Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

An Error-Localization, Validation and Optimization Tool for Embedded Code Augmentation: an Architecture Oriented Approach

Embedded systems are usually designed for a single or a specified set of tasks. This specificity means the system design as well as its hardware/software development can be highly optimized. Embedded software must meet the requirements such as high reliability operation on resource-constrained platforms, real time constraints and rapid development. This necessitates the adoption of static machine codes analysis tools running on a host machine for the validation and optimization of embedded system codes, which can help meet all of these goals. This could significantly augment the software quality and is still a challenging field.Embedded systems are usually designed for a single or a specified set of tasks. This specificity means the system design as well as its hardware/software development can be highly optimized. Embedded software must meet the requirements such as high reliability operation on resource-constrained platforms, real time constraints and rapid development. This necessitates the adoption of static machine codes analysis tools running on a host machine for the validation and optimization of embedded system codes, which can help meet all of these goals. This could significantly augment the software quality and is still a challenging field.Embedded systems are usually designed for a single or a specified set of tasks. This specificity means the system design as well as its hardware/software development can be highly optimized. Embedded software must meet the requirements such as high reliability operation on resource-constrained platforms, real time constraints and rapid development. This necessitates the adoption of static machine codes analysis tools running on a host machine for the validation and optimization of embedded system codes, which can help meet all of these goals. This could significantly augment the software quality and is still a challenging field.Embedded systems are usually designed for a single or a specified set of tasks. This specificity means the system design as well as its hardware/software development can be highly optimized. Embedded software must meet the requirements such as high reliability operation on resource-constrained platforms, real time constraints and rapid development. This necessitates the adoption of static machine codes analysis tools running on a host machine for the validation and optimization of embedded system codes, which can help meet all of these goals. This could significantly augment the software quality and is still a challenging field.This dissertation contributes to an architecture oriented code validation, error localization and optimization technique assisting the embedded system designer in software debugging, to make it more effective at early detection of software bugs that are otherwise hard to detect, using the static analysis of machine codes. The focus of this work is to develop methods that automatically localize faults as well as optimize the code and thus improve the debugging process as well as quality of the code.Validation is done with the help of rules of inferences formulated for the target processor. The rules govern the occurrence of illegitimate/out of place instructions and code sequences for executing the computational and integrated peripheral functions. The stipulated rules are encoded in propositional logic formulae and their compliance is tested individually in all possible execution paths of the application programs. An incorrect sequence of machine code pattern is identified using slicing techniques on the control flow graph generated from the machine code.An algorithm to assist the compiler to eliminate the redundant bank switching codes and decide on optimum data allocation to banked memory resulting in minimum number of bank switching codes in embedded system software is proposed. A relation matrix and a state transition diagram formed for the active memory bank state transition corresponding to each bank selection instruction is used for the detection of redundant codes. Instances of code redundancy based on the stipulated rules for the target processor are identified.This validation and optimization tool can be integrated to the system development environment. It is a novel approach independent of compiler/assembler, applicable to a wide range of processors once appropriate rules are formulated. Program states are identified mainly with machine code pattern, which drastically reduces the state space creation contributing to an improved state-of-the-art model checking. Though the technique described is general, the implementation is architecture oriented, and hence the feasibility study is conducted on PIC16F87X microcontrollers. The proposed tool will be very useful in steering novices towards correct use of difficult microcontroller features in developing embedded systems.

An Extended Pearson System Useful In Reliability Analysis

In the present environment, industry should provide the products of high quality. Quality of products is judged by the period of time they can successfully perform their intended functions without failure. The cause of the failures can be ascertained through life testing experiments and the times to failure due to different cause are likely to follow different distributions. Knowledge of this distribution is essential to eliminate causes of failures and thereby to improve the quality and the reliability of products. The main accomplishment expected to the study is to develop statistical tools that could facilitate solution to lifetime data arising in such and similar contexts

Defect analysis of semiconductor thin films for photovoltaic applications using photo-luminescence and photo-conductivity

The present thesis can be divided into three areas:1) the fabrication of a low temperature photo-luminescence and photoconductivity measuring unit 2) photo-luminescence in the chalcopyrite CulnSez and CulnS2 system for defect and composition analysis and 3) photo-luminescence and photo-conductivity of In:JS3. This thesis shows that photo-luminescence is one of most essential semiconductor characterization tool for a scientific group working on photovoltaics. Tools which can be robust, non-destructive, requiring minimal sample preparation for analysis and most informative of the device applications are sought after by industries and this thesis is towards establishing photo-luminescence as "THE" tool for semiconductor characterization. The possible application of photo-luminescence as a tool for compositional and quality analysis of semiconductor thin films has been worked upon by this thesis. Photo-conductivity complement photo-luminescence and together they provide all the information required for the fabrication of an opto-electronic device.

Analysis and Optimization of Machining Process Using Evolutionary Algorithms

To ensure quality of machined products at minimum machining costs and maximum machining effectiveness, it is very important to select optimum parameters when metal cutting machine tools are employed. Traditionally, the experience of the operator plays a major role in the selection of optimum metal cutting conditions. However, attaining optimum values each time by even a skilled operator is difficult. The non-linear nature of the machining process has compelled engineers to search for more effective methods to attain optimization. The design objective preceding most engineering design activities is simply to minimize the cost of production or to maximize the production efficiency. The main aim of research work reported here is to build robust optimization algorithms by exploiting ideas that nature has to offer from its backyard and using it to solve real world optimization problems in manufacturing processes.In this thesis, after conducting an exhaustive literature review, several optimization techniques used in various manufacturing processes have been identified. The selection of optimal cutting parameters, like depth of cut, feed and speed is a very important issue for every machining process. Experiments have been designed using Taguchi technique and dry turning of SS420 has been performed on Kirlosker turn master 35 lathe. Analysis using S/N and ANOVA were performed to find the optimum level and percentage of contribution of each parameter. By using S/N analysis the optimum machining parameters from the experimentation is obtained.Optimization algorithms begin with one or more design solutions supplied by the user and then iteratively check new design solutions, relative search spaces in order to achieve the true optimum solution. A mathematical model has been developed using response surface analysis for surface roughness and the model was validated using published results from literature.Methodologies in optimization such as Simulated annealing (SA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Conventional Genetic Algorithm (CGA) and Improved Genetic Algorithm (IGA) are applied to optimize machining parameters while dry turning of SS420 material. All the above algorithms were tested for their efficiency, robustness and accuracy and observe how they often outperform conventional optimization method applied to difficult real world problems. The SA, PSO, CGA and IGA codes were developed using MATLAB. For each evolutionary algorithmic method, optimum cutting conditions are provided to achieve better surface finish.The computational results using SA clearly demonstrated that the proposed solution procedure is quite capable in solving such complicated problems effectively and efficiently. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a relatively recent heuristic search method whose mechanics are inspired by the swarming or collaborative behavior of biological populations. From the results it has been observed that PSO provides better results and also more computationally efficient.Based on the results obtained using CGA and IGA for the optimization of machining process, the proposed IGA provides better results than the conventional GA. The improved genetic algorithm incorporating a stochastic crossover technique and an artificial initial population scheme is developed to provide a faster search mechanism. Finally, a comparison among these algorithms were made for the specific example of dry turning of SS 420 material and arriving at optimum machining parameters of feed, cutting speed, depth of cut and tool nose radius for minimum surface roughness as the criterion. To summarize, the research work fills in conspicuous gaps between research prototypes and industry requirements, by simulating evolutionary procedures seen in nature that optimize its own systems.

Some concepts and models usefulninthe analysis of discrete life time data

This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

Predictability Of Share Prices In India: A Study Of The Applicability Of Technical Analysis

In spite of the far longed practices of technical analysis by many participants in Indian stock market, none have arrived at the exact position of technical analysis as a tool for foretelling share prices. There is no evidence supporting that one has established its definite role in predicting the behaviour of share price and also to see the extent of validity (how far reliable) of technical tools in Indian stock market. The problem is the vacuum in the arena of securities market analysis where an unrecognised tool is practised, i.e., whether to hold on to technical analysis or to drop it. Again, as already stated in this chapter, its validity need not continue forever. It may become futile as happened in developed markets. Continuous practice of a tool, which is valid only during discontinuous times is also an error. The efficacy of different market phenomena in terms of their ability to foretell the extent and direction of the price movements and reliability thereof remain as not yet proved in. This requires further study in this area so that this controversy may be settled. A solution to the problem requires enquiring and establishing the applicability of technical analysis, if any, there is in the Indian stock market. The study has the following two broad objectives for the purpose of confirming the applicability, if any, of technical analysis in the Indian stock market. The first objective is to ascertain the current validity of ‘traditional holding with respect to patterns’ and the second objective is to ascertain the ‘consistent superiority’, if any, of technical indicators over non-signal strategies in return generation. The study analyses the five patterns, which are widely known and commonly found in publications. They are: (1) Symmetrical Triangles, (2) Rising Wedges, (3) Falling Wedges, (4) Head and Shoulders Top and (5) Head and Shoulders Bottom.

Gap Analysis For Implementing Tqm In Seafood Exporting Firms

Gap analysis is a very useful tool for firms contemplating adoption of a new system. This paper envisages the use of the gap analysis tool as a precursor for Indian seafood exporting firms to adopt total quality management. Total quality management (TQM) is a management philosophy which strives to put quality at the forefront of all its decision-making, thereby satisfying customers. We therefore recommend that firms adopt the TQM system for better alignment of management goals. The gap analysis tool serves as a roadmap for TQM implementation, by showing the management where they actually are and where they want to be. The main gaps were found to be in the areas of usage of SPC tools (66.7%), benchmarking (65.6%), top management commitment (56.25%) and customer focus (48.1%).