A new avalanche model for solar flares

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Les municipalités dans le secteur énergétique québécois : le cas du chauffage urbain

In a global context of climate change and energy transition, Quebec seems to be privileged, producing a large amount of cheap hydroelectricity. But aside from the established popular belief that Quebec’s energy is abundant, clean and inexpensive, Quebec’s energy future is still precarious. Within a few decades, Quebec will have to import a significant amount of electricity at a higher price than it actually produces it; the cheap exploitable hydro resources will not only get scarcer if not nonexistent; and the national hydroelectric ``cultural`` heritage even seems to quell the development of alternative energies, letting few space for local innovation coming from municipalities. While in many countries, municipalities are recognised as key figures in the energy sector, here, in Quebec, their role in the national energy system seems marginal. As main actors responsible for territorial planning, it seams that municipalities could play a more important role on Quebec’s energy scene. So they can densify their territory, develop active and collective solutions to transportation issues, they can adopt exemplary energetic habits, they can produce their own energy with wind, solar or even district heating systems. District heating and heat networks being less well know and documented in Quebec, the present study aims at explaining their low penetration level in the Quebec energy landscape. The study also attempts to understand what are the main hurdles to the implementation of district heating in Quebec’s particular energetic context. Finally, the research tries to open a discussion on the motives that could incite municipalities to adopt district heating as an energy alternative. Based on some twenty interviews with key actors of the energy and municipal sectors, the findings give some indications that the low penetration level of district heating in the Quebec municipalities could explain itself in part by : the low priced hydroelectricity, the presence of a comfortable, sufficient and pervasive Hydro-Quebec(er) culture, and also by organizational dynamic and a certain political inertia which limit the appropriation of an energy competence by local governments. In turn, the study shows that district heating solutions are more likely to develop in contexts in which : there are minimum urban or energy density levels; the development of district heating coincides with the local or regional economic structure; and where exist a mobilising local leader or local visions from a community in favor of the implementation of alternative energy systems.

A Coupled 2 × 2D Babcock–Leighton Solar Dynamo Model. I. Surface Magnetic Flux Evolution

The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model's key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returns Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics.