Regional climate model applications on sub-regional scales over the Indian monsoon region: The role of domain size on downscaling uncertainty

Regional climate models are becoming increasingly popular to provide high resolution climate change information for impacts assessments to inform adaptation options. Many countries and provinces requiring these assessments are as small as 200,000 km2 in size, significantly smaller than an ideal domain needed for successful applications of one-way nested regional climate models. Therefore assessments on sub-regional scales (e.g., river basins) are generally carried out using climate change simulations performed for relatively larger regions. Here we show that the seasonal mean hydrological cycle and the day-to-day precipitation variations of a sub-region within the model domain are sensitive to the domain size, even though the large scale circulation features over the region are largely insensitive. On seasonal timescales, the relatively smaller domains intensify the hydrological cycle by increasing the net transport of moisture into the study region and thereby enhancing the precipitation and local recycling of moisture. On daily timescales, the simulations run over smaller domains produce higher number of moderate precipitation days in the sub-region relative to the corresponding larger domain simulations. An assessment of daily variations of water vapor and the vertical velocity within the sub-region indicates that the smaller domains may favor more frequent moderate uplifting and subsequent precipitation in the region. The results remained largely insensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, indicating the robustness of the domain size influence on the regional model solutions. These domain size dependent precipitation characteristics have the potential to add one more level of uncertainty to the downscaled projections.

Assessment of trophic change and its probable impact on tropical estuarine environment (the Kodungallur-Azhikode estuary, India)

The cumulative effects of global change, including climate change, increased population density and domestic waste disposal, effluent discharges from industrial processes, agriculture and aquaculture will likely continue and increases the process of eutrophication in estuarine environments. Eutrophication is one of the leading causes of degraded water quality, water column hypoxia/anoxia, harmful algal bloom (HAB) and loss of habitat and species diversity in the estuarine environment. The present study attempts to characterize the trophic condition of coastal estuary using a simple tool; trophic index (TRIX) based on a linear combination of the log of four state variables with supplementary index Efficiency Coefficient (Eff. Coeff.) as a discriminating tool. Numerically, the index TRIX is scaled from 0 to10, covering a wide range of trophic conditions from oligotrophic to eutrophic. Study area Kodungallur-Azhikode Estuary (KAE) was comparatively shallow in nature with average depth of 3.6±0.2 m. Dissolve oxygen regime in the water column was ranged from 4.7±1.3 mgL−1 in Station I to 5.9±1.4 mgL−1 in Station IV. The average nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) of KAE water was 470 mg m−3; values ranged from Av. 364.4 mg m−3 at Station II to Av. 626.6 mg m−3at Station VII. The mean ammonium-nitrogen (NH4 +-N) varied from 54.1 mg m−3 at Station VII to 101 mg m−3 at Station III. The average Chl-a for the seven stations of KAE was 6.42±3.91 mg m−3. Comparisons over different spatial and temporal scales in the KAE and study observed that, estuary experiencing high productivity by the influence of high degree of eutrophication; an annual average of 6.91 TRIX was noticed in the KAE and seasonal highest was observed during pre monsoon period (7.15) and lowest during post monsoon period (6.51). In the spatial scale station V showed high value 7.37 and comparatively low values in the station VI (6.93) and station VII (6.96) and which indicates eutrophication was predominant in land cover area with comparatively high water residence time. Eff. Coeff. values in the KAE ranges from −2.74 during monsoon period to the lowest of −1.98 in pre monsoon period. Present study revealed that trophic state of the estuary under severe stress and the restriction of autochthonous and allochthonous nutrient loading should be keystone in mitigate from eutrophication process