Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Stability of Random Sums and Extremes

This study is about the stability of random sums and extremes.The difficulty in finding exact sampling distributions resulted in considerable problems of computing probabilities concerning the sums that involve a large number of terms.Functions of sample observations that are natural interest other than the sum,are the extremes,that is , the minimum and the maximum of the observations.Extreme value distributions also arise in problems like the study of size effect on material strengths,the reliability of parallel and series systems made up of large number of components,record values and assessing the levels of air pollution.It may be noticed that the theories of sums and extremes are mutually connected.For instance,in the search for asymptotic normality of sums ,it is assumed that at least the variance of the population is finite.In such cases the contributions of the extremes to the sum of independent and identically distributed(i.i.d) r.vs is negligible.

On Truncated Versions of Certain Measures of Inequality and Stability

The present study focuses attention on defining certain measures of income inequality for the truncated distributions and characterization of probability distributions using the functional form of these measures, extension of some measures of inequality and stability to higher dimensions, characterization of bivariate models using the above concepts and estimation of some measures of inequality using the Bayesian techniques. The thesis defines certain measures of income inequality for the truncated distributions and studies the effect of truncation upon these measures. An important measure used in Reliability theory, to measure the stability of the component is the residual entropy function. This concept can advantageously used as a measure of inequality of truncated distributions. The geometric mean comes up as handy tool in the measurement of income inequality. The geometric vitality function being the geometric mean of the truncated random variable can be advantageously utilized to measure inequality of the truncated distributions. The study includes problem of estimation of the Lorenz curve, Gini-index and variance of logarithms for the Pareto distribution using Bayesian techniques.

Mean Squared Residue Based Biclustering Algorithms for the Analysis of Gene Expression Data

Computational Biology is the research are that contributes to the analysis of biological data through the development of algorithms which will address significant research problems.The data from molecular biology includes DNA,RNA ,Protein and Gene expression data.Gene Expression Data provides the expression level of genes under different conditions.Gene expression is the process of transcribing the DNA sequence of a gene into mRNA sequences which in turn are later translated into proteins.The number of copies of mRNA produced is called the expression level of a gene.Gene expression data is organized in the form of a matrix. Rows in the matrix represent genes and columns in the matrix represent experimental conditions.Experimental conditions can be different tissue types or time points.Entries in the gene expression matrix are real values.Through the analysis of gene expression data it is possible to determine the behavioral patterns of genes such as similarity of their behavior,nature of their interaction,their respective contribution to the same pathways and so on. Similar expression patterns are exhibited by the genes participating in the same biological process.These patterns have immense relevance and application in bioinformatics and clinical research.Theses patterns are used in the medical domain for aid in more accurate diagnosis,prognosis,treatment planning.drug discovery and protein network analysis.To identify various patterns from gene expression data,data mining techniques are essential.Clustering is an important data mining technique for the analysis of gene expression data.To overcome the problems associated with clustering,biclustering is introduced.Biclustering refers to simultaneous clustering of both rows and columns of a data matrix. Clustering is a global whereas biclustering is a local model.Discovering local expression patterns is essential for identfying many genetic pathways that are not apparent otherwise.It is therefore necessary to move beyond the clustering paradigm towards developing approaches which are capable of discovering local patterns in gene expression data.A biclusters is a submatrix of the gene expression data matrix.The rows and columns in the submatrix need not be contiguous as in the gene expression data matrix.Biclusters are not disjoint.Computation of biclusters is costly because one will have to consider all the combinations of columans and rows in order to find out all the biclusters.The search space for the biclustering problem is 2 m+n where m and n are the number of genes and conditions respectively.Usually m+n is more than 3000.The biclustering problem is NP-hard.Biclustering is a powerful analytical tool for the biologist.The research reported in this thesis addresses the problem of biclustering.Ten algorithms are developed for the identification of coherent biclusters from gene expression data.All these algorithms are making use of a measure called mean squared residue to search for biclusters.The objective here is to identify the biclusters of maximum size with the mean squared residue lower than a given threshold. All these algorithms begin the search from tightly coregulated submatrices called the seeds.These seeds are generated by K-Means clustering algorithm.The algorithms developed can be classified as constraint based,greedy and metaheuristic.Constarint based algorithms uses one or more of the various constaints namely the MSR threshold and the MSR difference threshold.The greedy approach makes a locally optimal choice at each stage with the objective of finding the global optimum.In metaheuristic approaches particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) and variants of Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure(GRASP) are used for the identification of biclusters.These algorithms are implemented on the Yeast and Lymphoma datasets.Biologically relevant and statistically significant biclusters are identified by all these algorithms which are validated by Gene Ontology database.All these algorithms are compared with some other biclustering algorithms.Algorithms developed in this work overcome some of the problems associated with the already existing algorithms.With the help of some of the algorithms which are developed in this work biclusters with very high row variance,which is higher than the row variance of any other algorithm using mean squared residue, are identified from both Yeast and Lymphoma data sets.Such biclusters which make significant change in the expression level are highly relevant biologically.

Modelling and Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Multiple Causes

This thesis Entitled “modelling and analysis of recurrent event data with multiple causes.Survival data is a term used for describing data that measures the time to occurrence of an event.In survival studies, the time to occurrence of an event is generally referred to as lifetime.Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies when individuals are followed to observe the repeated occurrences of certain events. In many practical situations, individuals under study are exposed to the failure due to more than one causes and the eventual failure can be attributed to exactly one of these causes.The proposed model was useful in real life situations to study the effect of covariates on recurrences of certain events due to different causes.In Chapter 3, an additive hazards model for gap time distributions of recurrent event data with multiple causes was introduced. The parameter estimation and asymptotic properties were discussed .In Chapter 4, a shared frailty model for the analysis of bivariate competing risks data was presented and the estimation procedures for shared gamma frailty model, without covariates and with covariates, using EM algorithm were discussed. In Chapter 6, two nonparametric estimators for bivariate survivor function of paired recurrent event data were developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimators were studied. The proposed estimators were applied to a real life data set. Simulation studies were carried out to find the efficiency of the proposed estimators.

Studies on the universal parameters and onset of chaos in dissipative systems

It has become clear over the last few years that many deterministic dynamical systems described by simple but nonlinear equations with only a few variables can behave in an irregular or random fashion. This phenomenon, commonly called deterministic chaos, is essentially due to the fact that we cannot deal with infinitely precise numbers. In these systems trajectories emerging from nearby initial conditions diverge exponentially as time evolves)and therefore)any small error in the initial measurement spreads with time considerably, leading to unpredictable and chaotic behaviour The thesis work is mainly centered on the asymptotic behaviour of nonlinear and nonintegrable dissipative dynamical systems. It is found that completely deterministic nonlinear differential equations describing such systems can exhibit random or chaotic behaviour. Theoretical studies on this chaotic behaviour can enhance our understanding of various phenomena such as turbulence, nonlinear electronic circuits, erratic behaviour of heart and brain, fundamental molecular reactions involving DNA, meteorological phenomena, fluctuations in the cost of materials and so on. Chaos is studied mainly under two different approaches - the nature of the onset of chaos and the statistical description of the chaotic state.

Content-Based Image Retrieval of Axial Brain Slices Using a Novel LBP with a Ternary Encoding

Retrieval of similar anatomical structures of brain MR images across patients would help the expert in diagnosis of diseases. In this paper, modified local binary pattern with ternary encoding called modified local ternary pattern (MOD-LTP) is introduced, which is more discriminant and less sensitive to noise in near-uniform regions, to locate slices belonging to the same level from the brain MR image database. The ternary encoding depends on a threshold, which is a user-specified one or calculated locally, based on the variance of the pixel intensities in each window. The variancebased local threshold makes the MOD-LTP more robust to noise and global illumination changes. The retrieval performance is shown to improve by taking region-based moment features of MODLTP and iteratively reweighting the moment features of MOD-LTP based on the user’s feedback. The average rank obtained using iterated and weighted moment features of MOD-LTP with a local variance-based threshold, is one to two times better than rotational invariant LBP (Unay, D., Ekin, A. and Jasinschi, R.S. (2010) Local structure-based region-of-interest retrieval in brain MR images. IEEE Trans. Inf. Technol. Biomed., 14, 897–903.) in retrieving the first 10 relevant images

On Szegö’s Type Theorems

This study is to look the effect of change in the ordering of the Fourier system on Szegö’s classical observations of asymptotic distribution of eigenvalues of finite Toeplitz forms.This is done by checking proofs and Szegö’s properties in the new set up.The Fourier system is unconditional [19], any arbitrary ordering of the Fourier system forms a basis for the Hilbert space L2 [-Π, Π].Here study about the classical Szegö’s theorem.Szegö’s type theorem for operators in L2(R+) and check its validity for certain multiplication operators.Since the trigonometric basis is not available in L2(R+) or in L2(R) .This study discussed about the classes of orderings of Haar System in L2 (R+) and in L2(R) in which Szegö’s Type TheoreT Am is valid for certain multiplication operators.It is divided into two sections. In the first section there is an ordering to Haar system in L2(R+) and prove that with respect to this ordering, Szegö’s Type theorem holds for general class of multiplication operators Tƒ with multiplier ƒ ε L2(R+), subject to some conditions on ƒ.Finally in second section more general classes of ordering of Haar system in L2(R+) and in L2(R) are identified in such a way that for certain classes of multiplication operators the asymptotic distribution of eigenvalues exists.

Estimation for the semipareto processes

This paper proposes different estimators for the parameters of SemiPareto and Pareto autoregressive minification processes The asymptotic properties of the estimators are established by showing that the SemiPareto process is α-mixing. Asymptotic variances of different moment and maximum likelihood estimators are compared.

Regression models for bivariate survival data

Multivariate lifetime data arise in various forms including recurrent event data when individuals are followed to observe the sequence of occurrences of a certain type of event; correlated lifetime when an individual is followed for the occurrence of two or more types of events, or when distinct individuals have dependent event times. In most studies there are covariates such as treatments, group indicators, individual characteristics, or environmental conditions, whose relationship to lifetime is of interest. This leads to a consideration of regression models.The well known Cox proportional hazards model and its variations, using the marginal hazard functions employed for the analysis of multivariate survival data in literature are not sufficient to explain the complete dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector. Motivated by this, in Chapter 2, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model using vector hazard function of Johnson and Kotz (1975), in which the covariates under study have different effect on two components of the vector hazard function. The proposed model is useful in real life situations to study the dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector . The well known partial likelihood approach is used for the estimation of parameter vectors. We then introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for gap times of recurrent events in Chapter 3. The model incorporates both marginal and joint dependence of the distribution of gap times on the covariate vector . In many fields of application, mean residual life function is considered superior concept than the hazard function. Motivated by this, in Chapter 4, we considered a new semi-parametric model, bivariate proportional mean residual life time model, to assess the relationship between mean residual life and covariates for gap time of recurrent events. The counting process approach is used for the inference procedures of the gap time of recurrent events. In many survival studies, the distribution of lifetime may depend on the distribution of censoring time. In Chapter 5, we introduced a proportional hazards model for duration times and developed inference procedures under dependent (informative) censoring. In Chapter 6, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for competing risks data under right censoring. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of the parameters of different models developed in previous chapters, were studied. The proposed models were applied to various real life situations.

Drastic variation in the surface boundary layer parameters over Cochin during the annular solar eclipse: Analysis using sonic anemometer data

Atmospheric surface boundary layer parameters vary anomalously in response to the occurrence of annular solar eclipse on 15th January 2010 over Cochin. It was the longest annular solar eclipse occurred over South India with high intensity. As it occurred during the noon hours, it is considered to be much more significant because of its effects in all the regions of atmosphere including ionosphere. Since the insolation is the main driving factor responsible for the anomalous changes occurred in the surface layer due to annular solar eclipse, occurred on 15th January 2010, that played very important role in understanding dynamics of the atmosphere during the eclipse period because of its coincidence with the noon time. The Sonic anemometer is able to give data of zonal, meridional and vertical wind as well as the air temperature at a temporal resolution of 1 s. Different surface boundary layer parameters and turbulent fluxes were computed by the application of eddy correlation technique using the high resolution station data. The surface boundary layer parameters that are computed using the sonic anemometer data during the period are momentum flux, sensible heat flux, turbulent kinetic energy, frictional velocity (u*), variance of temperature, variances of u, v and w wind. In order to compare the results, a control run has been done using the data of previous day as well as next day. It is noted that over the specified time period of annular solar eclipse, all the above stated surface boundary layer parameters vary anomalously when compared with the control run. From the observations we could note that momentum flux was 0.1 Nm 2 instead of the mean value 0.2 Nm-2 when there was eclipse. Sensible heat flux anomalously decreases to 50 Nm 2 instead of the mean value 200 Nm 2 at the time of solar eclipse. The turbulent kinetic energy decreases to 0.2 m2s 2 from the mean value 1 m2s 2. The frictional velocity value decreases to 0.05 ms 1 instead of the mean value 0.2 ms 1. The present study aimed at understanding the dynamics of surface layer in response to the annular solar eclipse over a tropical coastal station, occurred during the noon hours. Key words: annular solar eclipse, surface boundary layer, sonic anemometer