29 resultados para Autoregressive Processes
em Cochin University of Science
Resumo:
A bivariate semi-Pareto distribution is introduced and characterized using geometric minimization. Autoregressive minification models for bivariate random vectors with bivariate semi-Pareto and bivariate Pareto distributions are also discussed. Multivariate generalizations of the distributions and the processes are briefly indicated.
Resumo:
This paper proposes different estimators for the parameters of SemiPareto and Pareto autoregressive minification processes The asymptotic properties of the estimators are established by showing that the SemiPareto process is α-mixing. Asymptotic variances of different moment and maximum likelihood estimators are compared.
Resumo:
The classical methods of analysing time series by Box-Jenkins approach assume that the observed series uctuates around changing levels with constant variance. That is, the time series is assumed to be of homoscedastic nature. However, the nancial time series exhibits the presence of heteroscedasticity in the sense that, it possesses non-constant conditional variance given the past observations. So, the analysis of nancial time series, requires the modelling of such variances, which may depend on some time dependent factors or its own past values. This lead to introduction of several classes of models to study the behaviour of nancial time series. See Taylor (1986), Tsay (2005), Rachev et al. (2007). The class of models, used to describe the evolution of conditional variances is referred to as stochastic volatility modelsThe stochastic models available to analyse the conditional variances, are based on either normal or log-normal distributions. One of the objectives of the present study is to explore the possibility of employing some non-Gaussian distributions to model the volatility sequences and then study the behaviour of the resulting return series. This lead us to work on the related problem of statistical inference, which is the main contribution of the thesis
Resumo:
The aim of the present study is to understand the biennial scale stratosphere-troposphere interactions over India, and synoptic to interannual timescale meridional stratosphere-troposhere exchanges caused by upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric longwaves using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and satellite measured total ozone data. The biennial timescale interaction between lower stratosphere and troposphere over Thumba is analysed using high-resolution radiosonde data. The results suggest that TBO and QBO are two different phenomena with nearly biennial periodicity. Interannual timescale meridional stratosphere-troposphere exchanges caused by the newly documented Asia Pacific Wave (APW) were analysed using ozone as tracer of atmospheric motion. Synoptic timescale meridional stratosphere-troposhere exchanges caused by subtropical upper tropospheric long waves over Asia were studied using global total ozone measurements from TOMS. This research work can be extended to study the influence of decadal scale epochal nature in Indian summer monsoon activity on the APW generated total ozone anomalies around the globe and the trend estimates in total ozone
Resumo:
The mangrove ecosystem is one of the earth’s most endangered ecosystems. In this study, geochemical features of three mangrove ecosystems, Mangalavanam, Vypeen and Nettoor were compared. Water, sediment and core samples were collected from these stations for a period of one year. Nutrients, organic compounds orgnic carbon and hydrographical parameters of the samples were estimated. The present study revealed higher concentration of carbon in the surface sediments. The major temporary or ultimate sink for various pollutants in estuaries is the sedimentary reservoir, including intertidal areas. In the present study, higher values for dissolved nutrients, POC and carbohydrates were observed during low tide.
Resumo:
In this article it is proved that the stationary Markov sequences generated by minification models are ergodic and uniformly mixing. These results are used to establish the optimal properties of estimators for the parameters in the model. The problem of estimating the parameters in the exponential minification model is discussed in detail.
Resumo:
This paper presents gamma stochastic volatility models and investigates its distributional and time series properties. The parameter estimators obtained by the method of moments are shown analytically to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The simulation results indicate that the estimators behave well. The insample analysis shows that return models with gamma autoregressive stochastic volatility processes capture the leptokurtic nature of return distributions and the slowly decaying autocorrelation functions of squared stock index returns for the USA and UK. In comparison with GARCH and EGARCH models, the gamma autoregressive model picks up the persistence in volatility for the US and UK index returns but not the volatility persistence for the Canadian and Japanese index returns. The out-of-sample analysis indicates that the gamma autoregressive model has a superior volatility forecasting performance compared to GARCH and EGARCH models.
Resumo:
Rare earth metal ion exchanged (La3+, Ce3+, RE3+) KFAU-Y zeolites were prepared by simple ion-exchange methods and have been characterized using different physico-chemical techniques. In this paper a novel application of solid acid catalysts in the dehydration/ Beckmann rearrangement of aldoximes; benzaldoxime and 4-methoxybenzaldoxime is reported. Dehydration/Beckmann rearrangement reactions of benzaldoxime and 4-methoxybenzaldoxime is carried out in a continuous down flow reactor at 473K. 4-Methoxybenzaldoxime gave both Beckmann rearrangement product (4-methoxyphenylformamide) and dehydration product (4-methoxybenzonitrile) in high overall yields. The difference in behavior of the aldoximes is explained in terms of electronic effects. The production of benzonitrile was near quantitative under heterogeneous reaction conditions. The optimal protocol allows nitriles to be synthesized in good yields through the dehydration of aldoximes. Time on stream studies show a fast decline in the activity of the catalyst due to neutralization of acid sites by the basic reactant and product molecules.
Resumo:
Ship recycling has been considered as the best means to dispose off an obsolete ship. The current state of art of technology combined with the demands of sustainable developments from the global maritime industrial sector has modified the status of erstwhile ‘ship breaking’ involving ship scrap business to a modern industry undertaking dismantling of ships and recycling/reusing the dismantled products in a supply chain of pre owned product market by following the principles of recycling. Industries will have to formulate a set of best practices and blend them with the engineering activities for producing better quality products, improving the productivity and for achieving improved performances related to sustainable development. Improved performance by industries in a sustainable development perspective is accomplished only by implementing the 4E principles, ie.,. ecofriendliness, engineering efficiency, energy conservation and ergonomics in their core operations. The present study has done a comprehensive investigation into various ship recycling operations for formulating a set of best practices.Being the ultimate life cycle stage of a ship, ship recycling activities incorporate certain commercial procedures well in advance to facilitate the objectives of dismantling and recycling/reusing of various parts of the vessel. Thorough knowledge regarding these background procedures in ship recycling is essential for examining and understanding the industrial business operations associated with it. As a first step, the practices followed in merchant shipping operations regarding the decision on decommissioning have been and made available in the thesis. Brief description about the positioning methods and important preparations for the most feasible ship recycling method ie.,. beach method have been provided as a part of the outline of the background information. Available sources of guidelines, codes and rules & regulations for ship recycling have been compiled and included in the discussion.Very brief summary of practices in major ship recycling destinations has been prepared and listed for providing an overview of the global ship recycling activities. The present status of ship recycling by treating it as a full fledged engineering industry has been brought out to establish the need for looking into the development of the best practices. Major engineering attributes of ship as a unique engineering product and the significant influencing factors on her life cycle stage operations have been studied and added to the information base on ship recycling. Role of ship recycling industry as an important player in global sustainable development efforts has been reviewed by analysing the benefits of ship recycling. A brief synopsis on the state of art of ship recycling in major international ship recycling centres has also been incorporated in the backdrop knowledgebase generation on ship recycling processes.Publications available in this field have been reviewed and classified into five subject categories viz., Infrastructure for recycling yards and methods of dismantling, Rules regarding ship recycling activities, Environmental and safety aspects of ship recycling, Role of naval architects and ship classification societies, Application of information technology and Demand forecasting. The inference from the literature survey have been summarised and recorded. Noticeable observations in the inference include need of creation of a comprehensive knowledgebase on ship recycling and its effective implementation in the industry and the insignificant involvement of naval architects and shipbuilding engineers in ship recycling industry. These two important inferences and the message conveyed by them have been addressed with due importance in the subsequent part of the present study.As a part of the study the importance of demand forecasting in ship recycling has been introduced and presented. A sample input for ship recycling data for implementation of computer based methods of demand forecasting has been presented in this section of the thesis.The interdisciplinary nature of engineering processes involved in ship recycling has been identified as one of the important features of this industry. The present study has identified more than a dozen major stake holders in ship recycling having their own interests and roles. It has also been observed that most of the ship recycling activities is carried out in South East Asian countries where the beach based ship recycling is done in yards without proper infrastructure support. A model of beach based ship recycling has been developed and the roles, responsibilities and the mutual interactions of the elements of the system have been documented as a part of the study Subsequently the need of a generation of a wide knowledgebase on ship recycling activities as pointed out by the literature survey has been addressed. The information base and source of expertise required to build a broad knowledgebase on ship recycling operations have been identified and tabulated. Eleven important ship recycling processes have been identified and a brief sketch of steps involved in these processes have been examined and addressed in detail. Based on these findings, a detailed sequential disassembly process plan of ship recycling has been prepared and charted. After having established the need of best practices in ship recycling initially, the present study here identifies development of a user friendly expert system for ship recycling process as one of the constituents of the proposed best practises. A user friendly expert system has been developed for beach based ship recycling processes and is named as Ship Recycling Recommender (SRR). Two important functions of SRR, first one for the ‘Administrators’, the stake holders at the helm of the ship recycling affairs and second one for the ‘Users’, the stake holders who execute the actual dismantling have been presented by highlighting the steps involved in the execution of the software. The important output generated, ie.,. recommended practices for ship dismantling processes and safe handling information on materials present onboard have been presented with the help of ship recycling reports generated by the expert system. A brief account of necessity of having a ship recycling work content estimation as part of the best practices has been presented in the study. This is supported by a detailed work estimation schedule for the same as one of the appendices.As mentioned earlier, a definite lack of involvement of naval architect has been observed in development of methodologies for improving the status of ship recycling industry. Present study has put forward a holistic approach to review the status of ship recycling not simply as end of life activity of all ‘time expired’ vessels, but as a focal point of integrating all life cycle activities. A new engineering design philosophy targeting sustainable development of marine industrial domain, named design for ship recycling has been identified, formulated and presented. A new model of ship life cycle has been proposed by adding few stages to the traditional life cycle after analysing their critical role in accomplishing clean and safe end of life and partial dismantling of ships. Two applications of design for ship recycling viz, recyclability of ships and her products and allotment of Green Safety Index for ships have been presented as a part of implementation of the philosophy in actual practice.
Resumo:
Pulsed photoacoustic measurements have been carried out in toluene at 532 nm wavelength using a Q-switched frequency doubled Nd:YAG laser. The variation of photoacoustic signal amplitude with incident laser power indicates that at lower laser powers one photon absorption takes place at this wavelength while a clear two photon absorption occurs in this liquid at higher laser powers. The studies made here demonstrate that pulsed photoacoustic technique is simple and effective for the investigation of multiphoton processes in liquids.
Resumo:
The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.
Resumo:
In the present thesis we have formulated the Dalgarno-Lewis procedure for two-and three-photon processes and an elegant alternate expressions are derived. Starting from a brief review on various multiphoton processes we have discussed the difficulties coming in the perturbative treatment of multiphoton processes. A small discussion on various available methods for studying multiphoton processes are presented in chapter 2. These theoretical treatments mainly concentrate on the evaluation of the higher order matrix elements coming in the perturbation theory. In chapter 3 we have described the use of Dalgarno-Lewis procedure and its implimentation on second order matrix elements. The analytical expressions for twophoton transition amplitude, two-photon ionization cross section, dipole dynamic polarizability and Kramers-Heiseberg are obtained in a unified manner. Fourth chapter is an extension of the implicit summation technique presented in chapter 3. We have clearly mentioned the advantage of our method, especially the analytical continuation of the relevant expressions suited for various values of radiation frequency which is also used for efficient numerical analysis. A possible extension of the work is to study various multiphoton processcs from the stark shifted first excited states of hydrogen atom. We can also extend this procedure for studying multiphoton processes in alkali atoms as well as Rydberg atoms. Also, instead of going for analytical expressions, one can try a complete numerical evaluation of the higher order matrix elements using this procedure.