Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Assessment of Energy Conservation in Indian Cement Industry and Forecasting of Co2 Emissions

Cement industry ranks 2nd in energy consumption among the industries in India. It is one of the major emitter of CO2, due to combustion of fossil fuel and calcination process. As the huge amount of CO2 emissions cause severe environment problems, the efficient and effective utilization of energy is a major concern in Indian cement industry. The main objective of the research work is to assess the energy cosumption and energy conservation of the Indian cement industry and to predict future trends in cement production and reduction of CO2 emissions. In order to achieve this objective, a detailed energy and exergy analysis of a typical cement plant in Kerala was carried out. The data on fuel usage, electricity consumption, amount of clinker and cement production were also collected from a few selected cement industries in India for the period 2001 - 2010 and the CO2 emissions were estimated. A complete decomposition method was used for the analysis of change in CO2 emissions during the period 2001 - 2010 by categorising the cement industries according to the specific thermal energy consumption. A basic forecasting model for the cement production trend was developed by using the system dynamic approach and the model was validated with the data collected from the selected cement industries. The cement production and CO2 emissions from the industries were also predicted with the base year as 2010. The sensitivity analysis of the forecasting model was conducted and found satisfactory. The model was then modified for the total cement production in India to predict the cement production and CO2 emissions for the next 21 years under three different scenarios. The parmeters that influence CO2 emissions like population and GDP growth rate, demand of cement and its production, clinker consumption and energy utilization are incorporated in these scenarios. The existing growth rate of the population and cement production in the year 2010 were used in the baseline scenario. In the scenario-1 (S1) the growth rate of population was assumed to be gradually decreasing and finally reach zero by the year 2030, while in scenario-2 (S2) a faster decline in the growth rate was assumed such that zero growth rate is achieved in the year 2020. The mitigation strategiesfor the reduction of CO2 emissions from the cement production were identified and analyzed in the energy management scenarioThe energy and exergy analysis of the raw mill of the cement plant revealed that the exergy utilization was worse than energy utilization. The energy analysis of the kiln system showed that around 38% of heat energy is wasted through exhaust gases of the preheater and cooler of the kiln sysetm. This could be recovered by the waste heat recovery system. A secondary insulation shell was also recommended for the kiln in the plant in order to prevent heat loss and enhance the efficiency of the plant. The decomposition analysis of the change in CO2 emissions during 2001- 2010 showed that the activity effect was the main factor for CO2 emissions for the cement industries since it is directly dependent on economic growth of the country. The forecasting model showed that 15.22% and 29.44% of CO2 emissions reduction can be achieved by the year 2030 in scenario- (S1) and scenario-2 (S2) respectively. In analysing the energy management scenario, it was assumed that 25% of electrical energy supply to the cement plants is replaced by renewable energy. The analysis revealed that the recovery of waste heat and the use of renewable energy could lead to decline in CO2 emissions 7.1% for baseline scenario, 10.9 % in scenario-1 (S1) and 11.16% in scenario-2 (S2) in 2030. The combined scenario considering population stabilization by the year 2020, 25% of contribution from renewable energy sources of the cement industry and 38% thermal energy from the waste heat streams shows that CO2 emissions from Indian cement industry could be reduced by nearly 37% in the year 2030. This would reduce a substantial level of greenhouse gas load to the environment. The cement industry will remain one of the critical sectors for India to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target. India’s cement production will continue to grow in the near future due to its GDP growth. The control of population, improvement in plant efficiency and use of renewable energy are the important options for the mitigation of CO2 emissions from Indian cement industries

A new method for load matching in multimode microwave feating applicators based on the use of dielectric layer superposition

Usage of a dielectric multilayer around a dielectric Sample is studied as a means for improving the efficiency in multimode microwave- heating cavities. The results show that by using additional dielectric constant layers the appearance of undesired reflections at the sample-air interface is avoided and higher power -absorption rates within the sample and high -efficiency designs are obtained

Influence Of Forecasting, Planning And Controlling On The Performance Of Small And Medium Enterprises

Production Planning and Control (PPC) systems have grown and changed because of the developments in planning tools and models as well as the use of computers and information systems in this area. Though so much is available in research journals, practice of PPC is lagging behind and does not use much from published research. The practices of PPC in SMEs lag behind because of many reasons, which need to be explored This research work deals with the effect of identified variables such as forecasting, planning and control methods adopted, demographics of the key person, standardization practices followed, effect of training, learning and IT usage on firm performance. A model and framework has been developed based on literature. Empirical testing of the model has been done after collecting data using a questionnaire schedule administered among the selected respondents from Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in India. Final data included 382 responses. Hypotheses linking SME performance with the use of forecasting, planning and controlling were formed and tested. Exploratory factor analysis was used for data reduction and for identifying the factor structure. High and low performing firms were classified using a Logistic Regression model. A confirmatory factor analysis was used to study the structural relationship between firm performance and dependent variables.

Depth wise variation of microbial load in the soils of midland region of Kerala: a function of important soil physicochemical characteristics and nutrients

Soil microorganisms play a main part in organic matter decomposition and are consequently necessary to soil ecosystem processes maintaining primary productivity of plants. In light of current concerns about the impact of cultivation and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem performance, it is vital to expand a complete understanding of the microbial community ecology in our soils. In the present study we measured the depth wise profile of microbial load in relation with important soil physicochemical characteristics (soil temperature, soil pH, moisture content, organic carbon and available NPK) of the soil samples collected from Mahatma Gandhi University Campus, Kottayam (midland region of Kerala). Soil cores (30 cm deep) were taken and the cores were separated into three 10-cm depths to examine depth wise distribution. In the present study, bacterial load ranged from 141×105 to 271×105 CFU/g (10cm depth), from 80×105 to 131×105 CFU/g (20cm depth) and from 260×104 to 47×105 CFU/g (30cm depth). Fungal load varies from 124×103 to 27×104 CFU/g, from 61×103 to110×103 CFU/g and from 16×103 to 49×103 CFU/g at 10, 20 and 30 cm respectively. Actinomycetes count ranged from 129×103 to 60×104 CFU/g (10cm), from 70×103 to 31×104 CFU/g (20cm) and from 14×103 to 66×103 CFU/g (30cm). The study revealed that there was a significant difference in the depthwise distribution of microbial load and soil physico-chemical properties. Bacterial, fungal and actinomycetes load showed a decreasing trend with increasing depth at all the sites. Except pH all other physicochemical properties showed decreasing trend with increasing depth. The vertical profile of total microbial load was well matched with the depthwise profiles of soil nutrients and organic carbon that is microbial load was highest at the soil surface where organics and nutrients were highest

Acoustic Structure Interaction For Floating Structure Under Moving Load

The present thesis concentrates largely on sound radiation from floating structure due to moving load

Reducing Vibrio load in Artemia nauplii usingantimicrobial photodynamic therapy: a promising strategy to reduce antibiotic application in shrimp larviculture

We propose antimicrobial photodynamic therapy (aPDT) as an alternative strategy to reduce the use of antibiotics in shrimp larviculture systems. The growth of a multiple antibiotic resistant Vibrio harveyi strain was effectively controlled by treating the cells with Rose Bengal and photosensitizing for 30 min using a halogen lamp. This resulted in the death of > 50% of the cells within the first 10 min of exposure and the 50% reduction in the cell wall integrity after 30 min could be attributed to the destruction of outer membrane protein of V. harveyi by reactive oxygen intermediates produced during the photosensitization. Further, mesocosm experiments with V. harveyi and Artemia nauplii demonstrated that in 30 min, the aPDT could kill 78.9% and 91.2% of heterotrophic bacterial and Vibrio population respectively. In conclusion, the study demonstrated that aPDT with its rapid action and as yet unreported resistance development possibilities could be a propitious strategy to reduce the use of antibiotics in shrimp larviculture systems and thereby, avoid their hazardous effects on human health and the ecosystem at large.

A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Economic Dispatch using Neural Networks

This paper presents a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to economic dispatch (ED) using Radial Basis Function neural network. We formulate the ED as an N stage decision making problem. We propose a novel architecture to store Qvalues and present a learning algorithm to learn the weights of the neural network. Even though many stochastic search techniques like simulated annealing, genetic algorithm and evolutionary programming have been applied to ED, they require searching for the optimal solution for each load demand. Also they find limitation in handling stochastic cost functions. In our approach once we learn the Q-values, we can find the dispatch for any load demand. We have recently proposed a RL approach to ED. In that approach, we could find only the optimum dispatch for a set of specified discrete values of power demand. The performance of the proposed algorithm is validated by taking IEEE 6 bus system, considering transmission losses