , and unidimensionality of the questionnaire was ensured by confirmatory factor analysis. The reliability of the questionnaire was ensured before administration. While analyzing the relation ship between the variables, it is noted that no relationship exists between them, and hence the above factors are treated as independent factors/ variables for the purpose of research .Initially five profit making manufacturing industries, under public sector in the state of Kerala, were selected for the study. The influence of factors responsible for work stress is analyzed in these industries. These industries were classified in to two types, namely chemical and heavy engineering ,based on the product manufactured and work environment and the analysis is further carried out for these two categories.The variation of work stress with different age , designation and experience of the employees are analyzed by means of one-way ANOVA. Further three different type of modelling of work stress, namely factor modelling, structural equation modelling and multinomial logistic regression modelling was done to analyze the association of factors responsible for work stress. All these models are found equally good in predicting the work stress.The present study indicates that work stress exists among the employees in public sector industries in Kerala. Employees belonging to age group 40-45yrs and experience groups 15-20yrs had relatively higher work demand ,low job control, and low support at work. Low job control was noted among lower designation levels, particularly at the worker level in these industries. Hence the instrument developed using the seven factors namely demand, control, manager support, peer support, relationship, role and change can be effectively used for the evaluation of work stress in industries.

Power Profile of Effective Managers: An Exploration among the Branch Managers of a Commercial Bank in Kerala

Managers are central to any fuction in a complex and developed society. Their talents are reckoned to be cardinal in developed economies and a basic yearning of all developing economies.In order to survive and produce results in a turbulent and transient environment, the task is to understand the nature of factors contributing to managerial effectiveness. This study is an attempt towards this core issue of the present from a different perspective. This study tries to focus attention on a group of managers functioning in the field of banking, a core sector in the country's economy. The gamut of economic activities in Kerala being predominantly service-oriented, importance of commercial banking is almost indisputable. Though economists would argue that the disproportionate development of service sector is anomalous when viewed against the hazy scenarios in the primary and secondary sectors of the state’s economy, the extent and pace of growth in the banking sector has had its dole meted out by ambitious and productive managers fiinctioning in the field. Researcher’s attempt here is to thresh the grain and chaff among bank managers in terms of their effectiveness and to account for the variations in the light of their ability to affect the thoughts and actions of their subordinates. To put it succinctly, the attempt herein is to explain the effectiveness of bank managers in the light of their ‘Power Profile’ taken to be comprising Power Differentials, Power Bases, their Visibility and Credibility in the organisation and, the Power Styles typically used by them for influencing subordinates.

Optimum growth requirements of nitrifying consortia developed from treated sewage

The optimum growth requirements of two nitrifying consortia developed from treated sewage by enrichment technique were determined by a series of experiments. There was total inhibition of nitrification at above 2.75 g r' NH/- Nand 2.5g r' N02' - N and the ammonia oxidizing consortium preferred a pH at 8.5 and the nitrite oxidizing consortium a pH of 7.5 as the optima for nitrification. Optimum temperatures were between 20° and 30°C for both the groups. As the rate of airnow was increased from I to 7 Ilmin, the build-up of N02- -N increased 10-fold and the consumption of N02- -N increased by a factor of 28.8 implying that the ammonia oxidizing consortium in a bioreactor required three times more aeration than that for nitrite oxidizers for ex pressing their full nitrifying potential. These data directly contribute for developing a fermentati on process for the mass production of nitrifiers as well as for designing bio reactors for nitrifying sewage.

Learning From Cross Country Experiences In Housing: A Micro Finance Approach For Inclusive Housing In India

Housing is one of the primary human needs. It is second only to the need for food and clothing. From a macro perspective, housing is an industry that can prove itself to be a growth engine for a nation, particularly a developing nation like India. Housing has been one of the top priorities for the various governments in India since the seventies. The need for housing has been increasing at a phenomenal pace in India and so also the need for housing finance. Since the growth in supply of housing could not keep pace with the growth in its demand, housing shortage has been on the rise over the years. Housing finance industry which was relatively dormant till the early nineties underwent sweeping changes ever since the initiation of financial sector deregulation measures. Financial deregulation measures brought about several changes in this industry, the first and foremost being the fast growth rate in the industry coupled with cutthroat competition among the industry players. This trend has been quite prominent since the entry of commercial banks into this arena. Accordingly, there has been a surge in the growth of retail (personal) loans segment, particularly in respect of housing loans. This is evident from the fact that housing loans disbursed by banks as a percentage of their total loans has increased from just 2.79% as of end-March 1997 to as high as 12.52% as of end-March 2007. Thus, there has been an unprecedented growth rate in the disbursement of housing loans by banks, and as of 31 March 2007 the outstanding balance of housing loans by all banks in India stands at Rs.230689 Crore, as against just Rs.7946 Crore as of 31 March 1997, the growth rate being 35.82 %CAGR (for the eleven years’ period, FY 1997-‘2007). However, in spite of the impressive growth in housing finance over the years, there are growing apprehensions regarding its inclusiveness, i.e. accessibility to the common man, the underprivileged sections of the society to housing finance etc. Of late, it is widely recognized that formal housing finance system, particularly the commercial banks (CBs) – most dominant among the players – is fast becoming exclusive in operations, with nearly 90% of the total housing credit going to the rich and upper middle income group, primarily the salaried class. The case of housing finance companies (HFCs) is quite similar in this regard. The poor and other marginalized sections are often deprived of adequate credit facilities for housing purpose. Studies have revealed that urban housing poverty is much more acute than the rural probably because of the very fast process of urbanization coupled with constant rural to urban migration

From Market Concentration to Market Diversification: WTO and the Marine Products Exports from Kerala- Using ARIMA

Marine product export does something pivotal in the fish export economy of Kerala. The post WTO period has witnessed a strengthening of food safety and quality standards applied on food products in the developed countries. In the case of the primary importers, like the EU, the US and Japan, market actions will have far reaching reverberations and implications for the marine product exports from developing nations. The article focuses on Kerala’s marine product exports that had been targeting the markets of the EU, the US and Japan, and the concomitant shift in markets owing to the stringent stipulations under the WTO regime. Despite the overwhelming importance of the EU in the marine product exports of the state, the pronounced influence of irregular components on the quantity and value of marine product exports to the EU in the post WTO period raises concern. However, the tendencies of market diversification validated by the forecast generated for the emerging markets of the SEA, the MEA and others, to an extent, allay the pressures on the marine product export sector of the state which had hitherto relied heavily on the markets of the EU, the US and Japan

Assessment of Energy Conservation in Indian Cement Industry and Forecasting of Co2 Emissions

Cement industry ranks 2nd in energy consumption among the industries in India. It is one of the major emitter of CO2, due to combustion of fossil fuel and calcination process. As the huge amount of CO2 emissions cause severe environment problems, the efficient and effective utilization of energy is a major concern in Indian cement industry. The main objective of the research work is to assess the energy cosumption and energy conservation of the Indian cement industry and to predict future trends in cement production and reduction of CO2 emissions. In order to achieve this objective, a detailed energy and exergy analysis of a typical cement plant in Kerala was carried out. The data on fuel usage, electricity consumption, amount of clinker and cement production were also collected from a few selected cement industries in India for the period 2001 - 2010 and the CO2 emissions were estimated. A complete decomposition method was used for the analysis of change in CO2 emissions during the period 2001 - 2010 by categorising the cement industries according to the specific thermal energy consumption. A basic forecasting model for the cement production trend was developed by using the system dynamic approach and the model was validated with the data collected from the selected cement industries. The cement production and CO2 emissions from the industries were also predicted with the base year as 2010. The sensitivity analysis of the forecasting model was conducted and found satisfactory. The model was then modified for the total cement production in India to predict the cement production and CO2 emissions for the next 21 years under three different scenarios. The parmeters that influence CO2 emissions like population and GDP growth rate, demand of cement and its production, clinker consumption and energy utilization are incorporated in these scenarios. The existing growth rate of the population and cement production in the year 2010 were used in the baseline scenario. In the scenario-1 (S1) the growth rate of population was assumed to be gradually decreasing and finally reach zero by the year 2030, while in scenario-2 (S2) a faster decline in the growth rate was assumed such that zero growth rate is achieved in the year 2020. The mitigation strategiesfor the reduction of CO2 emissions from the cement production were identified and analyzed in the energy management scenarioThe energy and exergy analysis of the raw mill of the cement plant revealed that the exergy utilization was worse than energy utilization. The energy analysis of the kiln system showed that around 38% of heat energy is wasted through exhaust gases of the preheater and cooler of the kiln sysetm. This could be recovered by the waste heat recovery system. A secondary insulation shell was also recommended for the kiln in the plant in order to prevent heat loss and enhance the efficiency of the plant. The decomposition analysis of the change in CO2 emissions during 2001- 2010 showed that the activity effect was the main factor for CO2 emissions for the cement industries since it is directly dependent on economic growth of the country. The forecasting model showed that 15.22% and 29.44% of CO2 emissions reduction can be achieved by the year 2030 in scenario- (S1) and scenario-2 (S2) respectively. In analysing the energy management scenario, it was assumed that 25% of electrical energy supply to the cement plants is replaced by renewable energy. The analysis revealed that the recovery of waste heat and the use of renewable energy could lead to decline in CO2 emissions 7.1% for baseline scenario, 10.9 % in scenario-1 (S1) and 11.16% in scenario-2 (S2) in 2030. The combined scenario considering population stabilization by the year 2020, 25% of contribution from renewable energy sources of the cement industry and 38% thermal energy from the waste heat streams shows that CO2 emissions from Indian cement industry could be reduced by nearly 37% in the year 2030. This would reduce a substantial level of greenhouse gas load to the environment. The cement industry will remain one of the critical sectors for India to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target. India’s cement production will continue to grow in the near future due to its GDP growth. The control of population, improvement in plant efficiency and use of renewable energy are the important options for the mitigation of CO2 emissions from Indian cement industries

A study on the performance of flexible pavements on mature soil subgrades

The country has witnessed tremendous increase in the vehicle population and increased axle loading pattern during the last decade, leaving its road network overstressed and leading to premature failure. The type of deterioration present in the pavement should be considered for determining whether it has a functional or structural deficiency, so that appropriate overlay type and design can be developed. Structural failure arises from the conditions that adversely affect the load carrying capability of the pavement structure. Inadequate thickness, cracking, distortion and disintegration cause structural deficiency. Functional deficiency arises when the pavement does not provide a smooth riding surface and comfort to the user. This can be due to poor surface friction and texture, hydro planning and splash from wheel path, rutting and excess surface distortion such as potholes, corrugation, faulting, blow up, settlement, heaves etc. Functional condition determines the level of service provided by the facility to its users at a particular time and also the Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC), thus influencing the national economy. Prediction of the pavement deterioration is helpful to assess the remaining effective service life (RSL) of the pavement structure on the basis of reduction in performance levels, and apply various alternative designs and rehabilitation strategies with a long range funding requirement for pavement preservation. In addition, they can predict the impact of treatment on the condition of the sections. The infrastructure prediction models can thus be classified into four groups, namely primary response models, structural performance models, functional performance models and damage models. The factors affecting the deterioration of the roads are very complex in nature and vary from place to place. Hence there is need to have a thorough study of the deterioration mechanism under varied climatic zones and soil conditions before arriving at a definite strategy of road improvement. Realizing the need for a detailed study involving all types of roads in the state with varying traffic and soil conditions, the present study has been attempted. This study attempts to identify the parameters that affect the performance of roads and to develop performance models suitable to Kerala conditions. A critical review of the various factors that contribute to the pavement performance has been presented based on the data collected from selected road stretches and also from five corporations of Kerala. These roads represent the urban conditions as well as National Highways, State Highways and Major District Roads in the sub urban and rural conditions. This research work is a pursuit towards a study of the road condition of Kerala with respect to varying soil, traffic and climatic conditions, periodic performance evaluation of selected roads of representative types and development of distress prediction models for roads of Kerala. In order to achieve this aim, the study is focused into 2 parts. The first part deals with the study of the pavement condition and subgrade soil properties of urban roads distributed in 5 Corporations of Kerala; namely Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Kochi, Thrissur and Kozhikode. From selected 44 roads, 68 homogeneous sections were studied. The data collected on the functional and structural condition of the surface include pavement distress in terms of cracks, potholes, rutting, raveling and pothole patching. The structural strength of the pavement was measured as rebound deflection using Benkelman Beam deflection studies. In order to collect the details of the pavement layers and find out the subgrade soil properties, trial pits were dug and the in-situ field density was found using the Sand Replacement Method. Laboratory investigations were carried out to find out the subgrade soil properties, soil classification, Atterberg limits, Optimum Moisture Content, Field Moisture Content and 4 days soaked CBR. The relative compaction in the field was also determined. The traffic details were also collected by conducting traffic volume count survey and axle load survey. From the data thus collected, the strength of the pavement was calculated which is a function of the layer coefficient and thickness and is represented as Structural Number (SN). This was further related to the CBR value of the soil and the Modified Structural Number (MSN) was found out. The condition of the pavement was represented in terms of the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) which is a function of the distress of the surface at the time of the investigation and calculated in the present study using deduct value method developed by U S Army Corps of Engineers. The influence of subgrade soil type and pavement condition on the relationship between MSN and rebound deflection was studied using appropriate plots for predominant types of soil and for classified value of Pavement Condition Index. The relationship will be helpful for practicing engineers to design the overlay thickness required for the pavement, without conducting the BBD test. Regression analysis using SPSS was done with various trials to find out the best fit relationship between the rebound deflection and CBR, and other soil properties for Gravel, Sand, Silt & Clay fractions. The second part of the study deals with periodic performance evaluation of selected road stretches representing National Highway (NH), State Highway (SH) and Major District Road (MDR), located in different geographical conditions and with varying traffic. 8 road sections divided into 15 homogeneous sections were selected for the study and 6 sets of continuous periodic data were collected. The periodic data collected include the functional and structural condition in terms of distress (pothole, pothole patch, cracks, rutting and raveling), skid resistance using a portable skid resistance pendulum, surface unevenness using Bump Integrator, texture depth using sand patch method and rebound deflection using Benkelman Beam. Baseline data of the study stretches were collected as one time data. Pavement history was obtained as secondary data. Pavement drainage characteristics were collected in terms of camber or cross slope using camber board (slope meter) for the carriage way and shoulders, availability of longitudinal side drain, presence of valley, terrain condition, soil moisture content, water table data, High Flood Level, rainfall data, land use and cross slope of the adjoining land. These data were used for finding out the drainage condition of the study stretches. Traffic studies were conducted, including classified volume count and axle load studies. From the field data thus collected, the progression of each parameter was plotted for all the study roads; and validated for their accuracy. Structural Number (SN) and Modified Structural Number (MSN) were calculated for the study stretches. Progression of the deflection, distress, unevenness, skid resistance and macro texture of the study roads were evaluated. Since the deterioration of the pavement is a complex phenomena contributed by all the above factors, pavement deterioration models were developed as non linear regression models, using SPSS with the periodic data collected for all the above road stretches. General models were developed for cracking progression, raveling progression, pothole progression and roughness progression using SPSS. A model for construction quality was also developed. Calibration of HDM–4 pavement deterioration models for local conditions was done using the data for Cracking, Raveling, Pothole and Roughness. Validation was done using the data collected in 2013. The application of HDM-4 to compare different maintenance and rehabilitation options were studied considering the deterioration parameters like cracking, pothole and raveling. The alternatives considered for analysis were base alternative with crack sealing and patching, overlay with 40 mm BC using ordinary bitumen, overlay with 40 mm BC using Natural Rubber Modified Bitumen and an overlay of Ultra Thin White Topping. Economic analysis of these options was done considering the Life Cycle Cost (LCC). The average speed that can be obtained by applying these options were also compared. The results were in favour of Ultra Thin White Topping over flexible pavements. Hence, Design Charts were also plotted for estimation of maximum wheel load stresses for different slab thickness under different soil conditions. The design charts showed the maximum stress for a particular slab thickness and different soil conditions incorporating different k values. These charts can be handy for a design engineer. Fuzzy rule based models developed for site specific conditions were compared with regression models developed using SPSS. The Riding Comfort Index (RCI) was calculated and correlated with unevenness to develop a relationship. Relationships were developed between Skid Number and Macro Texture of the pavement. The effort made through this research work will be helpful to highway engineers in understanding the behaviour of flexible pavements in Kerala conditions and for arriving at suitable maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. Key Words: Flexible Pavements – Performance Evaluation – Urban Roads – NH – SH and other roads – Performance Models – Deflection – Riding Comfort Index – Skid Resistance – Texture Depth – Unevenness – Ultra Thin White Topping