Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency in CAPM with Possibly Non-Gaussian Errors : An Exact Simulation-Based Approach

In this paper we propose exact likelihood-based mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio in the context of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), allowing for a wide class of error distributions which include normality as a special case. These tests are developed in the frame-work of multivariate linear regressions (MLR). It is well known however that despite their simple statistical structure, standard asymptotically justified MLR-based tests are unreliable. In financial econometrics, exact tests have been proposed for a few specific hypotheses [Jobson and Korkie (Journal of Financial Economics, 1982), MacKinlay (Journal of Financial Economics, 1987), Gib-bons, Ross and Shanken (Econometrica, 1989), Zhou (Journal of Finance 1993)], most of which depend on normality. For the gaussian model, our tests correspond to Gibbons, Ross and Shanken’s mean-variance efficiency tests. In non-gaussian contexts, we reconsider mean-variance efficiency tests allowing for multivariate Student-t and gaussian mixture errors. Our framework allows to cast more evidence on whether the normality assumption is too restrictive when testing the CAPM. We also propose exact multivariate diagnostic checks (including tests for multivariate GARCH and mul-tivariate generalization of the well known variance ratio tests) and goodness of fit tests as well as a set estimate for the intervening nuisance parameters. Our results [over five-year subperiods] show the following: (i) multivariate normality is rejected in most subperiods, (ii) residual checks reveal no significant departures from the multivariate i.i.d. assumption, and (iii) mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio is not rejected as frequently once it is allowed for the possibility of non-normal errors.

Finite-Sample Diagnostics for Multivariate Regressions with Applications to Linear Asset Pricing Models

In this paper, we propose several finite-sample specification tests for multivariate linear regressions (MLR) with applications to asset pricing models. We focus on departures from the assumption of i.i.d. errors assumption, at univariate and multivariate levels, with Gaussian and non-Gaussian (including Student t) errors. The univariate tests studied extend existing exact procedures by allowing for unspecified parameters in the error distributions (e.g., the degrees of freedom in the case of the Student t distribution). The multivariate tests are based on properly standardized multivariate residuals to ensure invariance to MLR coefficients and error covariances. We consider tests for serial correlation, tests for multivariate GARCH and sign-type tests against general dependencies and asymmetries. The procedures proposed provide exact versions of those applied in Shanken (1990) which consist in combining univariate specification tests. Specifically, we combine tests across equations using the MC test procedure to avoid Bonferroni-type bounds. Since non-Gaussian based tests are not pivotal, we apply the “maximized MC” (MMC) test method [Dufour (2002)], where the MC p-value for the tested hypothesis (which depends on nuisance parameters) is maximized (with respect to these nuisance parameters) to control the test’s significance level. The tests proposed are applied to an asset pricing model with observable risk-free rates, using monthly returns on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) portfolios over five-year subperiods from 1926-1995. Our empirical results reveal the following. Whereas univariate exact tests indicate significant serial correlation, asymmetries and GARCH in some equations, such effects are much less prevalent once error cross-equation covariances are accounted for. In addition, significant departures from the i.i.d. hypothesis are less evident once we allow for non-Gaussian errors.

Exact Skewness-Kurtosis Tests for Multivariate Normality and Goodness-of-fit in Multivariate Regressions with Application to Asset Pricing Models

We study the problem of testing the error distribution in a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The tests are functions of appropriately standardized multivariate least squares residuals whose distribution is invariant to the unknown cross-equation error covariance matrix. Empirical multivariate skewness and kurtosis criteria are then compared to simulation-based estimate of their expected value under the hypothesized distribution. Special cases considered include testing multivariate normal, Student t; normal mixtures and stable error models. In the Gaussian case, finite-sample versions of the standard multivariate skewness and kurtosis tests are derived. To do this, we exploit simple, double and multi-stage Monte Carlo test methods. For non-Gaussian distribution families involving nuisance parameters, confidence sets are derived for the the nuisance parameters and the error distribution. The procedures considered are evaluated in a small simulation experi-ment. Finally, the tests are applied to an asset pricing model with observable risk-free rates, using monthly returns on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) portfolios over five-year subperiods from 1926-1995.

Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions

In this paper, we propose exact inference procedures for asset pricing models that can be formulated in the framework of a multivariate linear regression (CAPM), allowing for stable error distributions. The normality assumption on the distribution of stock returns is usually rejected in empirical studies, due to excess kurtosis and asymmetry. To model such data, we propose a comprehensive statistical approach which allows for alternative - possibly asymmetric - heavy tailed distributions without the use of large-sample approximations. The methods suggested are based on Monte Carlo test techniques. Goodness-of-fit tests are formally incorporated to ensure that the error distributions considered are empirically sustainable, from which exact confidence sets for the unknown tail area and asymmetry parameters of the stable error distribution are derived. Tests for the efficiency of the market portfolio (zero intercepts) which explicitly allow for the presence of (unknown) nuisance parameter in the stable error distribution are derived. The methods proposed are applied to monthly returns on 12 portfolios of the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1926-1995 (5 year subperiods). We find that stable possibly skewed distributions provide statistically significant improvement in goodness-of-fit and lead to fewer rejections of the efficiency hypothesis.

Screening for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: an information statement by the scoliosis research society international task force

Background: Routine screening of scoliosis is a controversial subject and screening efforts vary greatly around the world. METHODS: Consensus was sought among an international group of experts (seven spine surgeons and one clinical epidemiologist) using a modified Delphi approach. The consensus achieved was based on careful analysis of a recent critical review of the literature on scoliosis screening, performed using a conceptual framework of analysis focusing on five main dimensions: technical, clinical, program, cost and treatment effectiveness. FINDINGS: A consensus was obtained in all five dimensions of analysis, resulting in 10 statements and recommendations. In summary, there is scientific evidence to support the value of scoliosis screening with respect to technical efficacy, clinical, program and treatment effectiveness, but there insufficient evidence to make a statement with respect to cost effectiveness. Scoliosis screening should be aimed at identifying suspected cases of scoliosis that will be referred for diagnostic evaluation and confirmed, or ruled out, with a clinically significant scoliosis. The scoliometer is currently the best tool available for scoliosis screening and there is moderate evidence to recommend referral with values between 5 degrees and 7 degrees. There is moderate evidence that scoliosis screening allows for detection and referral of patients at an earlier stage of the clinical course, and there is low evidence suggesting that scoliosis patients detected by screening are less likely to need surgery than those who did not have screening. There is strong evidence to support treatment by bracing. INTERPRETATION: This information statement by an expert panel supports scoliosis screening in 4 of the 5 domains studied, using a framework of analysis which includes all of the World Health Organisation criteria for a valid screening procedure.

Réglementation des technologies de l'information au Québec : la philosophie du projet de loi 161 en regard du droit canadien

Échange automatisé de messages préprogrammés, communication par courrier électronique, gestion électronique de documents (GED), Data warehouse, EDI… Le monde des affaires vibre depuis quelques années au rythme des nouvelles technologies de l’information. Le droit commercial lui, a du mal à emboîter le pas. Pourtant, les problèmes juridiques soulevés par ce règne de l’immatériel sont majeurs et les incertitudes, grandissantes. La mobilité accrue que permettent ces techniques modernes de transmission et de gestion des informations suggère une solution concertée, qui plus est, tiendra compte de l’évolution hâtée dans ce domaine. Le fondement en a été donné à travers la Loi type des Nations unies sur le commerce électronique en 1996. Plusieurs législations l’ont choisi comme modèle. La législation canadienne est de celles-ci, avec notamment sa Loi uniforme sur le commerce électronique adoptée par la Conférence pour l’harmonisation des lois au Canada en 1999. La législation québécoise aussi a suivi le mouvement. Le 16 juin 2000, un avant-projet de loi portant sur la normalisation juridique des technologies de l’information fut déposé devant l’Assemblée nationale. Cet avant-projet de loi est devenu projet de loi 161, Loi concernant le cadre juridique des technologies de l’information. Mais au-delà des apparences, le législateur québécois semble s’être écarté de la philosophie qui a influencé la Loi type et, conséquemment, la Loi uniforme. Si cette remarque est vérifiée, il faudra craindre l’isolement du Québec et, par ricochet, un positionnement peu concurrentiel dans le commerce international.

Gérer la ville au Bénin : la mise en œuvre du Registre foncier urbain à Cotonou, Porto-Novo et Bohicon

La gestion des villes d’Afrique de l’Ouest pose problème à la période contemporaine : extension urbaine non maitrisée, services de base insuffisants, insécurité foncière. À travers l’aide internationale, d’importantes réformes visant à améliorer son efficacité ont pourtant été mises en place, mais elles semblent avoir été inefficaces. Dépassant ce constat d’échec, la thèse vise à comprendre comment se déroule l’acte de gérer la ville dans les circonstances particulières des villes d’Afrique de l’Ouest. La mise en œuvre du Registre foncier urbain (RFU), système d’information foncière municipal multi-fonctions introduit au Bénin à travers des programmes de développement au début des années 1990, constitue le prisme à travers lequel la gestion urbaine est analysée. Celle-ci est ainsi approchée par les actes plutôt que par les discours. S’appuyant sur une démarche socio-anthropologique, la mise en œuvre de l’instrument est analysée depuis le point de vue des acteurs locaux et selon une double grille de lecture : d’une part, il s’agit de saisir les logiques de l’appropriation locale dont le RFU a fait l’objet au sein des administrations; d’autre part, il s’agit de comprendre son interaction avec le territoire, notamment avec les dynamiques complexes d’accès au sol et de sécurisation foncière. Une étude de cas multiple a été menée dans trois communes : Cotonou, Porto-Novo et Bohicon. Deux ensembles de conclusions en découlent. Tout d’abord, le RFU s’est imposé comme l’instrument pivot de la fiscalité locale, mais est mis en œuvre de manière minimale. Ce fonctionnement particulier est une adaptation optimale à un contexte fait de rivalités professionnelles au sein d’administrations cloisonnées, d’enjeux politico-financiers liés aux différentes sources de revenus communaux et de tensions politico-institutionnelles liées à une décentralisation tardive. Les impacts du RFU en termes de développement des compétences professionnelles nationales sont insuffisants pour réformer la gestion urbaine depuis l’intérieur de l’administration municipale. Ensuite, alors qu’il vise à centraliser l’information sur les propriétaires présumés de la terre, le RFU se heurte à la marchandisation de cette information et à la territorialisation de la régulation foncière. La mise en œuvre du RFU s’en trouve affectée de deux manières : d’une part, elle s’insère dans ces circuits marchands de l’information foncière, avec cependant peu de succès ; d’autre part, elle a un impact différencié selon les territoires de la régulation foncière. En définitive, l’acte de gérer la ville au Bénin n’est pas devenu automatique avec l’introduction d’instruments comme le RFU. La municipalité se repose plutôt sur les piliers classiques de l’action publique, l’administration et le politique, pour gérer la ville plurielle de manière différenciée. À l’endroit des concepteurs d’action publique, cette thèse plaide pour une prise en compte des modes de régulation existant dans les sociétés africaines, fussent-ils pluriels, reconnaissant les voies originales que prend la construction des institutions en Afrique.