ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.

Fabrication And Parametric Measurements Of N2 Laser Pumped Dye Laser And Its Application To Energy Transfer Studies In Mixed Dyes

Eventhough a large number of schemes have been proposed and develoned for N9 laser ouined dye lasers the relatively low efficiency compelled the scientists to device new methods to improve the system efficiencs. Energy transfer mechanism has been shown to he a convenien tool for the enhancement of efficiency of dye lasers. Th p resent work covers a detailed study of the performance characteristics of a N2 laser pumped dye laser in the con— ventional mode and also, when pumped by the energy transfer mechanism. For .th.e present investigations a dye laser pumped by a'N2 laser (A4200 kw peak power) was fabricated. The grating at grazing incidence was used as the beam expanding device; A t its best performance the system was giving an output peak power of l5 kW for a 5 X lC"3H/l Rh—€ solution in methanol. T he conversion efficiency was 7.5; The output beam was having 3 divergence of 2 mrad and bandwidth o.9 A. Suitable modifications were suggested for obtaining better conversion efficiency and bandwidth.

Modeling Of Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders In Chemical Process Industry In India

In this modern complex world, stress at work is found to be increasingly a common feature in day to day life. For the same reason, job stress is one of the active areas in occupational health and safety research for over last four decades and is continuing to attract researchers in academia and industry. Job stress in process industries is of concern due to its influence on process safety, and worker‘s safety and health. Safety in process (chemical and nuclear material) industry is of paramount importance, especially in a thickly populated country like India. Stress at job is the main vector in inducing work related musculoskeletal disorders which in turn can affect the worker health and safety in process industries. In view of the above, the process industries should try to minimize the job stress in workers to ensure a safe and healthy working climate for the industry and the worker. This research is mainly aimed at assessing the influence of job stress in inducing work related musculoskeletal disorders in chemical process industries in India

Development and parametric studies of pulsed nitrogen and d-switched nd:glass lasers and some of their applications

Laser engineering is an area in which developments in the existing design concepts and technology appear at an alarming rate. Now—a-days, emphasis has shifted from innovation to cost reduction and system improvement. To a major extent, these studies are aimed at attaining larger power densities, higher system efficiency and identification of new lasing media and new lasing wavelengths. Todate researchers have put to use all the ditferent Forms of matter as lasing material. Laser action was observed For the first time in a gaseous system - the He-Ne system. This was Followed by a variety of solidstate and gas laser systems. Uarious organic dyes dissolved in suitable solvents were found to lase when pumped optically. Broad band emission characteristics of these dye molecules made wavelength tuning possible using optical devices. Laser action was also observed in certain p-n junctions of semiconductor materials and some of these systems are also tunable. The recent addition to this list was the observation of laser action from certain laser produced plasmas. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the design and Fabrication techniques of pulsed Nitrogen lasers and high power Nd: Glass laserso Attempt was also made to put the systems developed into certain related experiments

Analyzing and Modeling a Multiparty Outsourcing Environment.

This paper discusses the complexities involved in managing and monitoring the delivery of IT services in a multiparty outsourcing environment. The complexities identified are grouped into four categories and are tabulated. A discussion on an attempt to model a multiparty outsourcing scenario using UML is also presented and explained using an illustration. Such a model when supplemented by a performance evaluation tool can enable an organization to manage the provision of IT services in a multiparty outsourcing environment more effectively

Modeling of ALFA Programs Using PVS Theorem Prover

In Safety critical software failure can have a high price. Such software should be free of errors before it is put into operation. Application of formal methods in the Software Development Life Cycle helps to ensure that the software for safety critical missions are ultra reliable. PVS theorem prover, a formal method tool, can be used for the formal verification of software in ADA Language for Flight Software Application (ALFA.). This paper describes the modeling of ALFA programs for PVS theorem prover. An ALFA2PVS translator is developed which automatically converts the software in ALFA to PVS specification. By this approach the software can be verified formally with respect to underflow/overflow errors and divide by zero conditions without the actual execution of the code.

A facile and single pot strategy for the synthesis of novel naphthyridine derivatives under microwave irradiation conditions using ZnCl2 as catalyst, evaluation of AChE inhibitory activity, and molecular modeling studies

A series of novel naphthyridine derivatives 3 and 4 was prepared from substituted pyridine 2 and ketones using ZnCl2 as catalyst under microwave irradiation conditions. All the compounds were evaluated for AChE inhibitory activity and promising compounds 3d, 3e, 4b, and 4g was identified. Representative compounds 3d and 3e were found to show insignificant THLE-2 liver cell viability/toxicity. The binding mode between X-ray crystal structure of human AChE and compounds was studied using molecular docking method and fitness scores were found to be in good correlation with the activity data.

Modeling of ALFA Programs Using PVS Theorem Prover

In Safety critical software failure can have a high price. Such software should be free of errors before it is put into operation. Application of formal methods in the Software Development Life Cycle helps to ensure that the software for safety critical missions are ultra reliable. PVS theorem prover, a formal method tool, can be used for the formal verification of software in ADA Language for Flight Software Application (ALFA.). This paper describes the modeling of ALFA programs for PVS theorem prover. An ALFA2PVS translator is developed which automatically converts the software in ALFA to PVS specification. By this approach the software can be verified formally with respect to underflow/overflow errors and divide by zero conditions without the actual execution of the code

Artificial neural network modeling for surface roughness prediction in cylindrical grinding of Al‐SiCp metal matrix composites and ANOVA analysis

Metal matrix composites (MMC) having aluminium (Al) in the matrix phase and silicon carbide particles (SiCp) in reinforcement phase, ie Al‐SiCp type MMC, have gained popularity in the re‐cent past. In this competitive age, manufacturing industries strive to produce superior quality products at reasonable price. This is possible by achieving higher productivity while performing machining at optimum combinations of process variables. The low weight and high strength MMC are found suitable for variety of components

The role of lower partial moments in stochastic modeling

Lower partial moments plays an important role in the analysis of risks and in income/poverty studies. In the present paper, we further investigate its importance in stochastic modeling and prove some characterization theorems arising out of it. We also identify its relationships with other important applied models such as weighted and equilibrium models. Finally, some applications of lower partial moments in poverty studies are also examined

A semi-automatic method for segmentation and 3D modeling of glioma tumors from brain MRI

This work presents an efficient method for volume rendering of glioma tumors from segmented 2D MRI Datasets with user interactive control, by replacing manual segmentation required in the state of art methods. The most common primary brain tumors are gliomas, evolving from the cerebral supportive cells. For clinical follow-up, the evaluation of the pre- operative tumor volume is essential. Tumor portions were automatically segmented from 2D MR images using morphological filtering techniques. These seg- mented tumor slices were propagated and modeled with the software package. The 3D modeled tumor consists of gray level values of the original image with exact tumor boundary. Axial slices of FLAIR and T2 weighted images were used for extracting tumors. Volumetric assessment of tumor volume with manual segmentation of its outlines is a time-consuming proc- ess and is prone to error. These defects are overcome in this method. Authors verified the performance of our method on several sets of MRI scans. The 3D modeling was also done using segmented 2D slices with the help of a medical software package called 3D DOCTOR for verification purposes. The results were validated with the ground truth models by the Radi- ologist.

A New Fast Fractal Modeling Approach for the Detection of Microcalcifications in Mammograms

In this paper, a novel fast method for modeling mammograms by deterministic fractal coding approach to detect the presence of microcalcifications, which are early signs of breast cancer, is presented. The modeled mammogram obtained using fractal encoding method is visually similar to the original image containing microcalcifications, and therefore, when it is taken out from the original mammogram, the presence of microcalcifications can be enhanced. The limitation of fractal image modeling is the tremendous time required for encoding. In the present work, instead of searching for a matching domain in the entire domain pool of the image, three methods based on mean and variance, dynamic range of the image blocks, and mass center features are used. This reduced the encoding time by a factor of 3, 89, and 13, respectively, in the three methods with respect to the conventional fractal image coding method with quad tree partitioning. The mammograms obtained from The Mammographic Image Analysis Society database (ground truth available) gave a total detection score of 87.6%, 87.6%, 90.5%, and 87.6%, for the conventional and the proposed three methods, respectively.

Some Aspects of Domain Specific Conceptual Modeling for Simulation of Logistic Terminal Operations

When simulation modeling is used for performance improvement studies of complex systems such as transport terminals, domain specific conceptual modeling constructs could be used by modelers to create structured models. A two stage procedure which includes identification of the problem characteristics/cluster - ‘knowledge acquisition’ and identification of standard models for the problem cluster – ‘model abstraction’ was found to be effective in creating structured models when applied to certain logistic terminal systems. In this paper we discuss some methods and examples related the knowledge acquisition and model abstraction stages for the development of three different types of model categories of terminal systems

Study on period search methods of variable stars: Application to ASAS and CRTS databases

Study on variable stars is an important topic of modern astrophysics. After the invention of powerful telescopes and high resolving powered CCD’s, the variable star data is accumulating in the order of peta-bytes. The huge amount of data need lot of automated methods as well as human experts. This thesis is devoted to the data analysis on variable star’s astronomical time series data and hence belong to the inter-disciplinary topic, Astrostatistics. For an observer on earth, stars that have a change in apparent brightness over time are called variable stars. The variation in brightness may be regular (periodic), quasi periodic (semi-periodic) or irregular manner (aperiodic) and are caused by various reasons. In some cases, the variation is due to some internal thermo-nuclear processes, which are generally known as intrinsic vari- ables and in some other cases, it is due to some external processes, like eclipse or rotation, which are known as extrinsic variables. Intrinsic variables can be further grouped into pulsating variables, eruptive variables and flare stars. Extrinsic variables are grouped into eclipsing binary stars and chromospheri- cal stars. Pulsating variables can again classified into Cepheid, RR Lyrae, RV Tauri, Delta Scuti, Mira etc. The eruptive or cataclysmic variables are novae, supernovae, etc., which rarely occurs and are not periodic phenomena. Most of the other variations are periodic in nature. Variable stars can be observed through many ways such as photometry, spectrophotometry and spectroscopy. The sequence of photometric observa- xiv tions on variable stars produces time series data, which contains time, magni- tude and error. The plot between variable star’s apparent magnitude and time are known as light curve. If the time series data is folded on a period, the plot between apparent magnitude and phase is known as phased light curve. The unique shape of phased light curve is a characteristic of each type of variable star. One way to identify the type of variable star and to classify them is by visually looking at the phased light curve by an expert. For last several years, automated algorithms are used to classify a group of variable stars, with the help of computers. Research on variable stars can be divided into different stages like observa- tion, data reduction, data analysis, modeling and classification. The modeling on variable stars helps to determine the short-term and long-term behaviour and to construct theoretical models (for eg:- Wilson-Devinney model for eclips- ing binaries) and to derive stellar properties like mass, radius, luminosity, tem- perature, internal and external structure, chemical composition and evolution. The classification requires the determination of the basic parameters like pe- riod, amplitude and phase and also some other derived parameters. Out of these, period is the most important parameter since the wrong periods can lead to sparse light curves and misleading information. Time series analysis is a method of applying mathematical and statistical tests to data, to quantify the variation, understand the nature of time-varying phenomena, to gain physical understanding of the system and to predict future behavior of the system. Astronomical time series usually suffer from unevenly spaced time instants, varying error conditions and possibility of big gaps. This is due to daily varying daylight and the weather conditions for ground based observations and observations from space may suffer from the impact of cosmic ray particles. Many large scale astronomical surveys such as MACHO, OGLE, EROS, xv ROTSE, PLANET, Hipparcos, MISAO, NSVS, ASAS, Pan-STARRS, Ke- pler,ESA, Gaia, LSST, CRTS provide variable star’s time series data, even though their primary intention is not variable star observation. Center for Astrostatistics, Pennsylvania State University is established to help the astro- nomical community with the aid of statistical tools for harvesting and analysing archival data. Most of these surveys releases the data to the public for further analysis. There exist many period search algorithms through astronomical time se- ries analysis, which can be classified into parametric (assume some underlying distribution for data) and non-parametric (do not assume any statistical model like Gaussian etc.,) methods. Many of the parametric methods are based on variations of discrete Fourier transforms like Generalised Lomb-Scargle peri- odogram (GLSP) by Zechmeister(2009), Significant Spectrum (SigSpec) by Reegen(2007) etc. Non-parametric methods include Phase Dispersion Minimi- sation (PDM) by Stellingwerf(1978) and Cubic spline method by Akerlof(1994) etc. Even though most of the methods can be brought under automation, any of the method stated above could not fully recover the true periods. The wrong detection of period can be due to several reasons such as power leakage to other frequencies which is due to finite total interval, finite sampling interval and finite amount of data. Another problem is aliasing, which is due to the influence of regular sampling. Also spurious periods appear due to long gaps and power flow to harmonic frequencies is an inherent problem of Fourier methods. Hence obtaining the exact period of variable star from it’s time series data is still a difficult problem, in case of huge databases, when subjected to automation. As Matthew Templeton, AAVSO, states “Variable star data analysis is not always straightforward; large-scale, automated analysis design is non-trivial”. Derekas et al. 2007, Deb et.al. 2010 states “The processing of xvi huge amount of data in these databases is quite challenging, even when looking at seemingly small issues such as period determination and classification”. It will be beneficial for the variable star astronomical community, if basic parameters, such as period, amplitude and phase are obtained more accurately, when huge time series databases are subjected to automation. In the present thesis work, the theories of four popular period search methods are studied, the strength and weakness of these methods are evaluated by applying it on two survey databases and finally a modified form of cubic spline method is intro- duced to confirm the exact period of variable star. For the classification of new variable stars discovered and entering them in the “General Catalogue of Vari- able Stars” or other databases like “Variable Star Index“, the characteristics of the variability has to be quantified in term of variable star parameters.